Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-47
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-47

  19 Jul 2021

19 Jul 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal WCD.

Impact of climate change on wintertime European atmospheric blocking

Sara Bacer1, Fatima Jomaa1, Julien Beaumet2, Hubert Gallée2, Enzo Le Bouëdec1, Martin Ménégoz2, and Chantal Staquet1 Sara Bacer et al.
  • 1Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Grenoble INP, LEGI, 38000 Grenoble, France
  • 2Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France

Abstract. We study the impact of climate change on wintertime atmospheric blocking over Europe focusing on the frequency, duration, and extension of blocking events. These events are identified via the weather type decomposition (WTD) methodology applied on the output of climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). Historical simulations as well as two future scenarios, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, are considered. The models are evaluated against the reanalysis and only a subset of climate models, which better represent the blocking weather regime in the recent-past climate, is considered for the analysis. We find that frequency and duration of blocking events remain relatively stationary over the 21st century. In order to quantify the extension of blocking events, we define a new methodology which relies on the WTD to identify blocking events. We show that the results are in agreement with previous studies that define blocking events with blocking indexes. We find that blocking extension will increase, especially in the worst-case scenario, due to a pressure increase driven by a thermodynamical warming during blocking events rather than atmospheric circulation changes.

Sara Bacer et al.

Status: open (until 03 Sep 2021)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse

Sara Bacer et al.

Sara Bacer et al.

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Short summary
We study the impact of climate change on wintertime atmospheric blocking over Europe. We focus on the frequency, duration, and extension of blocking events. The blocking events are identified via a particular methodology, the weather type decomposition methodology. Analysing these events, we find that their frequency and duration will not change during the 21st century, while their extension will increase; such increase is related to the global warming rather than atmospheric dynamics changes.