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Weather and Climate Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-36
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-36
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

  14 Aug 2020

14 Aug 2020

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This preprint is currently under review for the journal WCD.

Increasing Frequency in Off-Season Tropical Cyclones and its relation to Climate Variability and Change

José J. Hernandez Ayala1 and Rafael Méndez-Tejeda2 José J. Hernandez Ayala and Rafael Méndez-Tejeda
  • 1Department of Geography, Environment & Planning, Climate Research Center, Sonoma State University, California, USA
  • 2Research Laboratory in Atmospheric Science, University of Puerto Rico at Carolina, Puerto Rico. P. O. Box 4800, 00984, Carolina, Puerto Rico

Abstract. This article analyzes the relationship between off-season tropical cyclone (TC) frequency and climate variability and change for the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins. TC track data was used to extract the off-season storms for the 1900–2019 period. TC counts were aggregated by decade and the number of storms for the first six decades (pre-satellite era) was adjusted. Mann-Kendall non-parametric tests were used to identify trends in decadal TC counts and multiple linear regression models (MRL) were used to test if climatic variability or climate change factors explained the trends in off-season storms. MRL stepwise procedures were implemented to identify the climate variability and change factors that explained most of the variability in off-season TC frequency. A total of 713 TCs were identified as occurring earlier or later than their peak seasons, most during the month of May and in the West Pacific and South Pacific basins. The East Pacific (EP), North Atlantic (NA) and West Pacific (WP) basins exhibit significant increasing trends in decadal off-season TC frequency. MRL results show that trends in sea surface temperature, global mean surface temperature, and cloud cover explain most of the increasing trend in decadal off-season TC counts in the EP, NA, and WP basins. Stepwise MLR results also identified climate change variables as the dominant forces behind increasing trends in off-season TC decadal counts, yet they also showed that climate variability factors like El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation also account for a portion of the variability.

José J. Hernandez Ayala and Rafael Méndez-Tejeda

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José J. Hernandez Ayala and Rafael Méndez-Tejeda

José J. Hernandez Ayala and Rafael Méndez-Tejeda

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Short summary
This study focused on exploring if off-season tropical cyclones, those that develop outside of the peak months, have been increasing over time in the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basins and if that higher frequency could be explained by climate variability or change. We found that off-season tropical cyclones are exhibiting an increase in total numbers by decade in the North Atlantic, East Pacific and West Pacific basins, and that climate change explained much of the increasing trends over time.
This study focused on exploring if off-season tropical cyclones, those that develop outside of...
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