Articles | Volume 1, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-261-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-261-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 May 2020
Research article |
| 12 May 2020
| 12 May 2020
Intermittency of Arctic–mid-latitude teleconnections: stratospheric pathway between autumn sea ice and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Camille Li
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Stefan Pieter Sobolowski
NORCE, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Martin Peter King
NORCE, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
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Cited
44 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss D. Smith et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y
- Quantifying the state-dependent causal effect of Barents–Kara Sea ice loss on the stratospheric polar vortex in a large ensemble simulation X. Shen et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07802-9
- Cold-Eurasia contributes to arctic warm anomalies B. Wu & S. Ding https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06445-4
- ENSO teleconnections in terms of non-NAO and NAO atmospheric variability M. King et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06697-8
- North Atlantic Oscillation in winter is largely insensitive to autumn Barents-Kara sea ice variability P. Siew et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abg4893
- Still Arctic?—The changing Barents Sea S. Gerland et al. https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2022.00088
- Detectable Human Influence on Reduced Day‐to‐Day Temperature Variability in the Cold Season Driven by Arctic Sea‐Ice Loss P. Siew et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.70005
- Distinct Tropospheric and Stratospheric Mechanisms Linking Historical Barents‐Kara Sea‐Ice Loss and Late Winter Eurasian Temperature Variability M. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095262
- Causal relationships and predictability of the summer East Atlantic teleconnection J. Carvalho-Oliveira et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1561-2024
- The role of Barents–Kara sea ice loss in projected polar vortex changes M. Kretschmer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-715-2020
- Improving seasonal predictions of German Bight storm activity D. Krieger et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024
- Pacific circulation response to eastern Arctic sea ice reduction in seasonal forecast simulations A. Seidenglanz et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05830-9
- Improved teleconnection between Arctic sea ice and the North Atlantic Oscillation through stochastic process representation K. Strommen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-951-2022
- On the linkage between future Arctic sea ice retreat, Euro-Atlantic circulation regimes and temperature extremes over Europe J. Riebold et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-663-2023
- Estimating the contribution of Arctic sea-ice loss to central Asia temperature anomalies: the case of winter 2020/2021 L. Cosford et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adae22
- Dominant features of phasic evolutions in the winter Arctic-midlatitude linkage since 1979 Y. Wang & B. Wu https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7476
- A Nonlinear Multi-Scale Interaction Model for Atmospheric Blocking: A Tool for Exploring the Impact of Changing Climate on Mid-to-High Latitude Weather Extremes D. Luo et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-024-4435-9
- Influence of high-latitude blocking and the northern stratospheric polar vortex on cold-air outbreaks under Arctic amplification of global warming E. Hanna et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad93f3
- Arctic climate response to European radiative forcing: a deep learning study on circulation pattern changes S. Mehrdad et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1223-2024
- The role of Rossby waves in polar weather and climate T. Woollings et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-61-2023
- North American cold events following sudden stratospheric warming in the presence of low Barents-Kara Sea sea ice P. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc215
- Circulation responses to surface heating and implications for polar amplification P. Siew et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-985-2024
- Significant contribution of internal variability to recent Barents–Kara sea ice loss in winter P. Siew et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01582-6
- Eurasian winter temperature variability amplified by synoptic-scale arctic warming and the corresponding sea ice responses Y. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105188
- Nonlinear Response of Atmospheric Blocking to Early Winter Barents–Kara Seas Warming: An Idealized Model Study X. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0720.1
- Local and Remote Atmospheric Circulation Drivers of Arctic Change: A Review G. Henderson et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.709896
- Weakened evidence for mid-latitude impacts of Arctic warming R. Blackport & J. Screen https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00954-y
- Impact of Autumn Arctic Sea Ice concentration on Siberian High: Insights from causal relationship Y. Lin & G. Wang https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108268
- Impacts of Arctic Sea Ice on Cold Season Atmospheric Variability and Trends Estimated from Observations and a Multi-model Large Ensemble Y. Liang et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0578.1
- Important role of stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the Arctic mid-to-upper tropospheric warming in response to sea-ice loss M. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00333-2
- Evaluating Causal Arctic‐Midlatitude Teleconnections in CMIP6 E. Galytska et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037978
- Impacts of early-winter Arctic sea-ice loss on wintertime surface temperature in China X. Xia et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07225-y
- Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia pattern driven by atmospheric blocking in models and observations Z. Kaufman et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad1f40
- Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold‐air outbreaks over the Barents Sea I. Polkova* et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4038
- Applications of Finite-Time Lyapunov Exponent in detecting Lagrangian Coherent Structures for coastal ocean processes: a review Y. Peng et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2024.1345260
- Ocean-atmosphere coupling enhances Eurasian cooling in response to historical Barents-Kara sea-ice loss M. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01211-9
- Reconciling conflicting evidence for the cause of the observed early 21st century Eurasian cooling S. Outten et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-95-2023
- Interdecadal changes in the relationship between Barents-Kara Sea Ice and East Asian surface air temperature in February: the role of stratospheric polar vortex Y. Zhang & D. Hu https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07518-2
- A quasi-objective single-buoy approach for understanding Lagrangian coherent structures and sea ice dynamics N. Aksamit et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1545-2023
- Dominant role of early winter Barents–Kara sea ice extent anomalies in subsequent atmospheric circulation changes in CMIP6 models S. Delhaye et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06904-6
- How do different pathways connect the stratospheric polar vortex to its tropospheric precursors? R. Köhler et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1071-2023
- Possible Linkage Between Winter Extreme Low Temperature Over Western‐Central China and Autumn Sea Ice Loss S. Ding et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD038547
- Arctic sea ice melting has produced distinct sea ice-atmosphere coupled patterns B. Wu https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adac7e
- Weakened relationship between November Barents-Kara sea ice and January Arctic Oscillation after the mid-1990s S. Zheng et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01186-7
44 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss D. Smith et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y
- Quantifying the state-dependent causal effect of Barents–Kara Sea ice loss on the stratospheric polar vortex in a large ensemble simulation X. Shen et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07802-9
- Cold-Eurasia contributes to arctic warm anomalies B. Wu & S. Ding https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06445-4
- ENSO teleconnections in terms of non-NAO and NAO atmospheric variability M. King et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06697-8
- North Atlantic Oscillation in winter is largely insensitive to autumn Barents-Kara sea ice variability P. Siew et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abg4893
- Still Arctic?—The changing Barents Sea S. Gerland et al. https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2022.00088
- Detectable Human Influence on Reduced Day‐to‐Day Temperature Variability in the Cold Season Driven by Arctic Sea‐Ice Loss P. Siew et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.70005
- Distinct Tropospheric and Stratospheric Mechanisms Linking Historical Barents‐Kara Sea‐Ice Loss and Late Winter Eurasian Temperature Variability M. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095262
- Causal relationships and predictability of the summer East Atlantic teleconnection J. Carvalho-Oliveira et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1561-2024
- The role of Barents–Kara sea ice loss in projected polar vortex changes M. Kretschmer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-715-2020
- Improving seasonal predictions of German Bight storm activity D. Krieger et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024
- Pacific circulation response to eastern Arctic sea ice reduction in seasonal forecast simulations A. Seidenglanz et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05830-9
- Improved teleconnection between Arctic sea ice and the North Atlantic Oscillation through stochastic process representation K. Strommen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-951-2022
- On the linkage between future Arctic sea ice retreat, Euro-Atlantic circulation regimes and temperature extremes over Europe J. Riebold et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-663-2023
- Estimating the contribution of Arctic sea-ice loss to central Asia temperature anomalies: the case of winter 2020/2021 L. Cosford et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adae22
- Dominant features of phasic evolutions in the winter Arctic-midlatitude linkage since 1979 Y. Wang & B. Wu https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7476
- A Nonlinear Multi-Scale Interaction Model for Atmospheric Blocking: A Tool for Exploring the Impact of Changing Climate on Mid-to-High Latitude Weather Extremes D. Luo et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-024-4435-9
- Influence of high-latitude blocking and the northern stratospheric polar vortex on cold-air outbreaks under Arctic amplification of global warming E. Hanna et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad93f3
- Arctic climate response to European radiative forcing: a deep learning study on circulation pattern changes S. Mehrdad et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1223-2024
- The role of Rossby waves in polar weather and climate T. Woollings et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-61-2023
- North American cold events following sudden stratospheric warming in the presence of low Barents-Kara Sea sea ice P. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc215
- Circulation responses to surface heating and implications for polar amplification P. Siew et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-985-2024
- Significant contribution of internal variability to recent Barents–Kara sea ice loss in winter P. Siew et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01582-6
- Eurasian winter temperature variability amplified by synoptic-scale arctic warming and the corresponding sea ice responses Y. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105188
- Nonlinear Response of Atmospheric Blocking to Early Winter Barents–Kara Seas Warming: An Idealized Model Study X. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0720.1
- Local and Remote Atmospheric Circulation Drivers of Arctic Change: A Review G. Henderson et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.709896
- Weakened evidence for mid-latitude impacts of Arctic warming R. Blackport & J. Screen https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00954-y
- Impact of Autumn Arctic Sea Ice concentration on Siberian High: Insights from causal relationship Y. Lin & G. Wang https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108268
- Impacts of Arctic Sea Ice on Cold Season Atmospheric Variability and Trends Estimated from Observations and a Multi-model Large Ensemble Y. Liang et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0578.1
- Important role of stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the Arctic mid-to-upper tropospheric warming in response to sea-ice loss M. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00333-2
- Evaluating Causal Arctic‐Midlatitude Teleconnections in CMIP6 E. Galytska et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037978
- Impacts of early-winter Arctic sea-ice loss on wintertime surface temperature in China X. Xia et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07225-y
- Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia pattern driven by atmospheric blocking in models and observations Z. Kaufman et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad1f40
- Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold‐air outbreaks over the Barents Sea I. Polkova* et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4038
- Applications of Finite-Time Lyapunov Exponent in detecting Lagrangian Coherent Structures for coastal ocean processes: a review Y. Peng et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2024.1345260
- Ocean-atmosphere coupling enhances Eurasian cooling in response to historical Barents-Kara sea-ice loss M. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01211-9
- Reconciling conflicting evidence for the cause of the observed early 21st century Eurasian cooling S. Outten et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-95-2023
- Interdecadal changes in the relationship between Barents-Kara Sea Ice and East Asian surface air temperature in February: the role of stratospheric polar vortex Y. Zhang & D. Hu https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07518-2
- A quasi-objective single-buoy approach for understanding Lagrangian coherent structures and sea ice dynamics N. Aksamit et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1545-2023
- Dominant role of early winter Barents–Kara sea ice extent anomalies in subsequent atmospheric circulation changes in CMIP6 models S. Delhaye et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06904-6
- How do different pathways connect the stratospheric polar vortex to its tropospheric precursors? R. Köhler et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1071-2023
- Possible Linkage Between Winter Extreme Low Temperature Over Western‐Central China and Autumn Sea Ice Loss S. Ding et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD038547
- Arctic sea ice melting has produced distinct sea ice-atmosphere coupled patterns B. Wu https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adac7e
- Weakened relationship between November Barents-Kara sea ice and January Arctic Oscillation after the mid-1990s S. Zheng et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01186-7
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 11 Jun 2026
Short summary
Arctic sea ice loss has been linked to changes in mid-latitude weather and climate. However, the literature offers differing views on the strength, robustness, and even existence of these linkages. We use a statistical tool (Causal Effect Networks) to show that one proposed pathway linking Barents–Kara ice and mid-latitude circulation is intermittent in observations and likely only active under certain conditions. This result may help explain apparent inconsistencies across previous studies.
Arctic sea ice loss has been linked to changes in mid-latitude weather and climate. However, the...
