Articles | Volume 1, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-597-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-597-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
19 Oct 2020
Research article |
| 19 Oct 2020
| 19 Oct 2020
How an uncertain short-wave perturbation on the North Atlantic wave guide affects the forecast of an intense Mediterranean cyclone (Medicane Zorbas)
Raphael Portmann
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich, Switzerland
Juan Jesús González-Alemán
Complutense University of Madrid, Department of Earth Physics and Astrophysics, Madrid, Spain
Michael Sprenger
ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich, Switzerland
Heini Wernli
ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich, Switzerland
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Cited
38 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Analysis of the Transition of an Explosive Cyclone to a Mediterranean Tropical-like Cyclone J. Kouroutzoglou et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12111438
- The connection between North Atlantic storm track regimes and eastern Mediterranean cyclonic activity D. Sandler et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1103-2024
- Origin of low-tropospheric potential vorticity in Mediterranean cyclones A. Scherrmann et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-157-2023
- The three-dimensional life cycles of potential vorticity cutoffs: a global and selected regional climatologies in ERA-Interim (1979–2018) R. Portmann et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-507-2021
- The interplay between medicanes and the Mediterranean Sea in the presence of sea surface temperature anomalies B. Jangir et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107625
- Studying Physical Mechanisms of Development of Black Sea Quasi-tropical Cyclones Using a High-resolution Atmosphere Model R. Zaripov et al. https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373921070013
- Coastal Storm-Induced Sinkholes: Insights from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Monitoring A. Busetti et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16193681
- Exploring the regional coupled capabilities of the ICON modelling framework: The case of medicane Ianos A. Campanale et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108975
- A global climatological perspective on the importance of Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport for extreme precipitation events A. de Vries https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-129-2021
- Predictability of extreme surface weather associated with Mediterranean cyclones in ECMWF ensemble forecasts – Part 1: Method and case studies K. Hartmuth et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-129-2026
- Variability of marine heatwaves and atmospheric cyclones in the Mediterranean Sea during the last four decades Y. Androulidakis & I. Pytharoulis https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adb505
- The crucial representation of deep convection for the cyclogenesis of Medicane Ianos F. Pantillon et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1187-2024
- Patterns of atmospheric circulation in Western Europe linked to heavy rainfall in Germany: preliminary analysis into the 2021 heavy rainfall episode C. Ibebuchi https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-03945-5
- Fingerprinting Mediterranean hurricanes using pre-event thermal drops in seawater temperature G. Scardino et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-58335-w
- TRAM: A new non‐hydrostatic fully compressible numerical model suited for all kinds of regional atmospheric predictions R. Romero https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4639
- Characterization of medicanes with a minimal number of geopotential levels A. de la Vara et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7020
- Effects of Mesoscale Eddies on the Intensity of Cyclones in the Mediterranean Sea B. Jangir et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD038607
- Tropical Cyclone Wind Field Reconstruction and Validation Using Measurements from SFMR and SMAP Radiometer X. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14163929
- Integration of microseism, wavemeter buoy, HF radar and hindcast data to analyze the Mediterranean cyclone Helios A. Borzì et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1-2024
- Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone forecasts and analysis using the ECMWF ensemble forecasting system with physical parameterization perturbations M. Saraceni et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13883-2023
- Systematic evaluation of the predictability of different Mediterranean cyclone categories B. Doiteau et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1409-2024
- A Comprehensive AI Approach for Monitoring and Forecasting Medicanes Development J. Martinez-Amaya et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12120220
- Ocean-wave-atmosphere coupling effect in Medicane forecasting J. Karagiorgos et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107418
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- Analyzing the Mediterranean Tropical-like Cyclone Ianos Using the Moist Static Energy Budget M. Saraceni et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16050562
- Marine monitoring by SCUBA divers reveals new aspects of the temperature variability inside the Gulf of Naples (Tyrrhenian Sea) E. de Sabata et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2022.107864
- A comprehensive study on changes in coastal hydrodynamics associated with cyclonic activity N. Salama et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-58575-w
- The Role of Vertical and Horizontal Wind Shear in the Development of Quasi-tropical Cyclones R. Zaripov et al. https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373923070014
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- The upstream–downstream connection of North Atlantic and Mediterranean cyclones in semi-idealized simulations A. Scherrmann et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-419-2024
- Long-term analysis of microseism during extreme weather events: Medicanes and common storms in the Mediterranean Sea A. Borzì et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.169989
- Role of moist and dry air advection in the development of Mediterranean tropical‐like cyclones (medicanes) M. Miglietta et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3951
- Monitoring extreme meteo-marine events in the Mediterranean area using the microseism (Medicane Apollo case study) A. Borzì et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-25395-9
- Warm Core and Deep Convection in Medicanes: A Passive Microwave-Based Investigation G. Panegrossi et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15112838
- Mediterranean cyclones: current knowledge and open questions on dynamics, prediction, climatology and impacts E. Flaounas et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-173-2022
- Observations on the stress related variations of soil radon concentration in the Gulf of Corinth, Greece V. Karastathis et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-09441-0
38 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Analysis of the Transition of an Explosive Cyclone to a Mediterranean Tropical-like Cyclone J. Kouroutzoglou et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12111438
- The connection between North Atlantic storm track regimes and eastern Mediterranean cyclonic activity D. Sandler et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1103-2024
- Origin of low-tropospheric potential vorticity in Mediterranean cyclones A. Scherrmann et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-157-2023
- The three-dimensional life cycles of potential vorticity cutoffs: a global and selected regional climatologies in ERA-Interim (1979–2018) R. Portmann et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-507-2021
- The interplay between medicanes and the Mediterranean Sea in the presence of sea surface temperature anomalies B. Jangir et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107625
- Studying Physical Mechanisms of Development of Black Sea Quasi-tropical Cyclones Using a High-resolution Atmosphere Model R. Zaripov et al. https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373921070013
- Coastal Storm-Induced Sinkholes: Insights from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Monitoring A. Busetti et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16193681
- Exploring the regional coupled capabilities of the ICON modelling framework: The case of medicane Ianos A. Campanale et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108975
- A global climatological perspective on the importance of Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport for extreme precipitation events A. de Vries https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-129-2021
- Predictability of extreme surface weather associated with Mediterranean cyclones in ECMWF ensemble forecasts – Part 1: Method and case studies K. Hartmuth et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-129-2026
- Variability of marine heatwaves and atmospheric cyclones in the Mediterranean Sea during the last four decades Y. Androulidakis & I. Pytharoulis https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adb505
- The crucial representation of deep convection for the cyclogenesis of Medicane Ianos F. Pantillon et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1187-2024
- Patterns of atmospheric circulation in Western Europe linked to heavy rainfall in Germany: preliminary analysis into the 2021 heavy rainfall episode C. Ibebuchi https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-03945-5
- Fingerprinting Mediterranean hurricanes using pre-event thermal drops in seawater temperature G. Scardino et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-58335-w
- TRAM: A new non‐hydrostatic fully compressible numerical model suited for all kinds of regional atmospheric predictions R. Romero https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4639
- Characterization of medicanes with a minimal number of geopotential levels A. de la Vara et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7020
- Effects of Mesoscale Eddies on the Intensity of Cyclones in the Mediterranean Sea B. Jangir et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD038607
- Tropical Cyclone Wind Field Reconstruction and Validation Using Measurements from SFMR and SMAP Radiometer X. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14163929
- Integration of microseism, wavemeter buoy, HF radar and hindcast data to analyze the Mediterranean cyclone Helios A. Borzì et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1-2024
- Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone forecasts and analysis using the ECMWF ensemble forecasting system with physical parameterization perturbations M. Saraceni et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13883-2023
- Systematic evaluation of the predictability of different Mediterranean cyclone categories B. Doiteau et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1409-2024
- A Comprehensive AI Approach for Monitoring and Forecasting Medicanes Development J. Martinez-Amaya et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12120220
- Ocean-wave-atmosphere coupling effect in Medicane forecasting J. Karagiorgos et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107418
- Assessing the skill of high-impact weather forecasts in southern South America: a study on cut-off lows B. Choquehuanca et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-317-2025
- Analyzing the Mediterranean Tropical-like Cyclone Ianos Using the Moist Static Energy Budget M. Saraceni et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16050562
- Marine monitoring by SCUBA divers reveals new aspects of the temperature variability inside the Gulf of Naples (Tyrrhenian Sea) E. de Sabata et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2022.107864
- A comprehensive study on changes in coastal hydrodynamics associated with cyclonic activity N. Salama et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-58575-w
- The Role of Vertical and Horizontal Wind Shear in the Development of Quasi-tropical Cyclones R. Zaripov et al. https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373923070014
- Dynamics, predictability, impacts and climate change considerations of the catastrophic Mediterranean Storm Daniel (2023) E. Flaounas et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1515-2025
- Characteristics and coastal effects of a destructive marine storm in the Gulf of Naples (southern Italy) G. Mattei et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3809-2021
- Episodic vs. Sea Level Rise Coastal Flooding Scenarios at the Urban Scale: Extreme Event Analysis and Adaptation Strategies S. Spadotto et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17131991
- The upstream–downstream connection of North Atlantic and Mediterranean cyclones in semi-idealized simulations A. Scherrmann et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-419-2024
- Long-term analysis of microseism during extreme weather events: Medicanes and common storms in the Mediterranean Sea A. Borzì et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.169989
- Role of moist and dry air advection in the development of Mediterranean tropical‐like cyclones (medicanes) M. Miglietta et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3951
- Monitoring extreme meteo-marine events in the Mediterranean area using the microseism (Medicane Apollo case study) A. Borzì et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-25395-9
- Warm Core and Deep Convection in Medicanes: A Passive Microwave-Based Investigation G. Panegrossi et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15112838
- Mediterranean cyclones: current knowledge and open questions on dynamics, prediction, climatology and impacts E. Flaounas et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-173-2022
- Observations on the stress related variations of soil radon concentration in the Gulf of Corinth, Greece V. Karastathis et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-09441-0
Saved (final revised paper)
Discussed (final revised paper)
Latest update: 06 Jul 2026
Short summary
In September 2018 an intense Mediterranean cyclone with structural similarities to a hurricane, a so-called medicane, caused severe damage in Greece. Its development was uncertain, even just a few days in advance. The reason for this was uncertainties in the jet stream over the North Atlantic 3 d prior to cyclogenesis that propagated into the Mediterranean. They led to an uncertain position of the upper-level disturbance and, as a result, of the position and thermal structure of the cyclone.
In September 2018 an intense Mediterranean cyclone with structural similarities to a hurricane,...
