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Weather and Climate Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-37
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-37
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

  18 Aug 2020

18 Aug 2020

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This preprint is currently under review for the journal WCD.

A regime view of future atmospheric circulation changes in Northern mid-latitudes

Federico Fabiano1, Virna Meccia1, Paolo Davini2, Paolo Ghinassi1, and Susanna Corti1 Federico Fabiano et al.
  • 1Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC-CNR), Bologna, Italy
  • 2Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC-CNR), Turin, Italy

Abstract. Future wintertime atmospheric circulation changes in the Euro-Atlantic (EAT) and Pacific-North American (PNA) sectors are studied from a Weather Regimes perspective. The CMIP5 and CMIP6 historical simulations performance in reproducing the observed regimes is first evaluated, showing a general improvement of CMIP6 models, more evident for EAT. The circulation changes projected by CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenario simulations are analyzed in terms of the change in the frequency and persistence of the regimes. In the EAT sector, significant positive trends are found for the frequency and persistence of NAO+ for SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios, with a concomitant decrease in the frequency of the Scandinavian Blocking and Atlantic Ridge regimes. For PNA, the Pacific Through regime shows a significant increase, while the Bering Ridge is predicted to decrease in all scenarios analyzed. The spread among the model responses is linked to different levels of warming in the Polar Stratosphere, the North Atlantic and the Arctic.

Federico Fabiano et al.

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Federico Fabiano et al.

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Latest update: 24 Sep 2020
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Short summary
Global warming not only affects the mean state of the climate (i.e. a warmer world) but also its variability. Here we analyze a set of future climate scenarios and show how some configurations of the atmospheric flow will become more frequent and persistent in the future, under continued greenhouse forcing. For example, over Europe models predict an increase of the NAO+ regime, which drives intense precipitation in Northern Europe and the British Isles, and dry conditions over the Mediterranean.
Global warming not only affects the mean state of the climate (i.e. a warmer world) but also its...
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