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Weather and Climate Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2019-16
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2019-16
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

  09 Jan 2020

09 Jan 2020

Review status
A revised version of this preprint was accepted for the journal WCD and is expected to appear here in due course.

The role of North Atlantic-European weather regimes in the surface impact of sudden stratospheric warming events

Daniela I. V. Domeisen1, Christian M. Grams2, and Lukas Papritz1 Daniela I. V. Domeisen et al.
  • 1Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Switzerland
  • 2Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Department Troposphere Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany

Abstract. Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events can significantly impact tropospheric weather for a period of several weeks, in particular over the North Atlantic and Europe. However, not all SSW events exhibit the same tropospheric response, if any, and it remains an open question what determines the existence, location, timing, and strength of the downward impact. We here explore the role of the state of the tropospheric flow in the North Atlantic region at the onset of SSW events for determining the subsequent surface impact. A refined definition of seven North Atlantic tropospheric weather regimes indicates the Greenland blocking (GL) and Atlantic Trough (AT) regimes as the most frequent large-scale patterns following the weeks after an SSW. While GL is dominated by high pressure over Greenland, AT is dominated by a southeastward shifted storm track in the North Atlantic. We find that a blocking situation over western Europe and the North Sea (European Blocking) at the time of the SSW onset favours the GL response and the associated cold conditions over Europe. In contrast, an AT response and mild conditions are more likely if GL occurs already at SSW onset. For the remaining tropospheric flow regimes during SSW onset, we find no clear response. The results indicate that the tropospheric impact of SSW events critically depends on the tropospheric state during the onset of the SSW, which could provide crucial guidance for subseasonal prediction.

Daniela I. V. Domeisen et al.

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Interactive discussion

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Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Daniela I. V. Domeisen et al.

Daniela I. V. Domeisen et al.

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Latest update: 09 Aug 2020
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Short summary
We cannot currently predict the weather over Europe beyond 2 weeks. The stratosphere provides a promising opportunity to go beyond that limit by providing a change in probability of certain weather regimes at the surface. However, not all stratospheric extreme events are followed by the same surface weather evolution. We show that this weather evolution crucially depends on the tropospheric weather regime at the onset of the stratospheric extreme event, allowing for improved predictions.
We cannot currently predict the weather over Europe beyond 2 weeks. The stratosphere provides a...
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