10 Dec 2020

10 Dec 2020

Review status: a revised version of this preprint is currently under review for the journal WCD.

Minimal impact of model biases on northern hemisphere ENSO teleconnections

Nicholas L. Tyrrell and Alexey Yu. Karpechko Nicholas L. Tyrrell and Alexey Yu. Karpechko
  • Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, 00500, Finland

Abstract. Correctly capturing the teleconnection between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Europe is of importance for seasonal prediction. Here we investigate how systematic model biases may affect this teleconnection. A two–step bias–correction process is applied to an atmospheric general circulation model to reduce errors in the climatology. The bias–corrections are applied to the troposphere and stratosphere separately and together to produce a range of climates. ENSO type sensitivity experiments are then performed to reveal the impact of differing climatologies on ENSO–Europe teleconnections.

The bias–corrections do not affect the response of the tropical atmosphere, nor the Aleutian Low, to strong ENSO anomalies. However, the anomalous upward wave flux and the response of the northern hemisphere polar vortex differs between the climatologies. We attribute this to a reduced sensitivity of waves to the strength of the Aleutian Low. Despite the differing responses of the polar vortex, the NAO response is similar between the climatologies, implying that for strong ENSO events a stratospheric response may not be necessary for the ENSO–North Atlantic teleconnection.

Nicholas L. Tyrrell and Alexey Yu. Karpechko

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Status: final response (author comments only)
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Nicholas L. Tyrrell and Alexey Yu. Karpechko

Data sets

ECHAM6 Bias Correction ENSO Nicholas L. Tyrrell

Nicholas L. Tyrrell and Alexey Yu. Karpechko


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Short summary
Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (El Nino) effect the global climate. The Pacific-to-Europe connection relies on interactions of large atmospheric waves, with winds and surface pressure. We looked at how mean errors in a climate model effect its ability to simulate the Pacific-Europe connection. We found that even large errors in the seasonal winds did not affect the response of the model to an En Nino event, which is good news for seasonal forecasts which rely on these connections.