Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2022-5
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2022-5
 
31 Jan 2022
31 Jan 2022
Status: a revised version of this preprint was accepted for the journal WCD and is expected to appear here in due course.

Benefits and challenges of dynamic sea-ice for weather forecasts

Jonathan Day1, Sarah Keeley1, Gabriele Arduini1, Linus Magnusson1, Kristian Mogensen1, Mark Rodwell1, Irina Sandu1, and Steffen Tietsche2 Jonathan Day et al.
  • 1European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading, RG2 9AX, United Kingdom
  • 2European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Robert-Schuman-Platz 3, 53175 Bonn, Germany

Abstract. The drive to develop environmental prediction systems that are seamless across both weather and climate timescales has culminated in the development and use of Earth system models, which include a coupled representation of the atmosphere, land, ocean and sea ice, for medium-range weather forecasts. One region where such a coupled Earth system approach has the potential to significantly influence the skill of weather forecasts is in the polar and sub-polar seas, where fluxes of heat, moisture and momentum are strongly influenced by the position of the sea ice edge. In this study we demonstrate that using a dynamically coupled ocean and sea ice model in ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System, results in improved sea ice edge position forecasts in the northern hemisphere in the medium-range. Further, this improves forecasts of boundary layer temperature and humidity downstream of the sea ice edge in some regions during periods of rapid change in the sea ice compared to forecasts in which the sea surface temperature anomalies and sea ice concentration do not evolve throughout the forecasts. Challenges and limitations, such as the quality of ocean and sea ice initial conditions or analyses, and the inability of the coupled system to capture the rate of sea ice concentration change during periods of ice advance and retreat will also be discussed.

Jonathan Day et al.

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on wcd-2022-5', Anonymous Referee #1, 25 Feb 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on wcd-2022-5', Anonymous Referee #2, 09 Mar 2022
  • AC1: 'Comment on wcd-2022-5', Jonathan Day, 29 Apr 2022

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on wcd-2022-5', Anonymous Referee #1, 25 Feb 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on wcd-2022-5', Anonymous Referee #2, 09 Mar 2022
  • AC1: 'Comment on wcd-2022-5', Jonathan Day, 29 Apr 2022

Jonathan Day et al.

Jonathan Day et al.

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Short summary
A recent drive to develop a seamless forecasting systems has culminated in the development of weather forecasting systems which include a coupled representation of the atmosphere, ocean and sea ice. Before this, sea ice and sea surface temperature anomalies were typically fixed throughout a given forecast. We show that the dynamic coupling adds most during rapid periods of rapid ice advance, where persistence is a poor forecast of the sea ice which lead to large errors in the uncoupled system.