Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-15
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-15

  09 Mar 2021

09 Mar 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal WCD.

Resampling of ENSO teleconnections: accounting for cold season evolution reduces uncertainty in the North Atlantic

Martin P. King1,2,3, Camille Li2,3, and Stefan Sobolowski1,3 Martin P. King et al.
  • 1NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bergen, Norway
  • 2Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
  • 3Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway

Abstract. We re-examine the uncertainty of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation teleconnection to the North Atlantic following the investigation of Deser et al. (2017) (DES2017). Our analyses are performed on the November–December (ND) and January–February (JF) means separately, and for a geographical area that covers a larger extent in the midlatitude North At- lantic than DES2017. The motivation for splitting the cold season in this way arises from the fact that the teleconnection patterns and underlying physical mechanisms are different in late fall compared to mid-winter. As in DES2017, our main technique in quantifying the uncertainty is bootstrap resampling. Amplitudes and spatial correlations of the bootstrap samples are presented together effectively using Taylor diagrams. In addition to the confidence intervals calculated from Student's t tests and the percentiles of anomalous sea-level pressure (SLP) values in the bootstrap samples, we also investigate additional confidence intervals using techniques that are not widely used in climate research, but have different advantages. In contrast to the interpretation by DES2017, our results indicate that we can have some confidence in the signs of the teleconnection SLP anomalies. The uncertainties in the amplitudes remain large, with the upper-percentile anomalies at up to 2 times those of the lower percentiles in the North Pacific, and 2.8 times in the North Atlantic.

Martin P. King et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on wcd-2021-15', Anonymous Referee #1, 04 Apr 2021
  • RC2: 'Comment on wcd-2021-15', Anonymous Referee #2, 26 Apr 2021

Martin P. King et al.

Data sets

Supplementary data for "Resampling of ENSO teleconnections" manuscript Martin P. King http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4587405

Martin P. King et al.

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Short summary
We re-examine the uncertainty of ENSO teleconnection to the North Atlantic by considering the November–December and January–February months in the cold season, in addition to the conventional DJF months. This is motivated by previous studies reporting varying teleconnected atmospheric anomalies and the mechanisms concerned. Our results indicate an improved confidence in the patterns of the teleconnection. The finding may also have implications on research in predictability and climate impact.