Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-60
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-60

  16 Dec 2020

16 Dec 2020

Review status: a revised version of this preprint was accepted for the journal WCD and is expected to appear here in due course.

Subseasonal prediction of springtime Pacific-North American transport using upper-level wind forecasts

John R. Albers1,2, Amy H. Butler3, Melissa L. Breeden3, Andrew O. Langford3, and George N. Kiladis2 John R. Albers et al.
  • 1Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, 80305, USA
  • 2Physical Science Laboratory, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, 80305, USA
  • 3Chemical Science Laboratory, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, 80305, USA

Abstract. Forecasts of Pacific jet variability are used to predict stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) and tropical-to-extratropical moisture exports (TME) during boreal spring over the Pacific-North American region. A retrospective analysis first documents the regionality of STT and TME for different Pacific jet patterns. Using these results as a guide, Pacific jet hindcasts, based on zonal-wind forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Integrated Forecasting System, are utilized to test whether STT and TME over specific geographic regions may be predictable for subseasonal forecast leads (3–6 weeks ahead of time). Large anomalies in STT to the mid-troposphere over the North Pacific, TME to the west coast of the United States, and TME over Japan are found to have the best potential for subseasonal predictability using upper-level wind forecasts. STT to the planetary boundary layer over the intermountain west of the United States is also potentially predictable for subseasonal leads, but likely only in the context of shifts in the probability of extreme events. While STT and TME forecasts match verifications quite well in terms of spatial structure and anomaly sign, the number of anomalous transport days is underestimated compared to observations. The underestimation of the number of anomalous transport days exhibits a strong seasonal cycle, which becomes progressively worse as spring progresses into summer.

John R. Albers et al.

 
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Status: closed
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Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement

John R. Albers et al.

John R. Albers et al.

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Short summary
Weather variability controls the transport of ozone from the stratosphere to the Earth's surface and water vapor from oceanic source regions to continental land masses. Forecasting these types of transport has high societal value because of the negative impacts of ozone on human health and the role of water vapor in governing precipitation variability. We use upper level wind forecasts to assess the potential for predicting ozone and water vapor transport 3–6 weeks ahead of time.