https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/ Combined list of the recent articles of the journal Weather and Climate Dynamics and the recent discussion forum Weather and Climate Dynamics Discussions en https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1211-2026 WCD Ideas: hydrologically driven throughflow in the coupled ocean–atmosphere system Andrew S. Kowalski Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 1211–1217, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1211-2026, 2026 Textbooks describe the atmosphere’s north–south motion as closed circulation cells. This study shows that the water cycle also drives a subtle one-way flow of air, moving it from the humidified subtropics toward regions dried by rain and condensation. This hidden transport helps explain gradients of inert gases and suggests that large-scale atmospheric circulation may be more open than commonly assumed. Wed, 08 Jul 2026 19:09:40 +0200 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1173-2026 A regime-based diagnosis of transition probabilities and changes in frequency and intensity of Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall Bhupendra A. Raut, Aditi Deshpande, Devyani Kamble, Sandip Ingle, Parmeshwar Naik, Shwetal Walde, P. Pradeep Kumar, and Purnendranath Sen Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 1173–1188, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1173-2026, 2026 We present an unsupervised clustering methodology and post-clustering analysis framework that identifies recurring monsoon rainfall patterns and quantifies their transitions. Analysis reveals breaks are prolonged while monsoon depression are transient. The decomposition of frequency and intensity changes quantifies their contributions in long-term rainfall changes. Tue, 07 Jul 2026 19:09:40 +0200 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1153-2026 The October 2024 extreme precipitation event over Valencia: storyline attribution of the synoptic-scale thermodynamic drivers Diego A. Campos, Katherine Grayson, Ramiro I. Saurral, Sebastian Beyer, Amal John, Matías Olmo, and Francisco Doblas-Reyes Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 1153–1171, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1153-2026, 2026 Human-caused warming intensified the late October 2024 Valencia extreme precipitation event. Using storyline simulations, we compared today’s climate with a cooler past climate while keeping the synoptic weather pattern the same. Warmer air and sea temperatures increased moisture, instability, and rainfall, showing that climate change amplified an already extreme storm. Tue, 07 Jul 2026 19:09:40 +0200 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1189-2026 Curved atmospheric rivers and their moisture remnants: a new detection tool for Antarctica Victoire Buffet, Vincent Favier, Benjamin Pohl, and Jonathan D. Wille Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 1189–1210, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1189-2026, 2026 We improve the detection of long corridors of intense moisture transport, known as atmospheric rivers, that affect Antarctica. Our new method can track these rivers even when they curve, cross the South Pole, or break into smaller parts. We show that they cause even more heavy snowfall and warm weather on the continent than previously thought, clarifying their role in shaping Antarctic climate and ice loss. Tue, 07 Jul 2026 19:09:40 +0200 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1117-2026 Distinct bias structures for extratropical cyclones with strong or weak diabatic heating Qidi Yu, Clemens Spensberger, Linus Magnusson, and Thomas Spengler Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 1117–1131, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1117-2026, 2026 Forecast biases of winter extratropical cyclones are quantified by varying diabatic heating intensity. A southwest shift and underestimated intensity are found in the strong heating group. The weaker heating group mainly shows an intensity bias. Specific biases are identified for wind, moisture, temperature, and upper-level circulation fields. Findings highlight that representing moist processes and their interaction with atmospheric dynamics is a key area for future model developments. Mon, 06 Jul 2026 19:09:40 +0200 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1133-2026 Revisiting the surface impacts of the QBO in the Large Ensemble Single Forcing MIP simulations: are teleconnections still too weak? Chaim I. Garfinkel, David Avisar, Scott M. Osprey, Doug Smith, Jian Rao, and Jonathon S. Wright Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 1133–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1133-2026, 2026 The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates variability in the tropical stratosphere, & it impacts surface climate in several parts of the world. However, climate models have been shown to systematically under-estimate the influence of the QBO. Here, we re-evaluate this finding using much larger ensemble sizes than have been previously available based on four separate models. We find that the models are comparatively more successful in capturing QBO influences than reported by previous work. Mon, 06 Jul 2026 19:09:40 +0200 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1089-2026 Atmospheric blocking representation in storm-resolving climate models under historical and future forcing Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Olivia Martius, and Stephan Pfahl Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 1089–1116, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1089-2026, 2026 Storm-resolving climate models are gaining attention for their improved simulation of mesoscale processes. Yet, how finer resolution benefits synoptic-scale phenomena remains unclear. We assess atmospheric blocking in the Next Generation Earth Modelling Systems, European Eddy-Rich Earth System Models, and Destination Earth projects, identifying key bias drivers and their response under a high-emissions climate change scenario. Fri, 03 Jul 2026 19:09:40 +0200 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1073-2026 Revisiting barotropic instability from the perspective of wave evolution theory Yaokun Li Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 1073–1088, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1073-2026, 2026 This work offers a novel theoretical perspective on classical barotropic instability by integrating modal and nonmodal instabilities within a unified diagnostic framework that emphasizes energy and amplitude variations along propagating wave packets. Wed, 01 Jul 2026 19:09:40 +0200 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1051-2026 Impact, drivers and pathways of two Arctic atmospheric rivers in April 2020 Luisa E. Avilés-Podgurski, Patrick Martineau, Hua Lu, Ayako Yamamoto, Amanda C. Maycock, Andrew Orr, Tony Phillips, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Anna E. Hogg, Grzegorz Muszynski, and Andrew Fleming Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 1051–1071, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1051-2026, 2026 Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow filaments of intense poleward water vapour transport. On rare occasions, they reach the Arctic, driving strong warming and melt. In April 2020, two ARs intruded into the central Arctic within one week, raising near-surface temperatures by up to 30°C and leading to extreme precipitation. Their distinct paths and thermodynamic evolution reveal diverse AR impacts on Arctic sea ice and precipitation extremes. Thu, 25 Jun 2026 19:09:40 +0200 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1033-2026 Glacier thinning causes warmer and drier regional climate at the Jostedalsbreen ice cap in western Norway Kristine Flacké Haualand, Marie Pontoppidan, Henning Åkesson, and Tobias Sauter Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 1033–1050, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1033-2026, 2026 Melting glaciers worldwide cause changes in land surface type and elevation that may impact regional climate. In a weather and climate model, we find that these changes result in warming and less precipitation, particularly less snow, over Jostedalsbreen ice cap in western Norway. Most of these impacts are related to thinning of the ice cap and the associated lowering of the surface and reduction in orographic lifting of moist air masses. The findings suggest accelerated melting of the ice cap. Thu, 25 Jun 2026 19:09:40 +0200 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1009-2026 Physical processes leading to extreme day-to-day temperature change – Part 2: Future climate change Kalpana Hamal and Stephan Pfahl Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 1009–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1009-2026, 2026 In a warmer climate, extreme day-to-day temperature changes weaken in extratropical regions but intensify in the tropics during December-February. Whereas, during June–August, they show widespread intensification across most regions. Such changes are driven not only by variations in advection but also by adiabatic and diabatic processes. Together, these findings underscore the need for region-specific adaptation strategies to mitigate the risks associated with rapid temperature fluctuations. Wed, 17 Jun 2026 19:09:40 +0200 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-959-2026 A climatological perspective on cyclones and surface impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean using potential vorticity-based classification Tali Sarit Gens, Leehi Magaritz-Ronen, and Shira Raveh-Rubin Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 959–977, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-959-2026, 2026 Cyclones significantly impact daily life in the Eastern Mediterranean. We classify these cyclones using a novel machine learning tool based on their upper-level state of the atmosphere, which identifies six distinct patterns. The patterns directly link to cyclone development and surface impacts, including rainfall and temperature variability and extremes. The findings reveal emerging opposing trends that may indicate future changes in the region's climate towards warmer and drier cyclones.   Tue, 16 Jun 2026 19:09:40 +0200 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-979-2026 Global monsoon in ICON: the scale-dependent response of Northern Hemisphere monsoons Praveen K. Pothapakula, Andreas F. Prein, Anusha Sunkisala, and Anurag Dipankar Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 979–1007, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-979-2026, 2026 Monsoons provide vital rainfall for billions but are hard to forecast. Using a next-generation climate model, we simulated monsoons at different grid spacings. The model captures key seasonal patterns, but finer grids do not always improve accuracy. They can worsen predictions by overproducing intense rain, as they artificially strengthen weather systems like monsoon lows and waves. Our work shows that smarter model physics is needed for reliable future forecasts and climate projections. Tue, 16 Jun 2026 19:09:40 +0200 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-937-2026 A quasi-Lagrangian perspective on the role of dry and moist processes in the formation of blocked North Atlantic–European weather regimes Seraphine Hauser, Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, and Christian M. Grams Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 937–958, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-937-2026, 2026 The relative roles of dry and moist processes in blocking formation are still not well understood, especially across different blocking types and regions. Using a potential vorticity framework, we study the evolution of large-scale anticyclonic circulation anomalies that are linked to four distinct blocking patterns. We find that the development of anomaly amplitude is shaped mainly by their pathway, which determines the balance between dry and moist contributions, rather than the blocking type. Mon, 15 Jun 2026 19:09:40 +0200 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-915-2026 Predictability of cyclones associated with heavy precipitation events in the Sahara Guorong Ling, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, and Moshe Armon Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 915–935, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-915-2026, 2026 This research examines how well storms that bring heavy rain to the Sahara can be predicted. Using satellite observations and ensemble weather forecasts, we show that predictability varies by season, location, and circulation pattern, with an upper limit of about ten days. These insights can improve early flood warnings and support better planning for scarce water resources in desert regions. Fri, 12 Jun 2026 19:09:40 +0200 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-895-2026 Quantifying the tropospheric response to individual sudden stratospheric warmings revealed by an ensemble simulation strategy Sheena Loeffel, Philip Rupp, Selina Kiefer, Joaquim G. Pinto, Thomas Birner, and Hella Garny Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 895–913, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-895-2026, 2026 We use a dedicated simulation setup to shed light on the question whether, and why, some sudden stratospheric warming events are more likely than others to develop a surface response. We find that the propensity for downward coupling is unique to each event, and that from day one, the chance of a lower-stratospheric response can be predicted – a key step toward anticipating the surface response, moving beyond 'random' surface outcomes to quantified likelihoods of the ensuing surface response. Wed, 03 Jun 2026 19:09:40 +0200 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-873-2026 Identifying controls of extratropical cyclone intensity at genesis time and during intensification in the North Atlantic and Europe Joona Cornér, Clément Bouvier, and Victoria A. Sinclair Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 873–893, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-873-2026, 2026 Understanding the intensification of extratropical cyclones (ETCs) is important from weather forecasting and climate perspectives due to their societal impacts and major role in mid-latitude weather. Here we show that precursors to ETC intensification at genesis time show physically meaningful controls on the final maximum ETC intensity. However, to understand in detail the processes leading to differences in intensity between ETCs, one should study the evolution of multiple ETC precursors. Tue, 02 Jun 2026 19:09:40 +0200 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-857-2026 The role of Rossby wave breaking in the formation and maintenance of tropical-extratropical cloud bands over the South Pacific Romain Pilon, Andries Jan De Vries, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 857–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-857-2026, 2026 South Pacific cloud bands are vital rain sources. Using historical weather data, we investigated how atmospheric waves from the midlatitudes shape these cloud bands. We found that long-lasting cloud bands require sustained high-altitude waves to continuously steer tropical moisture southward. These persistent events occur strictly during the summer. Understanding this dynamic link is essential for improving climate models and predicting how regional rainfall patterns may change in the future. Fri, 29 May 2026 19:09:40 +0200 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-843-2026 Dry and moist convective upper bounds for near-surface temperatures Quentin Nicolas and Belinda Hotz Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 843–856, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-843-2026, 2026 Heatwaves are intensifying at a fast pace, and how much further they can strengthen is unknown. Our study seeks to estimate a physical upper limit to surface air temperature. We show that, unlike what recent work suggested, the intensity of the most extreme heatwaves may not be constrained by the onset of thunderstorms. Instead, the limit is set by the development of a several-kilometer-deep layer of well-mixed air above the ground, and modulated by a very hot and unstable near-surface layer. Wed, 27 May 2026 19:09:40 +0200 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-825-2026 Cold spells induced by slow-moving and amplified large-scale ridge and trough Morteza Babaei, Rune Grand Graversen, Johannes Patrick Stoll, and Jakub Petříček Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 825–841, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-825-2026, 2026 Extreme weather events have historically caused major challenges for humanity. Yet, our understanding of the mechanisms that contribute to their formation remains unclear. Our study provides evidence that locally amplified and slow-moving Rossby waves are responsible for the formation of extreme cold spells. These findings are obtained based on two novel metrics assessing the amplitude and speed of ridges and troughs separately at all longitudes around latitude circles. Wed, 20 May 2026 19:09:40 +0200