the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Global warming makes weather in boreal summer more persistent
Abstract. Extreme summer weather often has devastating impacts on society when it lasts for many days. Stalling cyclones can lead to flooding and persistent hot-dry conditions can lead to health impacts and harvest losses. Global warming weakens the hemispheric-wide circulation in boreal summer, which has been shown in both observations and models using multiple circulation metrics. Until now, it is still largely unclear what this weakening implies for regional weather conditions, including their persistence. Using an advanced persistence metric, we show that summer weather has become more-persistent over 1979–2019. State-of-the-art climate models reproduce this upward trend in persistence indicating that it can be attributed to greenhouse gas forcing. Our persistence metric accounts for the full state of the atmosphere at any given moment and is strongly rooted in dynamical systems theory. Thereby it is able to detect dynamical changes previously unseen in more widely used clustering analyses that sharply reduce the amount of information used. We show that under future high-emission scenarios, summer weather will become increasingly more-persistent due to a weakening of the circulation. Most of this increase in persistence, and the associated societal risks, is avoided under an emission scenario compatible with the Paris agreement.
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Interactive discussion
- RC1: 'Review of "Global warming makes weather in boreal summer more persistant, by Coumou and De Luca', Anonymous Referee #1, 07 Sep 2020
- RC2: 'Review of: "Global warming makes weather in boreal summer more persistent" by D. Coumou and P. De Luca', Anonymous Referee #2, 22 Sep 2020
- RC3: 'Review of: "Global warming makes weather in boreal summer more persistent" by D. Coumou and P. De Luca', Anonymous Referee #3, 24 Nov 2020
Interactive discussion
- RC1: 'Review of "Global warming makes weather in boreal summer more persistant, by Coumou and De Luca', Anonymous Referee #1, 07 Sep 2020
- RC2: 'Review of: "Global warming makes weather in boreal summer more persistent" by D. Coumou and P. De Luca', Anonymous Referee #2, 22 Sep 2020
- RC3: 'Review of: "Global warming makes weather in boreal summer more persistent" by D. Coumou and P. De Luca', Anonymous Referee #3, 24 Nov 2020
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Cited
1 citations as recorded by crossref.
Dim Coumou
Paolo De Luca
This preprint has been withdrawn.
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(1457 KB) - BibTeX
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