14 Feb 2023
 | 14 Feb 2023
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal WCD.

Declining Sea Ice and Its Relationship with Arctic Cyclones in Current and Future Climate Part I: Current Climatology in CMIP6 Models

Elina Valkonen, John Cassano, Elizabeth Cassano, and Mark Seefeldt

Abstract. The Arctic climate system is changing rapidly. These large changes will have implications in the Arctic and beyond. One of the main components of the Arctic climate system are Arctic cyclones. The strong coupling between the sea ice and Arctic cyclones makes it an important topic in the warming climate. In this study, an ensemble of CMIP6 model output was utilized from 1985–2014, to determine how well the chosen models depict Arctic cyclones and their relationship with sea ice. A comprehensive climatology of Arctic cyclones and sea ice concentrations (SIC) was provided based on selected models from5 CMIP6 and the results were compared to the ERA5 product. The model results did closely match reanalysis data in depicting the observed sea ice trend. However, we found that the model results struggled to reproduce the strongly coupled relationship between the declining sea ice and Arctic cyclones. The local cyclogenesis in the Arctic was shown to be underestimated, which led to an overall underestimation of Arctic cyclones in the CMIP6 model results. The results also showed differences between model results and ERA5 with regard to cyclone intensities. The the magnitude and sign of the intensity differences varied based10 on the nominal resolution of the model, their surface roughness parametrization and cyclogenesis location.

Elina Valkonen, John Cassano, Elizabeth Cassano, and Mark Seefeldt

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on wcd-2023-2', Anonymous Referee #1, 29 Mar 2023
  • RC2: 'Referee Comment on wcd-2023-2', Anonymous Referee #2, 08 Apr 2023
  • AC1: 'Author Response wcd-2023-2', Elina Valkonen, 18 May 2023
Elina Valkonen, John Cassano, Elizabeth Cassano, and Mark Seefeldt

Data sets

Cyclone Catalogs | Northern Hemisphere cyclone track data Elina Valkonen, Elizabeth Cassano, and John Cassano

Elina Valkonen, John Cassano, Elizabeth Cassano, and Mark Seefeldt


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Latest update: 11 Apr 2024
Short summary
Arctic sea ice is melting fast. This rapid change in the Arctic climate system can also affect the storms in the region. The strong connection between Arctic storms and sea ice makes it an important research subject in warming climate. In this study we compared the results of multiple climate models and ERA5 reanalysis data to each other, with a focus on Arctic storms and declining sea ice.