Articles | Volume 1, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-597-2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-597-2020
Research article
 | 
19 Oct 2020
Research article |  | 19 Oct 2020

How an uncertain short-wave perturbation on the North Atlantic wave guide affects the forecast of an intense Mediterranean cyclone (Medicane Zorbas)

Raphael Portmann, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli

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Short summary
In September 2018 an intense Mediterranean cyclone with structural similarities to a hurricane, a so-called medicane, caused severe damage in Greece. Its development was uncertain, even just a few days in advance. The reason for this was uncertainties in the jet stream over the North Atlantic 3 d prior to cyclogenesis that propagated into the Mediterranean. They led to an uncertain position of the upper-level disturbance and, as a result, of the position and thermal structure of the cyclone.