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<article xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:oasis="http://docs.oasis-open.org/ns/oasis-exchange/table" xml:lang="en" dtd-version="3.0" article-type="research-article">
  <front>
    <journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">WCD</journal-id><journal-title-group>
    <journal-title>Weather and Climate Dynamics</journal-title>
    <abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">WCD</abbrev-journal-title><abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Weather Clim. Dynam.</abbrev-journal-title>
  </journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">2698-4016</issn><publisher>
    <publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
    <publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
  </publisher></journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/wcd-7-1875-2026</article-id><title-group><article-title>Global characterisation of the vertical temperature anomaly structure of heat extremes over land in ERA5</article-title><alt-title>Vertical temperature anomaly structure of heat extremes</alt-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes" rid="aff1">
          <name><surname>Hotz</surname><given-names>Belinda</given-names></name>
          <email>belinda.hotz@env.ethz.ch</email>
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0002-3725-498X</ext-link></contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff1">
          <name><surname>Wernli</surname><given-names>Heini</given-names></name>
          
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9674-4837</ext-link></contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff1 aff2 aff3">
          <name><surname>Röthlisberger</surname><given-names>Matthias</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff1">
          <name><surname>Noyelle</surname><given-names>Robin</given-names></name>
          
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0001-0127-6602</ext-link></contrib>
        <aff id="aff1"><label>1</label><institution>Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff2"><label>2</label><institution>Mobiliar Lab for Natural Risks, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff3"><label>3</label><institution>Swiss Mobiliar Insurance, Bern, Switzerland</institution>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <author-notes><corresp id="corr1">Belinda Hotz (belinda.hotz@env.ethz.ch)</corresp></author-notes><pub-date><day>29</day><month>September</month><year>2026</year></pub-date>
      
      <volume>7</volume>
      <issue>3</issue>
      <fpage>1875</fpage><lpage>1897</lpage>
      <history>
        <date date-type="received"><day>18</day><month>March</month><year>2026</year></date>
           <date date-type="rev-request"><day>31</day><month>March</month><year>2026</year></date>
           <date date-type="rev-recd"><day>24</day><month>July</month><year>2026</year></date>
           <date date-type="accepted"><day>30</day><month>August</month><year>2026</year></date>
      </history>
      <permissions>
        <copyright-statement>Copyright: © 2026 Belinda Hotz et al.</copyright-statement>
        <copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
      <license license-type="open-access"><license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/7/1875/2026/wcd-7-1875-2026.html">This article is available from https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/7/1875/2026/wcd-7-1875-2026.html</self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/7/1875/2026/wcd-7-1875-2026.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/7/1875/2026/wcd-7-1875-2026.pdf</self-uri>
      <abstract><title>Abstract</title>

      <p id="d2e121">The formation of surface heat extremes is usually described in terms of surface processes and upper-level dynamics. However, their full vertical temperature profile contains additional essential information about the involved processes. So far, it is an open question whether heat extremes are associated with characteristic vertical temperature anomaly profiles and, if they exist, how they vary across the globe. In this study, we globally and systematically classify vertical temperature anomaly profiles during annual maximum 2 m temperature events (TXx) using a <inline-formula><mml:math id="M1" display="inline"><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-means clustering approach. After normalising and scaling the anomaly profiles, we find three clusters whose global distribution closely follows the polar, mid-latitude, and tropical climate zones. The three clusters capture key structural differences of heat extremes. Within the tropical cluster, positive temperature anomalies during TXx events are vertically confined to the (often deep) boundary layer and intensify progressively in the days leading up to the event, while the upper troposphere is not deviating from its climatological mean. The mid-latitude cluster also exhibits bottom-heavy temperature anomalies, which, however, extend throughout the full troposphere, showing a strong vertical coupling during TXx events. In the polar cluster, the events are characterised by deep tropospheric positive anomalies, accompanied by the erosion of the near-surface inversion layer, resulting in a shallow layer of particularly strong temperature anomalies near the ground. These results show that while multiple physical mechanisms can generate a heat extreme, at first order, the median normalised and scaled temperature anomaly profiles during heat extremes are similar to each other within a given climate zone. Deviations from the cluster median during individual TXx events mainly come from the variability between TXx events rather than the variability between the median profiles at different grid points. Finally, the normalised and scaled temperature anomaly profiles of the most extreme TXx events are particularly well represented by the grid point's median profile for all TXx events, suggesting a typical dynamic of the most extreme heat events.</p>
  </abstract>
    
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung</funding-source>
<award-id>219244</award-id>
<award-id>216710</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
  </front>
<body>
      

<sec id="Ch1.S1" sec-type="intro">
  <label>1</label><title>Introduction</title>
      <p id="d2e140">Particularly in the tropics, the average vertical temperature structure of the atmosphere is set by an equilibrium between surface sensible and latent heat fluxes, leading to convection, and radiative cooling by outgoing long-wave radiation: a state known as radiative-convective equilibrium <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx34" id="paren.1"/>. Frequent convective events and mixing by gravity waves result in vertical temperature profiles that closely follow the moist adiabats with weak horizontal gradients <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx42 bib1.bibx17 bib1.bibx77" id="paren.2"/>. In the mid-latitudes, the atmosphere is more stable with respect to convection compared to the tropics, i.e., the lapse rate (defined as <inline-formula><mml:math id="M2" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">d</mml:mi><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">d</mml:mi><mml:mi>z</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) is smaller than the moist adiabatic lapse rate, as both convection and large-scale dynamics (e.g., baroclinic instability) contribute to the upward transport of energy <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx77" id="paren.3"/>. Finally, polar regions are in a radiative-advective equilibrium as these regions feature cold and ice-covered surfaces with high albedo, preventing the formation of diurnal convection and leading to near-surface temperature inversion layers with strong vertical temperature gradients that decouple the surface from the large-scale flow aloft <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx14 bib1.bibx46 bib1.bibx68" id="paren.4"/>. At synoptic time scales, vertical temperature profiles can deviate significantly from their climatological mean, especially during extreme surface temperature events <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx25" id="paren.5"><named-content content-type="pre">e.g.</named-content></xref>. Therefore, vertical temperature profiles result from the coupling between large-scale dynamics and surface processes, and can thus provide insight into the mechanisms controlling surface extremes, such as extreme precipitation or heat events. For example, the intensity of extreme precipitation events has been shown to scale according to their vertical temperature (and wind speed) profile <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx48" id="paren.6"/>. However, little is known about vertical temperature profiles during heat extremes and how they are set by different physical mechanisms.</p>
      <p id="d2e182">Temperature anomalies arise from three different categories of physical processes <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx58" id="paren.7"><named-content content-type="pre">e.g.</named-content></xref>: horizontal transport of air from climatologically warmer or colder regions (advection), adiabatic warming and cooling by vertical motions, and diabatic warming and cooling by various processes including turbulent surface fluxes, radiation, and latent heat release. In mid-latitudes, surface heat extremes are typically associated with an upper-level anticyclonic flow <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx83 bib1.bibx74" id="paren.8"/>, originating either from blocked anticyclones, recurrent Rossby wave patterns, or subtropical ridges <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx53 bib1.bibx59 bib1.bibx73" id="paren.9"/>. Upstream diabatic heating helps to form and maintain these upper-level anticyclones and blocks <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx54 bib1.bibx75 bib1.bibx87" id="paren.10"/>. In the lower troposphere, the anticyclonic flow promotes near-surface warming via adiabatic warming through subsidence and advection of warm air masses either from crossing climatological temperature gradients or from anomalously directed flows <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx2 bib1.bibx62 bib1.bibx86 bib1.bibx58 bib1.bibx36" id="paren.11"><named-content content-type="pre">e.g.</named-content></xref>. Beyond large-scale dynamical processes, near-surface temperatures are strongly governed by land–atmosphere interactions in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Over warm surfaces, sensible heat fluxes can warm the near-surface air, and their relative intensity compared to latent heat fluxes depends on the soil moisture content and, thus, the evapotranspiration regime – energy-limited or soil-moisture-limited <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx67 bib1.bibx66" id="paren.12"/>. The stationarity of blocking situations can sustain heat extremes <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx57" id="paren.13"/>, during which soil drying in soil-moisture limited regions enhances sensible heating, further intensifying near-surface temperatures <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx18 bib1.bibx32 bib1.bibx67 bib1.bibx49" id="paren.14"/>. Aside from local sensible heating, the advection of heat from upstream dry regions can also exacerbate near-surface temperatures <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx64" id="paren.15"/>.</p>
      <p id="d2e217">Outside the mid-latitudes, a different mix of processes generates near-surface heat extremes <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx58" id="paren.16"/>. In equatorial regions with dry surface conditions, enhanced sensible heat fluxes lead to a stronger warming at the surface and a larger lapse rate in the lower troposphere than over wet surfaces, whereas the mid- and upper tropospheric lapse rate remains approximately moist adiabatic across the tropics due to weak horizontal temperature gradients <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx70 bib1.bibx26" id="paren.17"/>. Heat extremes therefore occur when moist convection is suppressed, either due to reduced soil and PBL moisture <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx8 bib1.bibx85 bib1.bibx12" id="paren.18"/> or entrainment of dry air <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx15" id="paren.19"/>. In terms of the near-surface temperature anomaly decomposition by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx58" id="text.20"/>, this leads to high diabatic contributions. Consequently, surface temperature anomalies over tropical land reflect variations in downward shortwave radiation, soil moisture availability, and surface energy partitioning <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx66 bib1.bibx8 bib1.bibx12 bib1.bibx82" id="paren.21"><named-content content-type="pre">e.g.</named-content></xref>. In contrast, in polar regions, poleward transport of warm and moist air can lead to heat extremes, including over Antarctica <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx80" id="paren.22"/>. Furthermore, as indicated by major melt events in Greenland <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx22" id="paren.23"/>, heat extremes in polar regions can also be associated with upper-level anticyclones, which give rise to poleward warm advection along their western flank, and subsidence within the anticyclones <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx50 bib1.bibx58" id="paren.24"><named-content content-type="pre">e.g.</named-content></xref>. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx3" id="text.25"/> and <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx80" id="text.26"/> also found that during the intrusion of warm and moist air leading to the heatwave in eastern Antarctica in 2022, the near-surface temperature inversion was eroded due to increased moisture and incoming long-wave radiation.</p>
      <p id="d2e258">Despite our growing understanding of heatwave dynamics across the globe, the exceptional intensity of several recent events remains difficult to explain within current theoretical frameworks. One extraordinary intense heatwave occurred in the Pacific Northwest region in 2021 <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx55 bib1.bibx79" id="paren.27"><named-content content-type="pre">e.g.</named-content></xref>. While such a heatwave was virtually impossible according to classical statistical approaches based on historical data <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx55" id="paren.28"/>, long simulations suggest that even though such heatwaves are possible, they are very rare <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx37 bib1.bibx4" id="paren.29"/>. Recent studies have investigated vertical temperature profiles during heat extremes, hypothesising that the vertical structure of temperature may be important for explaining the intensity of recent surface heat extremes <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx41 bib1.bibx65 bib1.bibx84" id="paren.30"><named-content content-type="pre">e.g.</named-content></xref>. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx39" id="text.31"/> showed in case studies over Europe that heat can accumulate within the PBL over multiple days during heat extremes: Heat preserved in the nocturnal residual layer during the night can re-enter the PBL the following day, allowing the near-surface temperatures to rise progressively in the course of several days. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx84" id="text.32"/> proposed that, similar to the tropics, the surface intensity of mid-latitude heat extremes is constrained by a moist convective limit controlled by upper-level dynamics. Following this argument, the theory has been extended for cases where convective inhibition or dilution by entrainment suppresses or weakens moist convection <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx15 bib1.bibx29" id="paren.33"/>, and also for dry convective cases <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx43" id="paren.34"/>. Indeed, record-breaking high temperature anomalies occurred in the mid- and upper-troposphere, for example, during the Pacific Northwest 2021 heatwave. These anomalies were produced by strong advection and latent heating within a warm conveyor belt of an upstream cyclone <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx65 bib1.bibx47 bib1.bibx25" id="paren.35"/>. They then enhanced vertical stability and favoured the build-up of extreme near-surface temperatures <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx41 bib1.bibx84" id="paren.36"/>. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx25" id="text.37"/> showed that three recent record-shattering heatwaves featured vertically deep but bottom-heavy temperature anomalies. However, the magnitude of these anomalies and their underlying processes varied strongly between the cases. Similarly, during blocking situations, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx7" id="text.38"/> and <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx40" id="text.39"/> found vertically deep positive temperature anomalies, e.g. during the Russian heatwave in 2010. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx28" id="text.40"/> classified vertical temperature profiles during heat extremes in Europe and found several types depending on the vertical extent of the positive anomalies and referred to them as near-surface, lower-tropospheric, higher-tropospheric, and omnipresent temperature anomalies.</p>
      <p id="d2e310">So far, no global studies have systematically investigated the structure of vertical temperature profiles during surface heat extremes, and therefore, our knowledge of the vertical structure relies on a few case studies and specific regions. In this study, we document the vertical temperature structure during surface heat extremes on a global scale and investigate its variability between regions and individual events. Specifically, we address the following questions: <list list-type="order"><list-item>
      <p id="d2e315">Are there representative vertical profiles of temperature anomalies during TXx events across the globe, and how do these profiles vary geographically (Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S3.SS1"/> and <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S3.SS3"/>)?</p></list-item><list-item>
      <p id="d2e323">How does this vertical profile develop in the days before and after the TXx events (Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S3.SS2"/>)?</p></list-item><list-item>
      <p id="d2e329">How well do the representative profiles agree with median profiles during TXx events at individual grid points, and how variable are the profiles across events (Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S4"/>)?</p></list-item><list-item>
      <p id="d2e335">Is the structure of the vertical temperature anomaly profiles during the most intense TXx events similar to profiles during average TXx events (Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S5"/>)?</p></list-item></list></p>
      <p id="d2e340">In the following, we introduce the data and methods used in this study in Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S2"/>, and then address the questions introduced above in three results sections. Finally, we present our conclusions in Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S6"/>.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2">
  <label>2</label><title>Data and methods</title>
      <p id="d2e356">This study is based on the global reanalysis dataset ERA5 provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). We expect the vertical structure of heat extremes to be well-captured in ERA5, as these events are large-scale phenomena whose vertical structures are generally well-represented in the reanalysis <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx23" id="paren.41"/>. The ERA5 reanalysis has important limitations in its representation of the boundary layer and near-surface vertical structure. The near-surface maximum temperatures are generally underestimated in ERA5 <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx31" id="paren.42"/>. Furthermore, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx43" id="text.43"/> have shown that ERA5 can have biases in super-adiabatic layers in elevated arid areas compared to observational soundings. Additionally, ERA5 tends to overestimate the surface latent heat flux over land, indicating that the partitioning of surface energy to heat and drought stress is biased <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx35" id="paren.44"/>, which can influence the boundary layer vertical structure. However, based on regional studies, the correspondence of ERA5 to observational soundings is relatively good <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx9" id="paren.45"><named-content content-type="pre">e.g.</named-content></xref>. We use ERA5 in three-hourly temporal and 0.5° <inline-formula><mml:math id="M3" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.5° spatial resolution on the lowermost 98 hybrid sigma–pressure levels (extending to about 30 hPa) from 1951 to 2023 <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx23 bib1.bibx71" id="paren.46"/>. We focus on land grid points only, assuming differences in the physical processes of heat extremes and, therefore, in their vertical structure, over land and ocean, and define land grid points as those that are more than half covered by land.</p>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS1">
  <label>2.1</label><title>Normalised temperature anomalies</title>
      <p id="d2e394">At each grid point <inline-formula><mml:math id="M4" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and vertical hybrid sigma–pressure level <inline-formula><mml:math id="M5" display="inline"><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>, we compute the temperature anomaly <inline-formula><mml:math id="M6" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> by removing the climatological temperature <inline-formula><mml:math id="M7" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">clim</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> from the absolute temperature <inline-formula><mml:math id="M8" display="inline"><mml:mi>T</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>:

            <disp-formula id="Ch1.E1" content-type="numbered"><label>1</label><mml:math id="M9" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">clim</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>

          where <inline-formula><mml:math id="M10" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">clim</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is computed analogously to <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx58" id="text.47"/>: <inline-formula><mml:math id="M11" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">clim</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is the running mean over a 21-calendar-day and 9-year centred window of the absolute temperature at the same 3-hourly time step, resulting in an average over 189 d. Therefore, this <inline-formula><mml:math id="M12" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">clim</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> accounts for the climate change, the seasonality, and the diurnal cycle. The standard deviation of the temperature anomalies at each grid point and each vertical level <inline-formula><mml:math id="M13" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is calculated as:

            <disp-formula id="Ch1.E2" content-type="numbered"><label>2</label><mml:math id="M14" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:msqrt><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>N</mml:mi><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mover><mml:mo movablelimits="false">∑</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>N</mml:mi><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mover><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:msup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:msqrt><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>

          where <inline-formula><mml:math id="M15" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>N</mml:mi><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1533</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> results from the 21 d centred window across all 73 years. Although we expect that <inline-formula><mml:math id="M16" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> during summer has changed with global warming, its change is small compared to the change in the mean <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx19 bib1.bibx38" id="paren.48"/>. Studies focusing on the most extreme temperature events suggested that the standard deviation has remained roughly constant throughout this period <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx6 bib1.bibx51 bib1.bibx78" id="paren.49"/>. We, therefore, use a standard deviation that varies with the calendar day and time of the day but not throughout the years (i.e., no climate change variation), contrary to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M17" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">clim</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, which varies diurnally, seasonally, and inter-annually. Note that <inline-formula><mml:math id="M18" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is largest near the surface and decreases with altitude, except for polar regions (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="FC1"/>). To account for different variabilities vertically and across the globe, we then normalise the temperature anomalies as follows:

            <disp-formula id="Ch1.E3" content-type="numbered"><label>3</label><mml:math id="M19" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">norm</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mo>.</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>

          Therefore, we express the <italic>normalised</italic> temperature anomalies <inline-formula><mml:math id="M20" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">norm</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in units of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M21" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> in the following.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS2">
  <label>2.2</label><title>Heat extreme definition</title>
      <p id="d2e882">In this study, we define heat extremes based on the annual maximum three-hourly 2 m <italic>absolute</italic> temperatures at each grid point, so-called TXx events. This definition corresponds to the block-maxima approach, which is commonly used in extreme value statistics and for understanding heat extremes <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx55 bib1.bibx79 bib1.bibx84" id="paren.50"><named-content content-type="pre">e.g.</named-content></xref>. Note that in some regions, the TXx values are strongly influenced by inter-annual variability. Because a TXx event is defined as the single hottest three-hourly value within a given year, every year has a TXx event, even in years without any particularly hot days. Consequently, not all TXx events are exceptionally hot in a climatological sense. Furthermore, if a year has multiple distinct heatwaves, this definition considers only the single warmest event and disregards all others.</p>

      <fig id="F1" specific-use="star"><label>Figure 1</label><caption><p id="d2e895">Global distribution of the <bold>(a)</bold> median temperature anomaly (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M22" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) and <bold>(b)</bold> median <italic>normalised</italic> temperature anomaly (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M23" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">norm</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) on the lowermost model level, of TXx events from 1951 to 2023. Vertical profiles (grey lines) of <bold>(c)</bold> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M24" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <bold>(d)</bold> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M25" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">norm</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, and <bold>(e)</bold> <italic>scaled</italic> temperature anomaly (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M26" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) of all TXx events at a land grid point in central Europe (49° N, 12° E), marked in panels <bold>(a)</bold> and <bold>(b)</bold> with a red cross. The black and red lines in panel <bold>(e)</bold> show the median profile of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M27" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M28" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) over all TXx events and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M29" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> after the PCA, respectively (see Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S2.SS3"/> for details).</p></caption>
          <graphic xlink:href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/7/1875/2026/wcd-7-1875-2026-f01.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d2e1049">We analyse TXx events between 1951 and 2023, resulting in 73 heat extremes at each grid point. For those events, we then extract the temperature anomaly and the <italic>normalised</italic> temperature anomaly. Both the median temperature anomaly and the median <italic>normalised</italic> temperature anomaly (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F1"/>a, b) on the lowermost model level show meridional differences, with smaller values in the tropics compared to the mid-latitudes. While the median temperature anomalies decrease again towards the polar regions (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F1"/>a), the median <italic>normalised</italic> temperature anomalies further increase (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F1"/>b). The median magnitude of the near-surface temperature anomaly during TXx events in the mid-latitudes exceeds 8 K, which corresponds to 1.5–2.5<inline-formula><mml:math id="M30" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> in those regions. In contrast, tropical regions feature smaller temperature anomalies of up to 4 K, corresponding to 1–2<inline-formula><mml:math id="M31" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>. Polar regions exhibit temperature anomalies of 6–8 K, corresponding to 2–2.5<inline-formula><mml:math id="M32" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>.</p>
      <p id="d2e1090">If we assume the maximum temperature to occur within a season of approximately 90 d (see Fig. S1 in the Supplement) and the temperature distribution to be Gaussian, we expect the median <inline-formula><mml:math id="M33" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> with a 95 % probability between 2.3 and 2.5 by selecting 73 times a maximum from 90 values. Even though this <inline-formula><mml:math id="M34" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> is larger than the observed <inline-formula><mml:math id="M35" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> during TXx events in some regions, after the normalisation, most of the meridional differences disappear. Therefore, most of the meridional temperature differences occur because of climatologically different <inline-formula><mml:math id="M36" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> and less because of the underlying skewness of the distribution of extremes in each region.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS3">
  <label>2.3</label><title>Clustering</title>
      <p id="d2e1129">To determine regions with similar temperature anomaly profile structures, we employ a clustering algorithm. We aim to identify “characteristic” vertical profiles during heat extremes. At every grid point and for each TXx event <inline-formula><mml:math id="M37" display="inline"><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M38" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>n</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, …, 73), we extract the vertical profile of temperature anomalies <inline-formula><mml:math id="M39" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:msup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <italic>normalised</italic> temperature anomalies <inline-formula><mml:math id="M40" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">norm</mml:mi><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F1"/>c, d shows the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M41" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> profile during TXx events at an exemplary grid point in central Europe (49° N, 12° E). Importantly, at each grid point, the TXx events have different <italic>normalised</italic> anomalies at the lowermost <inline-formula><mml:math id="M42" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">norm</mml:mi><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0</mml:mn><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, because some events are more intense than others. To compare the associated profiles, we assume that the normalised vertical temperature anomaly profile scales with the normalised anomaly at the surface: <inline-formula><mml:math id="M43" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">norm</mml:mi><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">norm</mml:mi><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0</mml:mn><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>⋅</mml:mo><mml:mi>f</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, where <inline-formula><mml:math id="M44" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>f</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is the function we want to determine. Therefore, we scale each vertical profile by the lowermost <italic>normalised</italic> temperature anomaly <inline-formula><mml:math id="M45" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">norm</mml:mi><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0</mml:mn><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>:

            <disp-formula id="Ch1.E4" content-type="numbered"><label>4</label><mml:math id="M46" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">norm</mml:mi><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">norm</mml:mi><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0</mml:mn><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mo>.</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>

          We express the <italic>scaled</italic> temperature anomalies in units of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M47" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">s</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in the following, where <inline-formula><mml:math id="M48" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">s</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> represents the surface standard deviation (at <inline-formula><mml:math id="M49" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>). While <inline-formula><mml:math id="M50" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">norm</mml:mi><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> shows the departure from the climatology, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M51" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> shows at each vertical level whether the value reached is more or less anomalous than the one at the surface (see Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F1"/>e for an example). If <inline-formula><mml:math id="M52" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is smaller than one (which is typically the case), this indicates that the temperature anomaly at that level is less anomalous than the one at the surface. Furthermore, given the implied proportionality, a 2<inline-formula><mml:math id="M53" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-event at the surface is expected to have a temperature anomaly profile twice as anomalous as that of a 1<inline-formula><mml:math id="M54" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-event. At each grid point, the <italic>scaled</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M55" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> profiles exhibit many similarities across TXx events in different years (see Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F1"/>e for an example). To approximate this representative profile, we compute the multi-year median <italic>scaled</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M56" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> profile (black line in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F1"/>e):

            <disp-formula id="Ch1.E5" content-type="numbered"><label>5</label><mml:math id="M57" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:munder><mml:mtext>median</mml:mtext><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:munder><mml:mfenced open="(" close=")"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mfenced><mml:mo>.</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>

          Note that the median is used here to provide robustness to outliers, which arise from potentially including less extreme TXx events, as discussed in Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S2.SS2"/>.</p>
      <p id="d2e1712">Next, we perform a principal component analysis <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx81" id="paren.51"><named-content content-type="pre">PCA;</named-content></xref> of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M58" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> over all land grid points to reduce the dimension of the data set, as high-dimensional phase spaces can make the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M59" display="inline"><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-means clustering unreliable <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx1" id="paren.52"/>. We retain eight principal components, which explain over 95 % of the variance (the red line in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F1"/>e shows an example of a PCA-based profile). The vertical profiles projected on those eight components serve as the basis for the clustering algorithm.</p>
      <p id="d2e1764">For the clustering, we use an area-weighted <inline-formula><mml:math id="M60" display="inline"><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-means approach <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx27" id="paren.53"/>. A suitable number of clusters is determined based on the silhouette score <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx60" id="paren.54"/>, which is a commonly used measure to find an optimal number of clusters <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx69 bib1.bibx5" id="paren.55"><named-content content-type="pre">e.g.</named-content></xref>. The silhouette score for the retained components of the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M61" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> profiles peaks at three clusters, reaching a value of approximately 0.44 (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="FB1"/>a). We therefore use three clusters for the following analysis. The <italic>scikit-learn</italic> Python package served for computing the PCA, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M62" display="inline"><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-means clustering, and silhouette score <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx52" id="paren.56"/>.</p>
      <p id="d2e1819">Finally, for each cluster <inline-formula><mml:math id="M63" display="inline"><mml:mi>C</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>, we define the <italic>cluster profile</italic> as the median of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M64" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of the grid points within this cluster, based on the full vertical profile:

            <disp-formula id="Ch1.E6" content-type="numbered"><label>6</label><mml:math id="M65" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>C</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:munder><mml:mtext>median</mml:mtext><mml:mrow><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>∈</mml:mo><mml:mi>C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:munder><mml:mfenced open="(" close=")"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mfenced><mml:mo>.</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula></p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS4">
  <label>2.4</label><title>Measuring the variability of the vertical temperature anomaly profile</title>
      <p id="d2e1932">After the clustering, we want to assess how well the median cluster profile (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M66" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>C</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) represents the characteristic vertical profile (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M67" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) at each grid point that belongs to cluster <inline-formula><mml:math id="M68" display="inline"><mml:mi>C</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>. Furthermore, we are generally interested in how variable the temperature anomaly profiles are between TXx events at a given grid point. A classical mean squared error (MSE) decomposition into bias and variance allows us to investigate exactly these two objectives. Therefore, we calculate the MSE between the vertical temperature anomaly profile and the median cluster profile at each grid point, which we then decompose into a contribution from the squared bias of the cluster and the median vertical temperature anomaly profile, the variance of the TXx events at that grid point, and a covariance of both terms:

                <disp-formula specific-use="align" content-type="numbered"><mml:math id="M69" display="block"><mml:mtable displaystyle="true"><mml:mlabeledtr id="Ch1.E7"><mml:mtd><mml:mtext>7</mml:mtext></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true" class="stylechange"/><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">MSE</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true" class="stylechange"/><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>N</mml:mi><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:munderover><mml:mo movablelimits="false">∑</mml:mo><mml:mi>n</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>N</mml:mi><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:munderover><mml:msup><mml:mfenced open="(" close=")"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>C</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mfenced><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mlabeledtr><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mstyle class="stylechange" displaystyle="true"/></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle class="stylechange" displaystyle="true"/><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mfenced close=")" open="("><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>C</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mfenced><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true" class="stylechange"/></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true" class="stylechange"/><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>N</mml:mi><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:munderover><mml:mo movablelimits="false">∑</mml:mo><mml:mi>n</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>N</mml:mi><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:munderover><mml:msup><mml:mfenced close=")" open="("><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mfenced><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mstyle class="stylechange" displaystyle="true"/></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle class="stylechange" displaystyle="true"/><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn><mml:mfenced close=")" open="("><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>C</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mfenced></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr><mml:mlabeledtr id="Ch1.E8"><mml:mtd><mml:mtext>8</mml:mtext></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mstyle class="stylechange" displaystyle="true"/></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle class="stylechange" displaystyle="true"/><mml:mo>⋅</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>N</mml:mi><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:munderover><mml:mo movablelimits="false">∑</mml:mo><mml:mi>n</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>N</mml:mi><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:munderover><mml:mfenced close=")" open="("><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mfenced><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mlabeledtr></mml:mtable></mml:math></disp-formula>

          where <inline-formula><mml:math id="M70" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>N</mml:mi><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is the number of TXx events that we consider at each grid point. The first term on the right-hand side of Eq. (8) denotes the <italic>(squared) bias of the median grid point profile</italic> relative to the cluster profile, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M71" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">bias</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, i.e. how the median for this grid point compares to the median of all other grid points in the same cluster. The second term describes the <italic>variance between TXx events</italic> (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M72" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">var</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>), which is independent of our clustering as we cluster on the median profiles. The third term is the <italic>covariance term</italic>, describing the coupling between the variance and the bias. By definition, the sum of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M73" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is equal to zero, if <inline-formula><mml:math id="M74" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is the mean. Since we use the median, this term slightly deviates from zero, but the deviation is much smaller than the other two terms (not shown), and we will neglect it in the following:

            <disp-formula id="Ch1.E9" content-type="numbered"><label>9</label><mml:math id="M75" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mtable rowspacing="0.2ex" class="split" displaystyle="true" columnalign="right left"><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">MSE</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mo>≈</mml:mo><mml:munder><mml:munder class="underbrace"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mfenced close=")" open="("><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>C</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mfenced><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">︸</mml:mo></mml:munder><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">bias</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:munder></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr><mml:mtr><mml:mtd/><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:munder><mml:munder class="underbrace"><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>N</mml:mi><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:munderover><mml:mo movablelimits="false">∑</mml:mo><mml:mi>n</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>N</mml:mi><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:munderover><mml:msup><mml:mfenced close=")" open="("><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mfenced><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">︸</mml:mo></mml:munder><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">var</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:munder><mml:mo>.</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr></mml:mtable></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula></p>
      <p id="d2e2762">As already mentioned in Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S2.SS2"/>, not all TXx events are particularly extreme. To reduce the influence of comparatively colder TXx events, which we regard as outliers, the clustering was based on the median <inline-formula><mml:math id="M76" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> profile at each grid point. For the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M77" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">bias</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M78" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">var</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> analysis, we additionally exclude the 10 coldest events from each cluster because they tend to show large deviations from the cluster median and provide little information on the most relevant, i.e., most intense heat extremes (see Fig. S4).</p>
      <p id="d2e2826">To assess how <inline-formula><mml:math id="M79" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">bias</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M80" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">var</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> vary vertically, we average the MSE vertically over the PBL, the free troposphere, and above the tropopause separately. As the clustering and previous analyses have been performed on hybrid sigma-pressure levels, we need to interpolate the profiles onto pressure levels. First, we compute the squared error for each TXx event and grid point on hybrid sigma-pressure levels. Then, we linearly interpolate the squared error values of each TXx event between the surface pressure and the PBL height pressure, the PBL height pressure and the tropopause pressure, and the tropopause pressure and the minimum pressure, respectively. Finally, at each grid point, we compute the MSE over all TXx events within each of the three layers:

            <disp-formula id="Ch1.E10" content-type="numbered"><label>10</label><mml:math id="M81" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mtable rowspacing="0.2ex" class="split" displaystyle="true" columnalign="right left"><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">MSE</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">layer</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>max⁡</mml:mo></mml:msub><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>min⁡</mml:mo></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:munderover><mml:mo movablelimits="false">∫</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>min⁡</mml:mo></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>max⁡</mml:mo></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:munderover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">var</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">d</mml:mi><mml:mi>p</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr><mml:mtr><mml:mtd/><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>max⁡</mml:mo></mml:msub><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>min⁡</mml:mo></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:munderover><mml:mo movablelimits="false">∫</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>min⁡</mml:mo></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>max⁡</mml:mo></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:munderover><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">bias</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">d</mml:mi><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr></mml:mtable></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>

          where we integrate the pressure between the minimum and maximum pressures (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M82" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>min⁡</mml:mo></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M83" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>max⁡</mml:mo></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) of each layer and take its average before averaging the individual events.</p>
      <p id="d2e3072">Aside from the squared bias and variance computations for the <italic>scaled</italic> temperature anomaly profiles, we also compute the squared bias and variance analogously for the <italic>normalised</italic> temperature anomaly profiles. To deduce a normalised <inline-formula><mml:math id="M84" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">norm</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>C</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> from the scaled <inline-formula><mml:math id="M85" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>C</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> at a given grid point, we multiply <inline-formula><mml:math id="M86" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>C</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> with the near-surface <inline-formula><mml:math id="M87" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">norm</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of the TXx events:

            <disp-formula id="Ch1.E11" content-type="numbered"><label>11</label><mml:math id="M88" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">norm</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>C</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>C</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>⋅</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">norm</mml:mi><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0</mml:mn><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>.</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula></p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3">
  <label>3</label><title>Classifying the vertical temperature anomaly profiles</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS1">
  <label>3.1</label><title>Vertical temperature anomaly profiles globally classified in three clusters</title>
      <p id="d2e3253">The area-weighted <inline-formula><mml:math id="M89" display="inline"><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-means clustering of the vertical profiles of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M90" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> reveals three distinct clusters (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F2"/>). The spatial distribution of the clusters closely follows the climate zones, which constitutes a first key result of this study. This meridional pattern implies that our clustering grouped tropical regions in cluster 1, the mid-latitudes in cluster 2, and polar regions in cluster 3 (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F2"/>a). Hereafter, we will refer to these clusters as the tropical, mid-latitude, and polar clusters, respectively. Having distinct clusters for the climate zones highlights distinct processes leading to heat extremes in the tropics, mid-latitudes, and polar regions, and this therefore suggests that this is by far the dominant distinction compared to regional variations inside each climate zone. This is also recognised in the existing literature on heat extremes in the tropics, mid-latitudes, and polar regions <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx86 bib1.bibx8 bib1.bibx58 bib1.bibx80" id="paren.57"><named-content content-type="pre">e.g.</named-content></xref>.</p>

      <fig id="F2" specific-use="star"><label>Figure 2</label><caption><p id="d2e3292"><bold>(a)</bold> Global distribution of the three area-weighted clusters over land: cluster 1 (yellow, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M91" display="inline"><mml:mi>N</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M92" display="inline"><mml:mo>=</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 26 325 grid points), cluster 2 (red, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M93" display="inline"><mml:mi>N</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M94" display="inline"><mml:mo>=</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 30 138), and cluster 3 (blue, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M95" display="inline"><mml:mi>N</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M96" display="inline"><mml:mo>=</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 31 626). <bold>(b, c)</bold> median and interquartile range of the median vertical <inline-formula><mml:math id="M97" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> profiles of all grid points in each cluster, <bold>(b)</bold> on sigma-hybrid model levels and <bold>(c)</bold> on pressure levels (surface pressure set to the reference pressure 1000 hPa).</p></caption>
          <graphic xlink:href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/7/1875/2026/wcd-7-1875-2026-f02.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d2e3368">In the tropical cluster, we find that the positive temperature anomalies are confined to the near-surface and lower troposphere, with the highest temperature anomalies at about 900 hPa. In contrast, the mid- and upper-troposphere do not exhibit any temperature anomaly. The maximum boundary layer height, based on the Richardson number criterion <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx16" id="paren.58"/>, varies in these regions on days with TXx events roughly between 700 and 500 hPa (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="FA1"/>a). Since our temperature anomaly within the tropics is confined to about 600 hPa, this indicates that the temperature anomalies are restricted to the PBL. Note that not all tropical regions feature such deep PBLs, which are most frequent in arid subtropical regions (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="FA1"/>a). Due to variations of the PBL height, the interquartile range of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M98" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> between model levels 100 and 120 is larger in the tropical compared to the other clusters (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F2"/>b). However, the fact that across the tropics, TXx temperature profiles have no anomaly in the free troposphere leads to the tropical and subtropical regions being clustered together. The absence of an upper-level temperature anomaly is consistent with the weak horizontal temperature gradient in the tropical free troposphere. This gradient is typically weak since gravity waves efficiently adjust the free-tropospheric temperature profile to a moist adiabatic profile throughout the tropics <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx70 bib1.bibx42 bib1.bibx24" id="paren.59"/>. Recent research on tropical heat extremes suggested that they occur during periods of suppressed moist convection, caused either by reduced near-surface moisture <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx8 bib1.bibx12" id="paren.60"/> or the entrainment of dry air <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx15" id="paren.61"/>. This suppression allows for the development of a deep PBL through dry convection within the PBL, facilitating the accumulation of heat and resulting in the high temperature anomalies observed in this cluster's distinct vertical profile.</p>
      <p id="d2e3404">Similar to the tropical cluster, the mid-latitude cluster features a deep layer of uniform and extremely high temperature anomalies near the surface (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F2"/>b, c). However, in contrast to the tropical cluster, it exhibits vertically deep temperature anomalies that extend throughout the troposphere. The temperature anomaly profile is bottom-heavy, with the largest temperature anomalies in terms of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M99" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M100" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> near the surface and in the lower troposphere since the standard deviation decreases from the surface to the free troposphere (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="FC1"/>). The same structure with the largest anomalies near the surface but still vertically deep anomalies was also noted by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx45" id="text.62"/> during extreme summers, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx25" id="text.63"/> during recent record-shattering heatwaves, and <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx28" id="text.64"/> during European heat extremes. The presence of these deep temperature anomalies suggests that heat extremes in the mid-latitudes are more vertically organised than those over the tropics, likely due to dynamical coupling with the upper-level anticyclonic flow. Aside from the vertically organised behaviour of the mid-latitude cluster, it is particularly striking that, despite well-documented regional differences in the relative importance of different processes for the formation of mid-latitude heatwaves <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx39 bib1.bibx86 bib1.bibx58 bib1.bibx25" id="paren.65"><named-content content-type="pre">e.g.</named-content></xref>, the vertical profiles in all these regions ultimately end up in the same mid-latitude cluster, underscoring their commonality in terms of vertical structure compared to other climate zones.</p>
      <p id="d2e3450">For the polar cluster, we also find temperature anomalies that extend throughout the troposphere, similar to the mid-latitude cluster (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F2"/>b, c). However, the layer near the surface with extremely high <inline-formula><mml:math id="M101" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is much thinner at high latitudes. As discussed in the introduction, climatologically, polar regions feature strong temperature inversions over the cold surface, leading to thin stable boundary layers with relatively small temperature variability (see Figs. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="FA1"/>b and <xref ref-type="fig" rid="FC1"/>). Therefore, the large near-surface temperature anomalies in the TXx profiles could hint at the erosion of this inversion layer and the mixing down of warmer air during heat extremes. This finding aligns with <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx3" id="text.66"/> and <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx80" id="text.67"/>, who showed the erosion of the near-surface temperature inversion during the 2022 Antarctica heatwave. The mid- and upper-tropospheric <italic>normalised</italic> temperature anomalies are relatively weak compared to the near-surface anomalies. Given the large temperature anomalies near the surface, scaling with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M102" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">norm</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0</mml:mn><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scales the full profile more drastically, leading to lower normalised values in the free-troposphere compared to the mid-latitude cluster.</p>
      <p id="d2e3505">In the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, profiles of the polar and in particular the mid-latitude clusters feature negative <inline-formula><mml:math id="M103" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> above 250–300 hPa. These negative values are most likely due to the upward shift of the tropopause, associated with the upper-level anticyclones during heat extremes <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx53" id="paren.68"><named-content content-type="pre">e.g.</named-content></xref>. Therefore, virtually all positive temperature anomalies during TXx events are confined to the troposphere, and the negative anomalies above emerge as a consequence of the elevated tropopause. Weaker negative temperature anomalies for the polar cluster likely arise from weaker anticyclonic flow anomalies. The tropics also feature a small negative temperature anomaly around the tropopause height, consistent with the cooling of the lower stratosphere in response to tropospheric warming <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx24 bib1.bibx30" id="paren.69"/>.</p>
      <p id="d2e3534">With our procedure, some regions are classified in somewhat unexpected clusters. For instance, in Europe, both the Iberian Peninsula and the west coast of France stand out as being assigned to the tropical cluster rather than the mid-latitude cluster (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F2"/>a). TXx events over the Iberian Peninsula feature a deep PBL and a vertically uniform layer of elevated scaled temperatures extending from the surface to 700 hPa (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="FD1"/>c, d). At the same time, there is also an upper-level temperature anomaly near the tropopause, similar to the mid-latitude cluster, even though this temperature anomaly is weaker and confined to the upper troposphere. While heat extremes in mid-latitude regions are typically linked to atmospheric blocking, over the Iberian Peninsula, they are more often associated with subtropical ridges <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx53 bib1.bibx86 bib1.bibx73" id="paren.70"><named-content content-type="pre">e.g.</named-content></xref>. In addition, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx72" id="text.71"/> and <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx11" id="text.72"/> reported that heat extremes over the Iberian Peninsula are frequently accompanied by Saharan plumes of warm air in the free troposphere. Therefore, TXx events in this region feature a hybrid structure, combining characteristics of both the tropical and mid-latitude clusters. Another unexpected classification occurs in Greenland (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F2"/>a). Despite its snow cover, cold near-surface conditions, and a shallow PBL, TXx events over a large part of Greenland are classified as being in the mid-latitude rather than the polar cluster. Examining individual grid points over Greenland (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="FD2"/>b–e) reveals that the mid-latitude classified grid points feature a weaker vertical gradient of the temperature anomalies near the surface compared to those in the polar cluster. However, the near-surface layer with uniform temperature anomalies at the Greenland grid points classified as mid-latitude is shallow compared to the median of the mid-latitude cluster. Nevertheless, the temperature anomalies in the free troposphere are higher, similarly to the mid-latitude cluster, which likely leads to the mid-latitude classification. A third unexpected classification arises in South America, where parts of Uruguay and southern Brazil are in the polar cluster (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F2"/>a). Comparing the cluster median profile and the profiles at the considered grid points reveals that even though the temperature anomalies in the PBL deviate considerably from the polar cluster, the free-tropospheric temperature anomalies are similar to the polar cluster and, thus, smaller than in the mid-latitude cluster (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="FD3"/>d). The different characteristics of this region likely come from the different seasonality of the TXx events compared to the monsoon region further north (see Fig. S1) and the reduced co-location of upper-level blocking anticyclones during these events compared to the region further south <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx56 bib1.bibx21" id="paren.73"/>. Note that, aside from unexpected clusters in these regions, elevated regions generally cluster with their “expected cluster”, indicating that topography itself does not affect the clustering (Figs. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F2"/>a and <xref ref-type="fig" rid="FD2"/>). Generally, we expect some grid points to feature a mix of characteristics of the three clusters, especially at the intersection between two clusters. Despite its caveats (e.g. due to the limitation to three clusters only), the clustering provides a coherent and informative overall picture of the vertical temperature anomaly structure. We will further discuss the spatial variability within the clusters (and therefore, the robustness of the cluster profiles) together with the variability of individual TXx events in Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S4"/>.</p>
      <p id="d2e3571">Given that the extent of the troposphere varies meridionally, one might wonder whether the identified clusters simply reflect this variation in tropopause height. We therefore performed three sensitivity tests: (i)  without an area-weighting of the grid points, (ii) with an area-weighting but with profiles that are capped in the mid-troposphere by only including the lowermost hybrid sigma–pressure levels (levels 90–137), and (iii) without an area-weighting where the profiles are vertically scaled and capped at the tropopause by linear scaling between the surface and the dynamical tropopause. The first test reveals a similar peak of the silhouette score (Fig. S2a), while the second shows a peak at four to five clusters, and the third one shows no peak and generally lower silhouette scores (Fig. S2b, c). The approaches produced very similar global distributions of the clusters and median cluster profiles when constraining the number of clusters to three, except for the second test, which features no polar but two tropical clusters (Fig. S3). We conclude from these tests that the clusters are not an artefact of varying tropopause height, but instead they capture differences in vertical temperature anomaly profiles that reveal distinct dynamics leading to the formation of heat extremes.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS2">
  <label>3.2</label><title>Genesis and decay of TXx events</title>
      <p id="d2e3582">To better understand the temporal evolution of the vertical structure of TXx events, we next examine the genesis and decay of temperature anomalies in the days preceding and following the events, respectively (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F3"/>). Even though the mechanisms forming near-surface heat extremes in the three clusters vary considerably, all three clusters experience an increase in the temperature anomaly within 5 d before the TXx event from an approximately climatological profile (close to zero anomalies at most levels) to the previously discussed profiles on the day of the TXx events (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F3"/>a–c).</p>

      <fig id="F3" specific-use="star"><label>Figure 3</label><caption><p id="d2e3591">Temporal evolution of the median and interquartile range of the median <italic>scaled</italic> temperature anomalies (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M104" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>C</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) of all the grid points <bold>(a–c)</bold> during the 5 d genesis and <bold>(d–f)</bold> 3 d decay of TXx events for <bold>(a, d)</bold> the polar, <bold>(b, e)</bold> mid-latitude, and <bold>(c, f)</bold> tropical clusters. The surface pressure is set again to a reference pressure of 1000 hPa.</p></caption>
          <graphic xlink:href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/7/1875/2026/wcd-7-1875-2026-f03.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d2e3637">Heat extremes in the tropics are characterised by a gradual and uniform increase in the temperature anomaly below 600 hPa (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F3"/>c). This suggests a local heat accumulation within the boundary layer, likely due to reduced soil and PBL moisture <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx8 bib1.bibx12 bib1.bibx15" id="paren.74"/>. Mirroring the genesis phase, the decay of heat extremes in the tropics is characterised by a gradual decrease in the temperature anomaly within the PBL (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F3"/>f).</p>
      <p id="d2e3648">In contrast, the genesis of heat extremes in the mid-latitudes is characterised by a full tropospheric warming (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F3"/>b). In the period from 5 to 1 d before the TXx event, the scaled temperature anomaly increases uniformly throughout the troposphere. This vertically deep warming likely indicates an influence of large-scale atmospheric dynamics that preconditions the vertical profile before reaching the peak surface temperatures. One day before the TXx event, the temperature in the mid- to upper-troposphere nearly reached its final temperature anomaly, while the surface temperature anomaly still deviates strongly from the one during the TXx event. This suggests that the final warming occurs predominantly in the lower troposphere and PBL, presumingly due to land–atmosphere feedbacks, but potentially also due to amplified subsidence, as noted by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx25" id="text.75"/> for the 2021 PNW heatwave. The evolution of temperature anomalies aligns with the evolution of recent heatwaves in the mid-latitudes, which also featured first a full tropospheric warming followed by a low-level intensification <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx41 bib1.bibx25 bib1.bibx28" id="paren.76"/>.</p>
      <p id="d2e3659">After TXx events in the mid-latitudes, a strong decrease in temperature anomaly is observed first within the PBL, while the temperature anomalies above 800 hPa decrease more slowly (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F3"/>e). Note that the TXx event is the hottest time step by definition. Therefore, we expect a decrease in the near-surface temperature afterwards. However, principally anomalous temperatures can remain after a TXx event. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx63" id="text.77"/> found that thunderstorms and frontal passages terminate heat extremes in central Europe, which aligns with the occurrence of precipitation after TXx events and their termination through moist convection, suggested by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx84" id="text.78"/>. Aside from the specific termination processes, the longer-lasting temperature anomalies in the upper levels might also represent the different lifetimes of upper-level anticyclones and heat extremes.</p>
      <p id="d2e3670">Similar to the mid-latitudes, heat extremes in the polar cluster exhibit first a uniform warming throughout the troposphere (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F3"/>a). The difference in the vertical profile compared to the mid-latitude cluster emerges about 1 d before TXx events, when the temperature anomaly in the lowermost 50 hPa increases very strongly. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx58" id="text.79"/> found a strong advective contribution to near-surface temperature anomalies during heat extremes in polar regions. Furthermore, according to <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx22" id="text.80"/>, a strong upper-tropospheric ridge and the associated poleward transport of warm and moist air masses are responsible for extreme melting events in Greenland. Therefore, we hypothesise that the deep temperature anomaly profiles that we observe in the polar cluster likely originate from strong advection. Aside from the deep temperature anomalies, the near-surface evolution of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M105" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, as already discussed before, hints towards the rapid erosion of the above-ground temperature inversion layer. The intrusion of warm and moist air above the inversion can lead to its erosion through changes in the surface energy balance, rather than increased shear-driven turbulent mixing within the inversion layer <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx80" id="paren.81"/>. This erosion of the surface temperature inversion during our TXx events in the polar cluster is likely similar to observed, recent polar heatwaves. During the days after polar TXx events, the near-surface temperature anomalies continuously fade away. In contrast, the upper-level temperature anomaly decreases more slowly (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F3"/>d). Both suggest the restoration of a near-surface temperature inversion after a TXx event, which was also observed after the East Antarctica heatwave in 2022 <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx80" id="paren.82"/>.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS3">
  <label>3.3</label><title>Refinement of classification</title>
      <p id="d2e3716">Up to this point, our analysis focused on a <inline-formula><mml:math id="M106" display="inline"><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-means clustering with three clusters, which is the number of clusters for which the ratio of the within-cluster similarity and the between-cluster dissimilarity is the largest. As a refinement, we extend the analysis to six clusters. This choice is motivated by the consideration that by doubling the number of clusters, we can examine whether each of the three original clusters is partitioned into two sub-clusters, or whether qualitatively new groupings emerge.</p>
      <p id="d2e3726">The six resulting clusters from the area-weighted <inline-formula><mml:math id="M107" display="inline"><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-means clustering show, similarly to the three clusters, the major climate zones (compare Figs. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F2"/>a and <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F4"/>a). Compared to the original clustering with three clusters, the refined clustering results in two clusters with tropical characteristics, three with mid-latitude characteristics, and one with polar characteristics. Hereafter, we focus on the different climate characteristics separately.</p>

      <fig id="F4" specific-use="star"><label>Figure 4</label><caption><p id="d2e3742">Refinement of the global area-weighted clustering with now six clusters over land: <bold>(a)</bold> map of clusters polar 1 (dark blue, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M108" display="inline"><mml:mi>N</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M109" display="inline"><mml:mo>=</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 30 127 grid points), mid-latitude 1 (red, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M110" display="inline"><mml:mi>N</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M111" display="inline"><mml:mo>=</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 9124), mid-latitude 2 (dark pink, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M112" display="inline"><mml:mi>N</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M113" display="inline"><mml:mo>=</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 10 312), mid-latitude 3 (light pink, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M114" display="inline"><mml:mi>N</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M115" display="inline"><mml:mo>=</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 17 422), tropics 1 (brown, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M116" display="inline"><mml:mi>N</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M117" display="inline"><mml:mo>=</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 11 299), and tropics 2 (yellow, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M118" display="inline"><mml:mi>N</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M119" display="inline"><mml:mo>=</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 9865). <bold>(b–d)</bold> Median and interquartile range of the vertical median <italic>scaled</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M120" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> profile of all the grid points within each cluster for the <bold>(b)</bold> polar, <bold>(c)</bold> mid-latitude, and <bold>(d)</bold> tropical clusters on pressure levels (surface pressure set again to the reference pressure 1000 hPa).</p></caption>
          <graphic xlink:href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/7/1875/2026/wcd-7-1875-2026-f04.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d2e3868">In the tropical regions (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F4"/>d), we find a distinction between regions with deeper PBLs with positive <inline-formula><mml:math id="M121" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (tropics 2) and regions with a less deep layer with positive <inline-formula><mml:math id="M122" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (tropics 1), while the profiles look similar above 500 hPa (no anomalies in both clusters). Comparing these clusters to the soil moisture regimes of <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx66" id="text.83"/>, we find that the regions with the shallower PBL are often situated in regions classified in a wet or transitional-wet regime, whereas the tropics 2 cluster is located in regions classified in the dry or transitional regime, especially over deserts, i.e. below the descending branch of the Hadley cell. In dry regions, the sensible heat fluxes are stronger than in wet regions, as a larger fraction of the net radiation is converted into sensible heat flux <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx67" id="paren.84"><named-content content-type="pre">e.g.</named-content></xref>. This larger heat transfer into the atmosphere leads to a deeper PBL <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx39 bib1.bibx61" id="paren.85"/>.</p>
      <p id="d2e3907">All mid-latitude clusters feature deep temperature anomalies (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F4"/>c), but the mid-latitude 1 cluster has a stronger vertical decrease of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M123" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, while clusters mid-latitude 2 and 3 exhibit a more vertically uniform anomaly profile. The layer of high temperature anomalies near the surface is shallower in mid-latitude 3 compared to mid-latitude 2. The stronger vertical gradient in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M124" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> between 800 and 600 hPa in the mid-latitude 1 cluster indicates that its temperature anomalies are more concentrated near the surface. Furthermore, the deeper uniform layer of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M125" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in this cluster near the surface suggests a deeper PBL and suggests that surface processes may be more important. In contrast, the stronger upper-tropospheric anomalies in cluster mid-latitude 2 and mid-latitude 3 are likely linked to stronger anticyclones or atmospheric blocks, as also indicated by a strong negative anomaly above the tropopause. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx28" id="text.86"/> also differentiated European heat extremes by their vertical temperature distribution and noted that heat extremes with amplified temperature anomalies near the surface were often preconditioned by low soil moisture. Furthermore, according to <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx66" id="text.87"/>, large parts of the mid-latitude 1 cluster regions are located in the transition soil moisture regime, while the mid-latitude 2 and mid-latitude 3 cluster regions are in the wet regime. Connecting this knowledge with our clusters, the mid-latitude 1 cluster, with its deeper PBL, has likely stronger sensible heat fluxes and, thus, a stronger land-atmosphere coupling due to drier soil moisture conditions.</p>
      <p id="d2e3973">Considerable changes occur in climatic transition zones between the original three-cluster and the extended six-cluster categorisation. In these regions, some grid points change their cluster type. For example, the Iberian Peninsula, which was initially part of the tropical cluster, has now shifted to the mid-latitude 1 cluster with weak temperature anomalies in the upper troposphere and deep PBL anomalies, which fits better with the observed <inline-formula><mml:math id="M126" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of that region (see grey shading in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="FD1"/>c, d). Similarly, the South American regions, which were assigned to the polar cluster due to their weak upper-level temperature anomalies, are now classified as mid-latitude 1.</p>
      <p id="d2e3991">The polar cluster is similar to the polar cluster of the original clustering (Figs. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F2"/>a and <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F4"/>a). Having only one polar cluster in the refined clustering suggests that the variability between polar grid points is comparatively small due to the shallow near-surface layer with high temperature anomalies.</p>
      <p id="d2e3998">In the remaining parts of the paper, we return to the analysis of the original classification with three clusters.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4">
  <label>4</label><title>Inter-cluster variability and the variance of individual TXx events</title>
      <p id="d2e4010">As detailed in Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S2.SS4"/>, we partition the mean squared error (MSE) between individual TXx profiles and the cluster median profile at each grid point into contributions of a bias and a variance (see Eq. <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="Ch1.E9"/>). The former, the grid point's <inline-formula><mml:math id="M127" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">bias</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, represents the squared bias between the median vertical profile (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M128" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) and cluster median, while the latter, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M129" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">var</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, captures the variance between individual TXx profiles and the median <inline-formula><mml:math id="M130" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> at a particular grid point. Large values of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M131" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">bias</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> mean that the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M132" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> profiles differ greatly from the cluster median, while large values of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M133" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">var</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> indicate that the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M134" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> profiles at a single grid point are highly variable between TXx events. In the following, we consider <inline-formula><mml:math id="M135" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">bias</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M136" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">var</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> separately (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F5"/>).</p>

      <fig id="F5" specific-use="star"><label>Figure 5</label><caption><p id="d2e4223">Distribution of (left) <inline-formula><mml:math id="M137" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">bias</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and (right) <inline-formula><mml:math id="M138" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">var</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, vertically averaged over <bold>(a, b)</bold> all hybrid sigma–pressure levels, <bold>(c, d)</bold> only the PBL, <bold>(e, f)</bold> only the free troposphere, and <bold>(g, h)</bold> only the stratosphere. The brown lines denote the boundaries between the three clusters. The coldest 10 TXx events are excluded at each grid point. Note the different scales used for <inline-formula><mml:math id="M139" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">bias</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M140" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">var</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>.</p></caption>
        <graphic xlink:href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/7/1875/2026/wcd-7-1875-2026-f05.png"/>

      </fig>

      <p id="d2e4337">Generally, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M141" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">bias</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is relatively small and uniform within the clusters, except for the tropics (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F5"/>a). This highlights that our clustering is generally working adequately. However, we want to highlight some regions in the following. As already exemplarily explained for Spain in Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S3.SS1"/>, profiles can exhibit mixed characteristics of two clusters in regions where the vertical extent of the temperature anomalies is more variable. Therefore, along the border between clusters, we expect and also find elevated values of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M142" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">bias</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F5"/>a). Introducing more clusters, as in Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S3.SS3"/>, reduces <inline-formula><mml:math id="M143" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">bias</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> considerably in these regions (Fig. S5). Furthermore, parts of Greenland, Uruguay, and Brazil feature high <inline-formula><mml:math id="M144" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">bias</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. Considering contributions from different vertical layers to the bias, we find that all regions feature relatively high biases in the PBL (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F5"/>c) and low biases in the free troposphere and stratosphere (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F5"/>e, g). As already discussed in Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S3.SS1"/>, these regions feature similar temperature anomalies in the upper troposphere, while the near-surface temperature anomaly profiles deviate from the cluster median (Figs. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="FD2"/> and <xref ref-type="fig" rid="FD3"/>). Other regions with high <inline-formula><mml:math id="M145" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">bias</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> are in the tropical cluster. Considering the different layers (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F5"/>c, e, g) reveals that the largest values of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M146" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">bias</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> are located in the PBL. This is consistent with the fact that with six clusters we find two tropical clusters with a shallow and deep PBL, respectively, and then <inline-formula><mml:math id="M147" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">bias</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> reduces considerably (Figs. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="FA1"/> and S5). Therefore, elevated values of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M148" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">bias</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in the tropical cluster originate from the different vertical extent of the PBL.</p>
      <p id="d2e4582">Considering now the variability between TXx events at each grid point (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M149" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">var</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>), we first note that this quantity is a factor five larger than the bias <inline-formula><mml:math id="M150" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">bias</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F5"/>a, b, note the different scales). Therefore, variability in the vertical profiles within each cluster is mainly dominated by differences between events rather than by differences in the median profiles between grid points. Second, the global distribution of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M151" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">var</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> shows a clear meridional pattern (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F5"/>b). We find large values in the tropics, which decrease towards a minimum in the mid-latitudes and increase again towards the poles. This implies that, when considering variability in the entire vertical column, mid-latitude TXx events are more alike in terms of their scaled temperature anomaly profiles than events in the tropics and polar regions. In the following, we focus on each of the three climate zones separately.</p>
      <p id="d2e4654">In the tropics, the anomalous temperatures are confined to the PBL, where the variance is relatively low, while the free-tropospheric profile is basically unconstrained (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F5"/>d, f). Therefore, if the tropical region features a heat extreme, its relevant part of the vertical profile looks much like the profile of other heat extremes, as the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M152" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">var</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> within the PBL is small. However, to have a precise description of the vertical profile, the climatological PBL height is needed due to the large <inline-formula><mml:math id="M153" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">bias</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. Therefore, the large variability of the <italic>entire</italic> profiles in the tropics seen in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F5"/>b stems from the vertical layers above the PBL that are not relevant for the formation of the TXx event.</p>
      <p id="d2e4710">Moving to the mid-latitudes, the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M154" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">var</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> declines (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F5"/>b). Here, TXx events have vertically deep temperature anomalies, extending up to the tropopause. Therefore, the lower <inline-formula><mml:math id="M155" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">var</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, in general and in the free troposphere, together with these deep temperature anomalies, highlights that the near-surface temperatures are strongly coupled to the temperature anomaly over the whole troposphere, underlining the interplay between large-scale dynamics and near-surface processes in shaping heat extremes in the mid-latitudes (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F5"/>f). Both <inline-formula><mml:math id="M156" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">bias</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M157" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">var</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> are small in the mid-latitudes (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F5"/>a, b). Therefore, the cluster median provides a good representation of individual profiles.</p>
      <p id="d2e4804">Even though the polar regions also feature vertically deep temperature anomalies up to the tropopause, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M158" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">var</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> increases again (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F5"/>b). Here, near-surface temperature inversions strongly modulate the vertical profile of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M159" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. Depending on how strong the erosion of the temperature inversion is, the vertical structure changes considerably, leading to higher <inline-formula><mml:math id="M160" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">var</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. Together with the climatological strength of the near-surface temperature inversion layer, whose erosion creates high <inline-formula><mml:math id="M161" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">var</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, the profiles in polar regions are more variable and, thus, less constrained than in other regions.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S5">
  <label>5</label><title>Vertical temperature anomaly structure of the most intense events</title>
      <p id="d2e4888">So far, we have classified heat extremes based on their vertical structure and analysed the variability between regions and individual TXx events. As detailed in the introduction, it has been suggested that the vertical temperature structure could be a key for explaining the, in cases record-shattering, intensity of recent surface heat extremes <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx41 bib1.bibx84" id="paren.88"><named-content content-type="pre">e.g.</named-content></xref>. Therefore, we now investigate the warmest 10 TXx events at each grid point (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F6"/>) to see whether their profiles deviate from the median of all TXx events (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M162" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">var</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>).</p>

      <fig id="F6" specific-use="star"><label>Figure 6</label><caption><p id="d2e4919"><bold>(a)</bold> Variance of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M163" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> profiles for the 10 hottest TXx events relative to the median profile of all TXx events (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M164" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">var</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>), and <bold>(b)</bold> the ratio of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M165" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">var</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> between the hottest 10 TXx events and moderate TXx events (which exclude the hottest and coldest 10 TXx events). Fields in both panels are vertically averaged over all hybrid sigma–pressure levels. The brown lines denote the boundaries between the three clusters.</p></caption>
        <graphic xlink:href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/7/1875/2026/wcd-7-1875-2026-f06.png"/>

      </fig>

      <p id="d2e4984">Overall, the spatial distribution of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M166" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">var</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of the most intense TXx events across the globe is similar compared to all TXx events (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F6"/>a). As discussed in the previous section, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M167" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">var</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> shows a meridional pattern of high values in the tropics, a local minimum in the mid-latitudes, and slightly higher values in the polar regions.</p>
      <p id="d2e5028">Considering the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M168" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">var</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> ratio between the hottest and the more moderate TXx events (excluding the top and bottom 10 TXx events), this ratio is <inline-formula><mml:math id="M169" display="inline"><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1 virtually all across the globe, meaning that the variance for the hottest events is lower than for the moderate events (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F6"/>b). This implies that the most extreme TXx events are less variable from one event to another and more alike the cluster median than moderate TXx events.</p>

      <fig id="F7" specific-use="star"><label>Figure 7</label><caption><p id="d2e5061">Joint distributions of the mean vertical variance of individual TXx event profiles relative to their median profile and near-surface <inline-formula><mml:math id="M170" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0</mml:mn><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (lowest model level), <bold>(a)</bold> for <inline-formula><mml:math id="M171" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">norm</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <bold>(b)</bold> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M172" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, and <bold>(c)</bold> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M173" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in log-log-scale. The values of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M174" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ρ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> in the upper right corner in panels <bold>(a)</bold> and <bold>(b)</bold> denote the Spearman correlation (both <inline-formula><mml:math id="M175" display="inline"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-values <inline-formula><mml:math id="M176" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">10</mml:mn><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>). Bin widths are 0.1<inline-formula><mml:math id="M177" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M178" display="inline"><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-axis) and 0.02<inline-formula><mml:math id="M179" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> or 0.02<inline-formula><mml:math id="M180" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">s</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M181" display="inline"><mml:mi>y</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-axis). The black dotted line marks the weighted median. The violet dotted line and the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M182" display="inline"><mml:mi>m</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> value in the upper right corner in panel <bold>(c)</bold> indicate the regression line and slope, respectively. Note that the negative <inline-formula><mml:math id="M183" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0</mml:mn><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> values on the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M184" display="inline"><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-axes arise from our event definition and make up 0.03 % of the TXx events.</p></caption>
        <graphic xlink:href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/7/1875/2026/wcd-7-1875-2026-f07.png"/>

      </fig>

      <p id="d2e5263">The most intense TXx events represent the far tail of the temperature anomaly distribution. This has important implications for interpreting vertical profiles of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M185" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">norm</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M186" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. Specifically, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M187" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">norm</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> shows a nearly constant variance in observed TXx events across different intensities (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F7"/>a). In contrast, the variance of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M188" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> TXx profiles decreases with increasing intensity (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F7"/>b). The decrease is proportional to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M189" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, visible in the linear relationship with a slope of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M190" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in the log-log plot (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F7"/>c). This means that more intense heat extremes have a similar <italic>absolute</italic> deviation from their normalised temperature anomaly profiles but a smaller <italic>relative</italic> deviation from the cluster median. For example, both a 2<inline-formula><mml:math id="M191" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-event and a 4<inline-formula><mml:math id="M192" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-event have an error of roughly 0.5<inline-formula><mml:math id="M193" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> in the normalized temperature anomalies. However, the relative error for the  4<inline-formula><mml:math id="M194" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-event is actually four times as low as for the 2<inline-formula><mml:math id="M195" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-event. In this sense, as events become more extreme, their vertical structure becomes more typical.</p>
      <p id="d2e5392">This emergence of “typicality” aligns with the predictions of large deviation theory (LDT), a mathematical framework that provides insights into the statistics and dynamics of such rare events <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx20 bib1.bibx33 bib1.bibx44" id="paren.89"><named-content content-type="pre">e.g.</named-content></xref>. Within the LDT, the principle of “typicality” states that highly improbable events occur through the most probable pathway <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx76" id="paren.90"/>. Physically, even though an event is extremely rare, it forms through similar processes as more likely events and is therefore not an outlier in terms of its dynamics. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx33" id="text.91"/> demonstrated dynamical typicality for the Northwest Pacific 2021 heatwave in long simulations with an Earth system model, and <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx44" id="text.92"/> found converging physical mechanisms leading to increasingly extreme temperatures in a 2000-year climate model simulation. Our clustering analysis extends previous findings with long model simulations to reanalysis data, showing that a typicality of vertical temperature profiles emerges as events become more extreme. This provides observational support for LDT predictions and reinforces the idea that the most extreme heatwaves emerge from increasingly constrained dynamical pathways.</p>
      <p id="d2e5409">Taken together, these results demonstrate that while moderate TXx events still exhibit a degree of diverse vertical structures, the most extreme heat events increasingly converge to a “typical” profile that is well captured by the cluster medians. Furthermore, it suggests that we can predict how the vertical profile of the very extreme events will be shaped with low relative error. This convergence towards a “typical” profile means that the most extreme TXx events are actually no freak events, despite their rarity.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S6" sec-type="conclusions">
  <label>6</label><title>Conclusions</title>
      <p id="d2e5420">Motivated by recent work on the vertical structure of heat extremes <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx41 bib1.bibx25 bib1.bibx28" id="paren.93"/>, we present an Eulerian global classification of the vertical temperature anomaly structure of TXx events over land using area-weighted <inline-formula><mml:math id="M196" display="inline"><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-means clustering. By first calculating temperature anomalies and then normalising them by the standard deviation, we accounted for regional climate variability. We then take the step of scaling each vertical temperature profile by its surface value, yielding a <italic>scaled</italic> temperature profile (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M197" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>). This allows us to compare the shape of a heat extreme's vertical structure independent of its local intensity or climate zone. This scaling procedure is essential, as it enables the subsequent application of a <inline-formula><mml:math id="M198" display="inline"><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-means clustering algorithm to these <italic>scaled</italic> profiles, identifying three distinct clusters, i.e., regional groups with similar vertical temperature anomaly characteristics.</p>
      <p id="d2e5460">We find, first, that the global distribution of the three clusters broadly follows climate zones, highlighting that while heat extremes can form through multiple pathways, they tend to converge onto a limited set of vertical <inline-formula><mml:math id="M199" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> structures. In the tropics, temperature anomalies are mainly confined to the boundary layer, while in the mid-latitudes and polar regions, positive temperature anomalies extend throughout the troposphere. Polar regions feature only a shallow layer of amplified positive temperatures near the surface, whereas the mid-latitudes exhibit a deeper layer of strong positive temperature anomalies.</p>
      <p id="d2e5476">Second, the temporal evolution of these clusters in the days before and after TXx events indirectly highlights distinct physical mechanisms. In the tropics, heat extremes build up gradually through progressive boundary-layer warming and heat accumulation, reflecting strong coupling with the land surface, possibly through reduced moisture within the PBL, or entrainment of dry air aloft <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx8 bib1.bibx12 bib1.bibx15" id="paren.94"/>. In contrast, TXx events in mid-latitudes are characterised by deep tropospheric warming, associated with an upper-level anticyclonic flow, followed by an intensification of low-level anomalies in the final days, which is consistent with increased subsidence and surface feedbacks <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx39 bib1.bibx25" id="paren.95"/>. In polar regions, the temporal evolution reveals the erosion of near-surface temperature inversions prior to heat extremes <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx80" id="paren.96"/>. Once these inversion layers are weakened, strong warming signatures emerge close to the ground while the overlying tropospheric profile warmed prior to the erosion of the surface inversion.</p>
      <p id="d2e5488">Third, while the deviation between the grid points' median profile and the cluster profile is relatively small, we find larger variations when comparing individual TXx events to their grid point median. The variance between TXx events and the bias to the cluster profile is lowest in the mid-latitudes, indicating that the ground temperature is strongly coupled to the temperature in the mid and lower troposphere, and the mid-latitude cluster profile is a good approximation of the vertical temperature profile for individual events. The bias between grid points is larger in polar regions, likely due to the variable strength of surface temperature inversion layers, while the variance between individual TXx events is similar or slightly larger than in the mid-latitudes. Tropical regions feature the largest biases between the grid points due to different PBL heights, compared to the other clusters. The variance between individual TXx events at one grid point is relatively low in the layers relevant for tropical heat extremes.</p>
      <p id="d2e5492">Finally, a very important result of our analyses is that compared with moderate TXx events, profiles during the most intense TXx events tend to follow the median profiles more closely. This “typicality” of extremes supports theoretical expectations from large deviation theory, whereby increasingly intense events emerge from more constrained dynamical pathways. Whereas this behaviour was previously observed only in long simulations <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx33 bib1.bibx44" id="paren.97"><named-content content-type="pre">e.g.</named-content></xref>, our clustering-based resampling reveals a similar pattern in observation-based reanalysis data.</p>
      <p id="d2e5500">Our results are based on several choices regarding the selection of extreme heat events, the number of clusters, the clustering method, and the extent of the vertical profile for clustering. However, our sensitivity analyses have shown that our results are robust to changes in the input parameters. Since we aimed for a simple global classification, unavoidably, not all vertical profiles align perfectly with the actual temperature anomaly profile during heat extremes at every grid point, but a large fraction of heat extremes, in particular the strongest ones, are well represented. Furthermore, we chose to apply the clustering to the median profiles for each grid point. Therefore, our clustering reveals the characteristics of a climatological heat extreme at each grid point. An additional next step could be investigating extended (multi-day) heat waves instead of hourly TXx events or the classification of different types of TXx events at each grid point, similar to <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx28" id="text.98"/>. Furthermore, this Eulerian view of the characteristics of TXx events opens new questions, like whether these temperature anomalies within the clusters arise from distinct processes despite being classified as belonging to the same cluster. Therefore, one could combine our results with a Lagrangian analysis, learning more about the processes around the globe that shape these vertical temperature anomaly profiles, as done by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx58" id="text.99"/> and <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx25" id="text.100"/>.</p>
</sec>

      
      </body>
    <back><app-group>

<app id="App1.Ch1.S1">
  <label>Appendix A</label><title>PBL height during TXx events</title>

      <fig id="FA1"><label>Figure A1</label><caption><p id="d2e5525">Global distribution of <bold>(a)</bold> the median PBL height (in hPa), and <bold>(b)</bold> the median PBL depth (also in hPa) during the 73 TXx events at each grid point.</p></caption>
        
        <graphic xlink:href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/7/1875/2026/wcd-7-1875-2026-f08.png"/>

      </fig>


</app>

<app id="App1.Ch1.S2">
  <label>Appendix B</label><title>Silhouette score of the area-weighted <inline-formula><mml:math id="M200" display="inline"><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-means clustering</title>

      <fig id="FB1"><label>Figure B1</label><caption><p id="d2e5562">Silhouette score for finding an optimal number of clusters of the median <italic>scaled</italic> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M201" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> profiles over land grid points with the area-weighted <inline-formula><mml:math id="M202" display="inline"><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-means clustering approach, using the eight retaining components of all hybrid sigma-pressure levels.</p></caption>
        
        <graphic xlink:href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/7/1875/2026/wcd-7-1875-2026-f09.png"/>

      </fig>

</app>

<app id="App1.Ch1.S3">
  <label>Appendix C</label><title>Mean standard deviation of the temperature anomaly during TXx events</title>

      <fig id="FC1"><label>Figure C1</label><caption><p id="d2e5604">Global distribution of the mean standard deviation of the temperature anomaly at TXx events <bold>(a)</bold> at the lowest model level and the ratio of <bold>(b)</bold> interpolated to 700 hPa, <bold>(c)</bold> 500 hPa, and <bold>(d)</bold> 300 hPa to the lowest model level. The white areas over land in panel <bold>(b)</bold> are where the surface pressure is below 700 hPa.</p></caption>
        
        <graphic xlink:href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/7/1875/2026/wcd-7-1875-2026-f10.png"/>

      </fig>


</app>

<app id="App1.Ch1.S4">
  <label>Appendix D</label><title>Zoomed in maps of the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M203" display="inline"><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-means clustering with three clusters</title>
      <p id="d2e5648">Here we focus on Greenland, Europe, and South America and show regional excerpts of our global <inline-formula><mml:math id="M204" display="inline"><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-means clustering, weighted by latitude, with three clusters. Figures <xref ref-type="fig" rid="FD1"/>, <xref ref-type="fig" rid="FD2"/>, and <xref ref-type="fig" rid="FD3"/> show, at selected grid points, how the vertical <italic>normalised</italic> temperature anomaly profile during TXx events compares to the corresponding median cluster profile. The figures help to put the results in Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S3.SS1"/> into context.</p>

      <fig id="FD1"><label>Figure D1</label><caption><p id="d2e5672">Area-weighted <inline-formula><mml:math id="M205" display="inline"><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-means clustering with three clusters from Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F2"/>a shown as <bold>(a)</bold> a zoomed in map of Europe and <bold>(b–e)</bold> vertical <inline-formula><mml:math id="M206" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> profiles for individual grid points at <bold>(b)</bold> 61° N, 15° E, <bold>(c)</bold> 38.5° N, 4° W, <bold>(d)</bold> 45° N, 0.5° W, and <bold>(e)</bold> 49° N, 12° E. The grey line and its shading denote the median and interquartile range of all TXx events at that grid point, the yellow, red, and blue lines and shading the clusters' median and interquartile range of all <inline-formula><mml:math id="M207" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> within the tropical, mid-latitude, and polar clusters, respectively. For the cluster <inline-formula><mml:math id="M208" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> profiles, we use the median surface pressure of the TXx events as a reference pressure to interpolate on pressure levels.</p></caption>
        
        <graphic xlink:href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/7/1875/2026/wcd-7-1875-2026-f11.png"/>

      </fig>

<fig id="FD2"><label>Figure D2</label><caption><p id="d2e5764">Area-weighted <inline-formula><mml:math id="M209" display="inline"><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-means clustering with three clusters from Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F2"/>a shown as <bold>(a)</bold> a zoomed in map of Greenland and <bold>(b–e)</bold> vertical <inline-formula><mml:math id="M210" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> profiles for individual grid points, <bold>(b)</bold> 70° N, 30° W, <bold>(c)</bold> 78° N, 61° W,  <bold>(d)</bold> 64° N, 45° W, and <bold>(e)</bold> 78° N, 41° W. The grey line and its shading denote the median and interquartile range of all TXx events at that grid point, the red and blue lines and shading the clusters' median and interquartile range of all <inline-formula><mml:math id="M211" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> within the mid-latitude and polar clusters, respectively. For the cluster <inline-formula><mml:math id="M212" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> profiles, we use the median surface pressure of the TXx events as a reference pressure to interpolate on pressure levels.</p></caption>
        
        <graphic xlink:href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/7/1875/2026/wcd-7-1875-2026-f12.png"/>

      </fig>

<fig id="FD3"><label>Figure D3</label><caption><p id="d2e5855">Area-weighted <inline-formula><mml:math id="M213" display="inline"><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-means clustering with three clusters from Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F2"/>a shown as <bold>(a)</bold> a zoomed in map of South America and <bold>(b–e)</bold> vertical <inline-formula><mml:math id="M214" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> profiles for individual grid points, <bold>(b)</bold> 12° S, 45° W, <bold>(c)</bold> 46° S, 70° W,  <bold>(d)</bold> 30° S, 60° W, and <bold>(e)</bold> 5° S, 65° W. The grey line and its shading denote the median and interquartile range of all TXx events at that grid point, the yellow, red, and blue lines and shading the clusters' median and interquartile range of all <inline-formula><mml:math id="M215" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> within the tropical, mid-latitude, and polar clusters, respectively. For the cluster <inline-formula><mml:math id="M216" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">scaled</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> profiles, we use the median surface pressure of the TXx events as a reference pressure to interpolate on pressure levels.</p></caption>
        
        <graphic xlink:href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/7/1875/2026/wcd-7-1875-2026-f13.png"/>

      </fig>

</app>
  </app-group><notes notes-type="codedataavailability"><title>Code and data availability</title>

      <p id="d2e5947">All results are based on the ERA5 reanalysis from ECMWF. The reanalysis data can be downloaded from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (<ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.143582cf" ext-link-type="DOI">10.24381/cds.143582cf</ext-link>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx10" id="altparen.101"/>). The scripts used <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx13" id="paren.102"/> to produce visualisations and visualisations are available from the authors upon request.</p>
  </notes><app-group>
        <supplementary-material position="anchor"><p id="d2e5959">The supplement related to this article is available online at <inline-supplementary-material xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1875-2026-supplement" xlink:title="pdf">https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1875-2026-supplement</inline-supplementary-material>.</p></supplementary-material>
        </app-group><notes notes-type="authorcontribution"><title>Author contributions</title>

      <p id="d2e5970">All authors jointly planned and designed the study. BH analysed the data and wrote the manuscript. RN, MR, and HW gave important guidance during the project and provided feedback on the manuscript.</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="competinginterests"><title>Competing interests</title>

      <p id="d2e5976">At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of <italic>Weather and Climate Dynamics</italic>. The peer-review process was guided by an independent editor, and the authors also have no other competing interests to declare.</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="disclaimer"><title>Disclaimer</title>

      <p id="d2e5987">Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. The authors bear the ultimate responsibility for providing appropriate place names. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.</p>
  </notes><ack><title>Acknowledgements</title><p id="d2e5993">The authors would like to thank Lukas Papritz, Quentin Nicolas, and Jonathan D. Wille for interesting discussions and feedback. Furthermore, we thank Aaron Donohoe and one anonymous reviewer for their constructive remarks. AI-powered search engines were used for parts of code development (OpenAI ChatGPT and Copilot). Further, we acknowledge <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx13" id="text.103"/> for the scientific colour maps, which were used in most of the figures.</p></ack><notes notes-type="financialsupport"><title>Financial support</title>

      <p id="d2e6001">This research has been supported by the Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (grant nos. 219244 and 216710).</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="reviewstatement"><title>Review statement</title>

      <p id="d2e6007">This paper was edited by David Battisti and reviewed by Aaron Donohoe and one anonymous referee.</p>
  </notes><ref-list>
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