Articles | Volume 2, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 Jan 2021
Research article |
| 14 Jan 2021
| 14 Jan 2021
Lagrangian detection of precipitation moisture sources for an arid region in northeast Greenland: relations to the North Atlantic Oscillation, sea ice cover, and temporal trends from 1979 to 2017
Lilian Schuster
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences (ACINN), University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Fabien Maussion
Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences (ACINN), University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Lukas Langhamer
Department of Geography, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Gina E. Moseley
Institute of Geology, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Related authors
Finn Wimberly, Lizz Ultee, Lilian Schuster, Matthias Huss, David R. Rounce, Fabien Maussion, Sloan Coats, Jonathan Mackay, and Erik Holmgren
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1778, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1778, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Glacier models have historically been used to understand glacier melt’s contribution to sea level rise. The capacity to project seasonal glacier runoff is a relatively recent development for these models. In this study we provide the first model intercomparison of runoff projections for the glacier evolution models capable of simulating future runoff globally. We compare model projections from 2000 to 2100 for all major river basins larger than 3000 km2 with over 1 % of initial glacier cover.
Harry Zekollari, Matthias Huss, Lilian Schuster, Fabien Maussion, David R. Rounce, Rodrigo Aguayo, Nicolas Champollion, Loris Compagno, Romain Hugonnet, Ben Marzeion, Seyedhamidreza Mojtabavi, and Daniel Farinotti
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1013, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1013, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers are major contributors to sea-level rise and act as key water resources. Here, we model the global evolution of glaciers under the latest generation of climate scenarios. We show that the type of observations used for model calibration can strongly affect the projections at the local scale. Our newly projected 21st century global mass loss is higher than the current community estimate as reported in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.
Sarah Hanus, Lilian Schuster, Peter Burek, Fabien Maussion, Yoshihide Wada, and Daniel Viviroli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2562, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2562, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a coupling of the large-scale glacier model OGGM and the hydrological model CWatM. Projected future increase in discharge is less strong, while future decrease in discharge is stronger when glacier runoff is explicitly included in the large-scale hydrological model. The reason is that glacier runoff is projected to decrease in nearly all basins. We conclude that an improved glacier representation can prevent underestimating future discharge changes in large river basins.
Rodrigo Aguayo, Fabien Maussion, Lilian Schuster, Marius Schaefer, Alexis Caro, Patrick Schmitt, Jonathan Mackay, Lizz Ultee, Jorge Leon-Muñoz, and Mauricio Aguayo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2325, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2325, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting how much water will come from glaciers in the future is a complex task, and there are many factors that make it uncertain. Using a glacier model, we explored 1,920 scenarios for each glacier in the Patagonian Andes. We found that the choice of climate data was the most important factor, while other factors such as different data sources, climate models and emission scenarios played a smaller role.
Annelies Voordendag, Rainer Prinz, Lilian Schuster, and Georg Kaser
The Cryosphere, 17, 3661–3665, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3661-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3661-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Glacier Loss Day (GLD) is the day on which all mass gained from the accumulation period is lost, and the glacier loses mass irrecoverably for the rest of the mass balance year. In 2022, the GLD was already reached on 23 June at Hintereisferner (Austria), and this led to a record-breaking mass loss. We introduce the GLD as a gross yet expressive indicator of the glacier’s imbalance with a persistently warming climate.
Finn Wimberly, Lizz Ultee, Lilian Schuster, Matthias Huss, David R. Rounce, Fabien Maussion, Sloan Coats, Jonathan Mackay, and Erik Holmgren
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1778, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1778, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Glacier models have historically been used to understand glacier melt’s contribution to sea level rise. The capacity to project seasonal glacier runoff is a relatively recent development for these models. In this study we provide the first model intercomparison of runoff projections for the glacier evolution models capable of simulating future runoff globally. We compare model projections from 2000 to 2100 for all major river basins larger than 3000 km2 with over 1 % of initial glacier cover.
Marin Kneib, Amaury Dehecq, Fanny Brun, Fatima Karbou, Laurane Charrier, Silvan Leinss, Patrick Wagnon, and Fabien Maussion
The Cryosphere, 18, 2809–2830, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2809-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2809-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Avalanches are important for the mass balance of mountain glaciers, but few data exist on where and when they occur and which glaciers they affect the most. We developed an approach to map avalanches over large glaciated areas and long periods of time using satellite radar data. The application of this method to various regions in the Alps and High Mountain Asia reveals the variability of avalanches on these glaciers and provides key data to better represent these processes in glacier models.
Harry Zekollari, Matthias Huss, Lilian Schuster, Fabien Maussion, David R. Rounce, Rodrigo Aguayo, Nicolas Champollion, Loris Compagno, Romain Hugonnet, Ben Marzeion, Seyedhamidreza Mojtabavi, and Daniel Farinotti
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1013, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1013, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers are major contributors to sea-level rise and act as key water resources. Here, we model the global evolution of glaciers under the latest generation of climate scenarios. We show that the type of observations used for model calibration can strongly affect the projections at the local scale. Our newly projected 21st century global mass loss is higher than the current community estimate as reported in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.
Larissa van der Laan, Anouk Vlug, Adam A. Scaife, Fabien Maussion, and Kristian Förster
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-387, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-387, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Usually, glacier models are supplied with climate information from long (e.g. 100 year) simulations by global climate models. In this paper, we test the feasibility of supplying glacier models with shorter simulations, to get more accurate information on 5–10 year time scales. Reliable information on these time scales is very important, especially for water management experts to know how much meltwater to expect, for rivers, agriculture and drinking water.
Sarah Hanus, Lilian Schuster, Peter Burek, Fabien Maussion, Yoshihide Wada, and Daniel Viviroli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2562, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2562, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a coupling of the large-scale glacier model OGGM and the hydrological model CWatM. Projected future increase in discharge is less strong, while future decrease in discharge is stronger when glacier runoff is explicitly included in the large-scale hydrological model. The reason is that glacier runoff is projected to decrease in nearly all basins. We conclude that an improved glacier representation can prevent underestimating future discharge changes in large river basins.
Jordi Bolibar, Facundo Sapienza, Fabien Maussion, Redouane Lguensat, Bert Wouters, and Fernando Pérez
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6671–6687, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6671-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6671-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a new modelling framework combining numerical methods with machine learning. Using this approach, we focused on understanding how ice moves within glaciers, and we successfully learnt a prescribed law describing ice movement for 17 glaciers worldwide as a proof of concept. Our framework has the potential to discover important laws governing glacier processes, aiding our understanding of glacier physics and their contribution to water resources and sea-level rise.
Rodrigo Aguayo, Fabien Maussion, Lilian Schuster, Marius Schaefer, Alexis Caro, Patrick Schmitt, Jonathan Mackay, Lizz Ultee, Jorge Leon-Muñoz, and Mauricio Aguayo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2325, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2325, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting how much water will come from glaciers in the future is a complex task, and there are many factors that make it uncertain. Using a glacier model, we explored 1,920 scenarios for each glacier in the Patagonian Andes. We found that the choice of climate data was the most important factor, while other factors such as different data sources, climate models and emission scenarios played a smaller role.
Paul Töchterle, Anna Baldo, Julian B. Murton, Frederik Schenk, R. Lawrence Edwards, Gabriella Koltai, and Gina E. Moseley
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-72, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-72, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
Short summary
Short summary
We present a reconstruction of permafrost and snow cover on the British Isles for the Younger Dryas period, a time of extremely cold winters that happened approximately 12.000 years ago. Our results indicate that seasonal sea ice in the North Atlantic was most likely a curcial factor to explain the observed climate shifts during this time.
Annelies Voordendag, Rainer Prinz, Lilian Schuster, and Georg Kaser
The Cryosphere, 17, 3661–3665, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3661-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3661-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Glacier Loss Day (GLD) is the day on which all mass gained from the accumulation period is lost, and the glacier loses mass irrecoverably for the rest of the mass balance year. In 2022, the GLD was already reached on 23 June at Hintereisferner (Austria), and this led to a record-breaking mass loss. We introduce the GLD as a gross yet expressive indicator of the glacier’s imbalance with a persistently warming climate.
Anika Donner, Paul Töchterle, Christoph Spötl, Irka Hajdas, Xianglei Li, R. Lawrence Edwards, and Gina E. Moseley
Clim. Past, 19, 1607–1621, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1607-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the first finding of fine-grained cryogenic cave minerals in Greenland, a type of speleothem that has been notably difficult to date. We present a successful approach for determining the age of these minerals using 230Th / U disequilibrium and 14C dating. We relate the formation of the cryogenic cave minerals to a well-documented extreme weather event in 1889 CE. Additionally, we provide a detailed report on the mineralogical and isotopic composition of these minerals.
Nidheesh Gangadharan, Hugues Goosse, David Parkes, Heiko Goelzer, Fabien Maussion, and Ben Marzeion
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1417–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We describe the contributions of ocean thermal expansion and land-ice melting (ice sheets and glaciers) to global-mean sea-level (GMSL) changes in the Common Era. The mass contributions are the major sources of GMSL changes in the pre-industrial Common Era and glaciers are the largest contributor. The paper also describes the current state of climate modelling, uncertainties and knowledge gaps along with the potential implications of the past variabilities in the contemporary sea-level rise.
Paul Töchterle, Simon D. Steidle, R. Lawrence Edwards, Yuri Dublyansky, Christoph Spötl, Xianglei Li, John Gunn, and Gina E. Moseley
Geochronology, 4, 617–627, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-617-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-617-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Cryogenic cave carbonates (CCCs) provide a marker for past permafrost conditions. Their formation age is determined by Th / U dating. However, samples can be contaminated with small amounts of Th at formation, which can cause inaccurate ages and require correction. We analysed multiple CCCs and found that varying degrees of contamination can cause an apparent spread of ages, when samples actually formed within distinguishable freezing events. A correction method using isochrons is presented.
Lorenz Hänchen, Cornelia Klein, Fabien Maussion, Wolfgang Gurgiser, Pierluigi Calanca, and Georg Wohlfahrt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 595–611, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-595-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-595-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To date, farmers' perceptions of hydrological changes do not match analysis of meteorological data. In contrast to rainfall data, we find greening of vegetation, indicating increased water availability in the past decades. The start of the season is highly variable, making farmers' perceptions comprehensible. We show that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation has complex effects on vegetation seasonality but does not drive the greening we observe. Improved onset forecasts could help local farmers.
Xianglei Li, Kathleen A. Wendt, Yuri Dublyansky, Gina E. Moseley, Christoph Spötl, and R. Lawrence Edwards
Geochronology, 3, 49–58, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-3-49-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-3-49-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we built a statistical model to determine the initial δ234U in submerged calcite crusts that coat the walls of Devils Hole 2 (DH2) cave (Nevada, USA) and, using a 234U–238U dating method, extended the chronology of the calcite deposition beyond previous well-established 230Th ages and determined the oldest calcite deposited in this cave, a time marker for cave genesis. The novel method presented here may be used in future speleothem studies in similar hydrogeological settings.
Gina E. Moseley, Christoph Spötl, Susanne Brandstätter, Tobias Erhardt, Marc Luetscher, and R. Lawrence Edwards
Clim. Past, 16, 29–50, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-29-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-29-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Abrupt climate change during the last ice age can be used to provide important insights into the timescales on which the climate is capable of changing and the mechanisms that drive those changes. In this study, we construct climate records for the period 60 to 120 ka using stalagmites that formed in caves along the northern rim of the European Alps and find good agreement with the timing of climate changes in Greenland and the Asian monsoon.
Julia Eis, Fabien Maussion, and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 13, 3317–3335, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3317-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3317-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
To provide estimates of past glacier mass changes, an adequate initial state is required. However, information about past glacier states at regional or global scales is largely incomplete. Our study presents a new way to initialize the Open Global Glacier Model from past climate information and present-day geometries. We show that even with perfectly known but incomplete boundary conditions, the problem of model initialization leads to nonunique solutions, and we propose an ensemble approach.
Beatriz Recinos, Fabien Maussion, Timo Rothenpieler, and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 13, 2657–2672, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2657-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2657-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We have implemented a frontal ablation parameterization into the Open Global Glacier Model and have shown that inversion methods based on mass conservation systematically underestimate the mass turnover (and therefore the thickness) of tidewater glaciers when neglecting frontal ablation. This underestimation can rise up to 19 % on a regional scale. Not accounting for frontal ablation will have an impact on the estimate of the glaciers’ potential contribution to sea level rise.
Johannes Horak, Marlis Hofer, Fabien Maussion, Ethan Gutmann, Alexander Gohm, and Mathias W. Rotach
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2715–2734, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2715-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2715-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents an in-depth evaluation of the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research (ICAR) model for high-resolution precipitation fields in complex topography. ICAR is evaluated with data from weather stations located in the Southern Alps of New Zealand. While ICAR underestimates rainfall amounts, it clearly improves over a coarser global model and shows potential to generate precipitation fields for long-term impact studies focused on the local impact of a changing global climate.
Fabien Maussion, Anton Butenko, Nicolas Champollion, Matthias Dusch, Julia Eis, Kévin Fourteau, Philipp Gregor, Alexander H. Jarosch, Johannes Landmann, Felix Oesterle, Beatriz Recinos, Timo Rothenpieler, Anouk Vlug, Christian T. Wild, and Ben Marzeion
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 909–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-909-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-909-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Mountain glaciers are one of the few remaining subsystems of the global climate system for which no globally applicable community-driven model exists. Here we present the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM; www.oggm.org), developed to provide a modular and open-source numerical model framework for simulating past and future change of any glacier in the world.
Tobias Zolles, Fabien Maussion, Stephan Peter Galos, Wolfgang Gurgiser, and Lindsey Nicholson
The Cryosphere, 13, 469–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-469-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-469-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A mass and energy balance model was subjected to sensitivity and uncertainty analysis on two different Alpine glaciers. The global sensitivity analysis allowed for a mass balance measurement independent assessment of the model sensitivity and functioned as a reduction of the model free parameter space. A novel approach of a multi-objective optimization estimates the uncertainty of the simulated mass balance and the energy fluxes. The final model uncertainty is up to 1300 kg m−3 per year.
Hugues Goosse, Pierre-Yves Barriat, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Ben Marzeion, Fabien Maussion, Paolo Pelucchi, and Anouk Vlug
Clim. Past, 14, 1119–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers provide iconic illustrations of past climate change, but records of glacier length fluctuations have not been used systematically to test the ability of models to reproduce past changes. One reason is that glacier length depends on several complex factors and so cannot be simply linked to the climate simulated by models. This is done here, and it is shown that the observed glacier length fluctuations are generally well within the range of the simulations.
Ulrich Strasser, Thomas Marke, Ludwig Braun, Heidi Escher-Vetter, Irmgard Juen, Michael Kuhn, Fabien Maussion, Christoph Mayer, Lindsey Nicholson, Klaus Niedertscheider, Rudolf Sailer, Johann Stötter, Markus Weber, and Georg Kaser
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 151–171, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-151-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-151-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A hydrometeorological and glaciological data set is presented with recordings from several research sites in the Rofental (1891–3772 m a.s.l., Ötztal Alps, Austria). The data sets are spanning 150 years and represent a unique pool of high mountain observations, enabling combined research of atmospheric, cryospheric and hydrological processes in complex terrain, and the development of state-of-the-art hydroclimatological and glacier mass balance models.
Stephan Peter Galos, Christoph Klug, Fabien Maussion, Federico Covi, Lindsey Nicholson, Lorenzo Rieg, Wolfgang Gurgiser, Thomas Mölg, and Georg Kaser
The Cryosphere, 11, 1417–1439, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1417-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1417-2017, 2017
Daniel Farinotti, Douglas J. Brinkerhoff, Garry K. C. Clarke, Johannes J. Fürst, Holger Frey, Prateek Gantayat, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Claire Girard, Matthias Huss, Paul W. Leclercq, Andreas Linsbauer, Horst Machguth, Carlos Martin, Fabien Maussion, Mathieu Morlighem, Cyrille Mosbeux, Ankur Pandit, Andrea Portmann, Antoine Rabatel, RAAJ Ramsankaran, Thomas J. Reerink, Olivier Sanchez, Peter A. Stentoft, Sangita Singh Kumari, Ward J. J. van Pelt, Brian Anderson, Toby Benham, Daniel Binder, Julian A. Dowdeswell, Andrea Fischer, Kay Helfricht, Stanislav Kutuzov, Ivan Lavrentiev, Robert McNabb, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Huilin Li, and Liss M. Andreassen
The Cryosphere, 11, 949–970, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-949-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-949-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
ITMIX – the Ice Thickness Models Intercomparison eXperiment – was the first coordinated performance assessment for models inferring glacier ice thickness from surface characteristics. Considering 17 different models and 21 different test cases, we show that although solutions of individual models can differ considerably, an ensemble average can yield uncertainties in the order of 10 ± 24 % the mean ice thickness. Ways forward for improving such estimates are sketched.
S. Biskop, F. Maussion, P. Krause, and M. Fink
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 209–225, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-209-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-209-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, the hydrological model J2000g was extended and applied to four selected endorheic lake basins in the southern-central part of the TP aiming to provide a more quantitative understanding of the key factors controlling their water balance. The model results indicated that the relative contribution of glacier runoff to total water inflow (between 14 and 30 %) plays a less important role compared to runoff generation from rainfall and snowmelt in non-glacierized land areas.
F. Maussion, W. Gurgiser, M. Großhauser, G. Kaser, and B. Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 9, 1663–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1663-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1663-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Using a newly developed open-source tool, we downscale the glacier surface energy and mass balance fluxes at Shallap Glacier. This allows an unprecedented quantification of the ENSO influence on a tropical glacier at climatological time scales (1980-2013). We find a stronger and steadier anti-correlation between Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) and glacier mass balance than previously reported and provide keys to understand its mechanism.
E. Collier, F. Maussion, L. I. Nicholson, T. Mölg, W. W. Immerzeel, and A. B. G. Bush
The Cryosphere, 9, 1617–1632, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1617-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1617-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the impact of surface debris on glacier energy and mass fluxes and on atmosphere-glacier feedbacks in the Karakoram range, by including debris in an interactively coupled atmosphere-glacier model. The model is run from 1 May to 1 October 2004, with a simple specification of debris thickness. We find an appreciable reduction in ablation that exceeds 5m w.e. on glacier tongues, as well as significant alterations to near-surface air temperatures and boundary layer dynamics.
J. Curio, F. Maussion, and D. Scherer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 109–124, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-109-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-109-2015, 2015
E. Collier, L. I. Nicholson, B. W. Brock, F. Maussion, R. Essery, and A. B. G. Bush
The Cryosphere, 8, 1429–1444, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1429-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1429-2014, 2014
E. Dietze, F. Maussion, M. Ahlborn, B. Diekmann, K. Hartmann, K. Henkel, T. Kasper, G. Lockot, S. Opitz, and T. Haberzettl
Clim. Past, 10, 91–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-91-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-91-2014, 2014
M. Luetscher, M. Borreguero, G. E. Moseley, C. Spötl, and R. L. Edwards
The Cryosphere, 7, 1073–1081, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1073-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1073-2013, 2013
E. Collier, T. Mölg, F. Maussion, D. Scherer, C. Mayer, and A. B. G. Bush
The Cryosphere, 7, 779–795, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-779-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-779-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Dynamical processes in polar regions, incl. polar–midlatitude interactions
The study of the impact of polar warming on global atmospheric circulation and mid-latitude baroclinic waves using a laboratory analog
A comparison of the atmospheric response to the Weddell Sea Polynya in atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) of varying resolutions
European summer weather linked to North Atlantic freshwater anomalies in preceding years
Circulation responses to surface heating and implications for polar amplification
On the linkage between future Arctic sea ice retreat, Euro-Atlantic circulation regimes and temperature extremes over Europe
The role of boundary layer processes in summer-time Arctic cyclones
Reconciling conflicting evidence for the cause of the observed early 21st century Eurasian cooling
The role of Rossby waves in polar weather and climate
Reanalysis representation of low-level winds in the Antarctic near-coastal region
The composite development and structure of intense synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones
Improved teleconnection between Arctic sea ice and the North Atlantic Oscillation through stochastic process representation
Jet stream variability in a polar warming scenario – a laboratory perspective
Pacific Decadal Oscillation modulates the Arctic sea-ice loss influence on the midlatitude atmospheric circulation in winter
Summertime changes in climate extremes over the peripheral Arctic regions after a sudden sea ice retreat
A global climatology of polar lows investigated for local differences and wind-shear environments
Characteristics of long-track tropopause polar vortices
Identification, characteristics and dynamics of Arctic extreme seasons
Interaction between Atlantic cyclones and Eurasian atmospheric blocking drives wintertime warm extremes in the high Arctic
Moisture origin, transport pathways, and driving processes of intense wintertime moisture transport into the Arctic
The role of tropopause polar vortices in the intensification of summer Arctic cyclones
Dynamical and surface impacts of the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming in novel Aeolus wind observations, MLS and ERA5
Dynamical drivers of Greenland blocking in climate models
Interactive 3-D visual analysis of ERA5 data: improving diagnostic indices for marine cold air outbreaks and polar lows
Polar lows – moist-baroclinic cyclones developing in four different vertical wind shear environments
Stratospheric influence on North Atlantic marine cold air outbreaks following sudden stratospheric warming events
A Lagrangian analysis of the dynamical and thermodynamic drivers of large-scale Greenland melt events during 1979–2017
Intermittency of Arctic–mid-latitude teleconnections: stratospheric pathway between autumn sea ice and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation
The role of wave–wave interactions in sudden stratospheric warming formation
Andrei Sukhanovskii, Andrei Gavrilov, Elena Popova, and Andrei Vasiliev
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 863–880, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-863-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-863-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
One of the intriguing problems associated with recent climate trends is the rapid temperature increase in the Arctic. In this paper, we address the Arctic warming problem using a laboratory atmospheric general circulation model. We show that variations in polar cooling lead to significant changes in polar-cell structure, resulting in a substantial increase in temperature. Our modeling results provide a plausible explanation for Arctic warming amplification.
Holly C. Ayres, David Ferreira, Wonsun Park, Joakim Kjellsson, and Malin Ödalen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 805–820, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-805-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-805-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Weddell Sea Polynya (WSP) is a large, closed-off opening in winter sea ice that has opened only a couple of times since we started using satellites to observe sea ice. The aim of this study is to determine the impact of the WSP on the atmosphere. We use three numerical models of the atmosphere, and for each, we use two levels of detail. We find that the WSP causes warming but only locally, alongside an increase in precipitation, and shows some dependence on the large-scale background winds.
Marilena Oltmanns, N. Penny Holliday, James Screen, Ben I. Moat, Simon A. Josey, D. Gwyn Evans, and Sheldon Bacon
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 109–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-109-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The melting of land ice and sea ice leads to freshwater input into the ocean. Based on observations, we show that stronger freshwater anomalies in the subpolar North Atlantic in winter are followed by warmer and drier weather over Europe in summer. The identified link indicates an enhanced predictability of European summer weather at least a winter in advance. It further suggests that warmer and drier summers over Europe can become more frequent under increased freshwater fluxes in the future.
Peter Yu Feng Siew, Camille Li, Stefan Pieter Sobolowski, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, and Mingfang Ting
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3066, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3066, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric circulation response to surface heating at various latitudes was investigated within an idealized framework. We confirm previous results on the importance of temperature advection for balancing heating at lower latitudes. Further poleward, transient eddies become increasingly important and, eventually, radiative cooling also contributes. This promotes amplified surface warming for high-latitude heating, and has implications for links between sea ice loss and polar amplification.
Johannes Riebold, Andy Richling, Uwe Ulbrich, Henning Rust, Tido Semmler, and Dörthe Handorf
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 663–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-663-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Arctic sea ice loss might impact the atmospheric circulation outside the Arctic and therefore extremes over mid-latitudes. Here, we analyze model experiments to initially assess the influence of sea ice loss on occurrence frequencies of large-scale circulation patterns. Some of these detected circulation changes can be linked to changes in occurrences of European temperature extremes. Compared to future global temperature increases, the sea-ice-related impacts are however of secondary relevance.
Hannah L. Croad, John Methven, Ben Harvey, Sarah P. E. Keeley, and Ambrogio Volonté
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 617–638, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-617-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-617-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The interaction between Arctic cyclones and the sea ice surface in summer is investigated by analysing the friction and sensible heat flux processes acting in two cyclones with contrasting evolution. The major finding is that the effects of friction on cyclone strength are dependent on a particular feature of cyclone structure: whether they have a warm or cold core during growth. Friction leads to cooling within both cyclone types in the lower atmosphere, which may contribute to their longevity.
Stephen Outten, Camille Li, Martin P. King, Lingling Suo, Peter Y. F. Siew, Hoffman Cheung, Richard Davy, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Tore Furevik, Shengping He, Erica Madonna, Stefan Sobolowski, Thomas Spengler, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 95–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-95-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-95-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Strong disagreement exists in the scientific community over the role of Arctic sea ice in shaping wintertime Eurasian cooling. The observed Eurasian cooling can arise naturally without sea-ice loss but is expected to be a rare event. We propose a framework that incorporates sea-ice retreat and natural variability as contributing factors. A helpful analogy is of a dice roll that may result in cooling, warming, or anything in between, with sea-ice loss acting to load the dice in favour of cooling.
Tim Woollings, Camille Li, Marie Drouard, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Karim A. Elmestekawy, Momme Hell, Brian Hoskins, Cheikh Mbengue, Matthew Patterson, and Thomas Spengler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 61–80, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-61-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-61-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates large-scale atmospheric variability in polar regions, specifically the balance between large-scale turbulence and Rossby wave activity. The polar regions are relatively more dominated by turbulence than lower latitudes, but Rossby waves are found to play a role and can even be triggered from high latitudes under certain conditions. Features such as cyclone lifetimes, high-latitude blocks, and annular modes are discussed from this perspective.
Thomas Caton Harrison, Stavroula Biri, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, John C. King, Elizabeth C. Kent, Étienne Vignon, and John Turner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1415–1437, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1415-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1415-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Easterly winds encircle Antarctica, impacting sea ice and helping drive ocean currents which shield ice shelves from warmer waters. Reanalysis datasets give us our most complete picture of how these winds behave. In this paper we use satellite data, surface measurements and weather balloons to test how realistic recent reanalysis estimates are. The winds are generally accurate, especially in the most recent of the datasets, but important short-term variations are often misrepresented.
Alexander F. Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1097–1112, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1097-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1097-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the location and intensity of hazardous weather across the Arctic is important for assessing risks to infrastructure, shipping, and coastal communities. This study describes the typical lifetime and structure of intense winter and summer Arctic cyclones. Results show the composite development and structure of intense summer Arctic cyclones are different from intense winter Arctic and North Atlantic Ocean extra-tropical cyclones and from conceptual models.
Kristian Strommen, Stephan Juricke, and Fenwick Cooper
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 951–975, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-951-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-951-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Observational data suggest that the extent of Arctic sea ice influences mid-latitude winter weather. However, climate models generally fail to reproduce this link, making it unclear if models are missing something or if the observed link is just a coincidence. We show that if one explicitly represents the effect of unresolved sea ice variability in a climate model, then it is able to reproduce this link. This implies that the link may be real but that many models simply fail to simulate it.
Costanza Rodda, Uwe Harlander, and Miklos Vincze
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 937–950, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-937-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-937-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We report on a set of laboratory experiments that reproduce a global warming scenario. The experiments show that a decreased temperature difference between the poles and subtropics slows down the eastward propagation of the mid-latitude weather patterns. Another consequence is that the temperature variations diminish, and hence extreme temperature events might become milder in a global warming scenario. Our experiments also show that the frequency of such events increases.
Amélie Simon, Guillaume Gastineau, Claude Frankignoul, Vladimir Lapin, and Pablo Ortega
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 845–861, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-845-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of the Arctic sea-ice loss on atmospheric circulation in midlatitudes depends on persistent sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific. In winter, Arctic sea-ice loss and a warm North Pacific Ocean both induce depressions over the North Pacific and North Atlantic, an anticyclone over Greenland, and a stratospheric anticyclone over the Arctic. However, the effects are not additive as the interaction between both signals is slightly destructive.
Steve Delhaye, Thierry Fichefet, François Massonnet, David Docquier, Rym Msadek, Svenya Chripko, Christopher Roberts, Sarah Keeley, and Retish Senan
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 555–573, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-555-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-555-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
It is unclear how the atmosphere will respond to a retreat of summer Arctic sea ice. Much attention has been paid so far to weather extremes at mid-latitude and in winter. Here we focus on the changes in extremes in surface air temperature and precipitation over the Arctic regions in summer during and following abrupt sea ice retreats. We find that Arctic sea ice loss clearly shifts the extremes in surface air temperature and precipitation over terrestrial regions surrounding the Arctic Ocean.
Patrick Johannes Stoll
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 483–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-483-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-483-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Polar lows are small but intense cyclones and constitute one of the major natural hazards in the polar regions. To be aware of when and where polar lows occur, this study maps polar lows globally by utilizing new atmospheric datasets. Polar lows develop in all marine areas adjacent to sea ice or cold landmasses, mainly in the winter half year. The highest frequency appears in the Nordic Seas. Further, it is found that polar lows are rather similar in the different ocean sub-basins.
Matthew T. Bray and Steven M. Cavallo
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 251–278, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-251-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-251-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Tropopause polar vortices (TPVs) are a high-latitude atmospheric phenomenon that impact weather inside and outside of polar regions. Using a set of long-lived TPVs to gain insight into the conditions that are most supportive of TPV survival, we describe patterns of vortex formation and movement. In addition, we analyze the characteristics of these TPVs and how they vary by season. These results help us to better understand TPVs which, in turn, may improve forecasts of related weather events.
Katharina Hartmuth, Maxi Boettcher, Heini Wernli, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 89–111, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-89-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-89-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we introduce a novel method to objectively define and identify extreme Arctic seasons based on different surface variables. We find that such seasons are resulting from various combinations of unusual seasonal conditions. The occurrence or absence of different atmospheric processes strongly affects the character of extreme Arctic seasons. Further, changes in sea ice and sea surface temperature can strongly influence the formation of such a season in distinct regions.
Sonja Murto, Rodrigo Caballero, Gunilla Svensson, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 21–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-21-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-21-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses reanalysis data to investigate the role of atmospheric blocking, prevailing high-pressure systems and mid-latitude cyclones in driving high-Arctic wintertime warm extreme events. These events are mainly preceded by Ural and Scandinavian blocks, which are shown to be significantly influenced and amplified by cyclones in the North Atlantic. It also highlights processes that need to be well captured in climate models for improving their representation of Arctic wintertime climate.
Lukas Papritz, David Hauswirth, and Katharina Hartmuth
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Water vapor profoundly impacts the Arctic, for example by contributing to sea ice melt. A substantial portion of water vapor in the Arctic originates at mid-latitudes and is transported poleward in a few episodic and intense events. This transport is accomplished by low- and high-pressure systems occurring in specific regions or following particular tracks. Here, we explore how the type of weather system impacts where the water vapor is coming from and how it is transported poleward.
Suzanne L. Gray, Kevin I. Hodges, Jonathan L. Vautrey, and John Methven
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1303–1324, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1303-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1303-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This research demonstrates, using feature identification and tracking, that anticlockwise rotating vortices at about 7 km altitude called tropopause polar vortices frequently interact with storms developing in the Arctic region, affecting their structure and where they occur. This interaction has implications for the predictability of Arctic weather, given the long lifetime but a relatively small spatial scale of these vortices compared with the density of the polar observation network.
Corwin J. Wright, Richard J. Hall, Timothy P. Banyard, Neil P. Hindley, Isabell Krisch, Daniel M. Mitchell, and William J. M. Seviour
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1283–1301, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1283-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1283-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are some of the most dramatic events in the atmosphere and are believed to help cause extreme winter weather events such as the 2018 Beast from the East in Europe and North America. Here, we use unique data from the European Space Agency's new Aeolus satellite to make the first-ever measurements at a global scale of wind changes due to an SSW in the lower part of the atmosphere to help us understand how SSWs affect the atmosphere and surface weather.
Clio Michel, Erica Madonna, Clemens Spensberger, Camille Li, and Stephen Outten
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1131–1148, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1131-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1131-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models still struggle to correctly represent blocking frequency over the North Atlantic–European domain. This study makes use of five large ensembles of climate simulations and the ERA-Interim reanalyses to investigate the Greenland blocking frequency and one of its drivers, namely cyclonic Rossby wave breaking. We particularly try to understand the discrepancies between two specific models, out of the five, that behave differently.
Marcel Meyer, Iuliia Polkova, Kameswar Rao Modali, Laura Schaffer, Johanna Baehr, Stephan Olbrich, and Marc Rautenhaus
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 867–891, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-867-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-867-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Novel techniques from computer science are used to study extreme weather events. Inspired by the interactive 3-D visual analysis of the recently released ERA5 reanalysis data, we improve commonly used metrics for measuring polar winter storms and outbreaks of cold air. The software (Met.3D) that we have extended and applied as part of this study is freely available and can be used generically for 3-D visualization of a broad variety of atmospheric processes in weather and climate data.
Patrick Johannes Stoll, Thomas Spengler, Annick Terpstra, and Rune Grand Graversen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 19–36, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-19-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-19-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Polar lows are intense meso-scale cyclones occurring at high latitudes. The research community has not agreed on a conceptual model to describe polar-low development. Here, we apply self-organising maps to identify the typical ambient sub-synoptic environments of polar lows and find that they can be described as moist-baroclinic cyclones that develop in four different environments characterised by the vertical wind shear.
Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Iuliia Polkova, Lukas Papritz, Paolo Ruggieri, Martin P. King, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Johanna Baehr, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 541–553, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-541-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-541-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the stratospheric influence on marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs) in the North Atlantic using ERA-Interim reanalysis data. MCAOs are associated with severe Arctic weather, such as polar lows and strong surface winds. Sudden stratospheric events are found to be associated with more frequent MCAOs in the Barents and the Norwegian seas, affected by the anomalous circulation over Greenland and Scandinavia. Identification of MCAO precursors is crucial for improved long-range prediction.
Mauro Hermann, Lukas Papritz, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 497–518, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-497-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-497-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We find, by tracing backward in time, that air masses causing extensive melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet originate from further south and lower altitudes than usual. Their exceptional warmth further arises due to ascent and cloud formation, which is special compared to near-surface heat waves in the midlatitudes or the central Arctic. The atmospheric systems and transport pathways identified here are crucial in understanding and simulating the atmospheric control of the ice sheet in the future.
Peter Yu Feng Siew, Camille Li, Stefan Pieter Sobolowski, and Martin Peter King
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 261–275, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-261-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-261-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Arctic sea ice loss has been linked to changes in mid-latitude weather and climate. However, the literature offers differing views on the strength, robustness, and even existence of these linkages. We use a statistical tool (Causal Effect Networks) to show that one proposed pathway linking Barents–Kara ice and mid-latitude circulation is intermittent in observations and likely only active under certain conditions. This result may help explain apparent inconsistencies across previous studies.
Erik A. Lindgren and Aditi Sheshadri
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 93–109, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-93-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-93-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are extreme events that influence surface weather up to 2 months after onset. We remove wave–wave interactions (WWIs) in vertical sections of a general circulation model to investigate the role of WWIs in SSW formation. We show that the effects of WWIs depend strongly on the pressure levels where they occur and the zonal structure of the wave forcing in the troposphere. Our results highlight the importance of upper-level processes in stratospheric dynamics.
Cited articles
Baker, A. J., Sodemann, H., Baldini, J. U., Breitenbach, S. F., Johnson, K. R., van Hunen, J., and Pingzhong, Z.: Seasonality of westerly moisture transport in the East Asian summer monsoon and its implications for interpreting precipitation δ18O, J. Geophys. Res., 120, 5850–5862, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022919, 2015. a
Bekryaev, R. V., Polyakov, I. V., and Alexeev, V. A.: Role of polar
amplification in long-term surface air temperature variations and modern Arctic warming, J. Climate, 23, 3888–3906, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3297.1, 2010. a
Berrisford, P., Kållberg, P., Kobayashi, S., Dee, D., Uppala, S., Simmons, A. J., Poli, P., and Sato, H.: Atmospheric conservation properties in ERA-Interim, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 1381–1399, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.864, 2011. a
Bintanja, R. and Andry, O.: Towards a rain-dominated Arctic, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 263–267, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3240, 2017.
a
Bintanja, R. and Van der Linden, E.: The changing seasonal climate in the
Arctic, Scient. Rep., 3, 1556, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep01556, 2013. a
Biskaborn, B. K., Smith, S. L., Noetzli, J., Matthes, H., Vieira, G.,
Streletskiy, D. A., Schoeneich, P., Romanovsky, V. E., Lewkowicz, A. G.,
Abramov, A., Allard, M., Boike, J., Cable, W. L., Christiansen, H. H.,
Delaloye, R., Diekmann, B., Drozdov, D., Etzelmüller, B., Grosse, G.,
Guglielmin, M., Ingeman-Nielsen, T., Isaksen, K., Ishikawa, M., Johansson, M., Johannsson, H., Joo, A., Kaverin, D., Kholodov, A., Konstantinov, P.,
Kröger, T., Lambiel, C., Lanckman, J.-P., Luo, D., Malkova, G., Meiklejohn, I., Moskalenko, N., Oliva, M., Phillips, M., Ramos, M., Sannel,
A. B. K., Sergeev, D., Seybold, C., Skryabin, P., Vasiliev, A., Wu, Q.,
Yoshikawa, K., Zheleznyak, M., and Lantuit, H.: Permafrost is warming at a
global scale, Nat. Commun., 10, 264, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4, 2019. a
Bliss, A. C., Steele, M., Peng, G., Meier, W. N., and Dickinson, S.: Regional
variability of Arctic sea ice seasonal change climate indicators from a passive microwave climate data record, Environ. Res. Lett., 14, 045003,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafb84, 2019. a, b
Born, A. and Nisancioglu, K. H.: Melting of Northern Greenland during the last interglaciation, The Cryosphere, 6, 1239–1250,
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1239-2012, 2012. a
Bromwich, D. H., Wilson, A. B., Bai, L.-S., Moore, G. W. K., and Bauer, P.: A comparison of the regional Arctic System Reanalysis and the global ERA-Interim Reanalysis for the Arctic, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 142, 644–658, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2527, 2016. a, b
Brown, J., Ferrians Jr., O., Heginbottom, J., and Melnikov, E.: Circum-Arctic
map of permafrost and ground-ice conditions, National Snow and Ice Data
Center, Boulder, Colorado, USA, 1998. a
Collins, M., Knutti, R., Arblaster, J., Dufresne, J.-L., Fichefet, T.,
Friedlingstein, P., Gao, X., Gutowski, W., Johns, T., Krinner, G., Shongwe,
M., Tebaldi, C., Weaver, A., Wehner, M., Allen, M., Andrews, T., Beyerle, U.,
Bitz, C., Bony, S., and Booth, B.: Long-term Climate Change: Projections,
Commitments and Irreversibility, pp. 1029–1136, Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, K, 2013. a, b
Comiso, J. C. and Hall, D. K.: Climate trends in the Arctic as observed from
space, Wiley Interdisciplin. Rev.: Clim. Change, 5, 389–409,
https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.277, 2014. a
Dahl-Jensen, D., Mosegaard, K., Gundestrup, N., Clow, G. D., Johnsen, S. J.,
Hansen, A. W., and Balling, N.: Past Temperatures Directly from the Greenland Ice Sheet, Science, 282, 268–271, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.282.5387.268, 1998. a
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S., Simmons, A., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S.,
Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., and Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011. a, b
EastGRIP: East Greenland Ice-core Project, available at: https://eastgrip.nbi.ku.dk/ (last access: 13 July 2020), 2018. a
Faber, A.-K., Møllesøe Vinther, B., Sjolte, J., and Anker Pedersen, R.: How does sea ice influence δ18O of Arctic precipitation?,
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 5865–5876, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5865-2017, 2017. a
Falkena, S. K., Wiljes, J., Weisheimer, A., and Shepherd, T. G.: Revisiting
the identification of wintertime atmospheric circulation regimes in the
Euro‐Atlantic sector, Q. J. Ro. Meteorol. Soc., 146, 2801–2814, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3818, 2020. a
Fremme, A. and Sodemann, H.: The role of land and ocean evaporation on the
variability of precipitation in the Yangtze River valley, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2525–2540, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2525-2019, 2019. a
Grams, C. M., Beerli, R., Pfenninger, S., Staffell, I., and Wernli, H.:
Balancing Europe's wind-power output through spatial deployment informed by
weather regimes, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 557–562, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3338, 2017. a
Hanna, E., Cropper, T. E., Jones, P. D., Scaife, A. A., and Allan, R.: Recent
seasonal asymmetric changes in the NAO (a marked summer decline and increased
winter variability) and associated changes in the AO and Greenland Blocking
Index, Int. J. Climatol., 35, 2540–2554, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4157, 2015. a
Hanna, E., Cropper, T. E., Hall, R. J., and Cappelen, J.: Greenland Blocking
Index 1851–2015: a regional climate change signal, Int. J. Climatol., 36, 4847–4861, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4673, 2016. a, b, c
Hu, Q., Jiang, D., Lang, X., and Yao, S.: Moisture sources of summer
precipitation over eastern China during 1979–2009: A Lagrangian transient
simulation, Int. J. Climatol., https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6781, in press, 2020. a
Hurrell, J. W. and Deser, C.: North Atlantic climate variability: the role of
the North Atlantic Oscillation, J. Mar. Syst., 79, 231–244,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.11.002, 2010. a
Kattsov, V. M. and Walsh, J. E.: Twentieth-century trends of Arctic
precipitation from observational data and a climate model simulation, J.
Climate, 13, 1362–1370, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1362:TCTOAP>2.0.CO;2, 2000. a
Koenigk, T., Brodeau, L., Graversen, R. G., Karlsson, J., Svensson, G.,
Tjernström, M., Willén, U., and Wyser, K.: Arctic climate change in
21st century CMIP5 simulations with EC-Earth, Clim. Dynam., 40, 2719–2743, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1505-y, 2013. a
Koyama, T. and Stroeve, J.: Greenland monthly precipitation analysis from the
Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR): 2000–2012, Polar Sci., 19, 1–12,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polar.2018.09.001, 2019. a, b, c
Kurita, N.: Origin of Arctic water vapor during the ice-growth season, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L02709, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046064, 2011. a
Langhamer, L., Sauter, T., and Mayr, G. J.: Lagrangian Detection of Moisture
Sources for the Southern Patagonia Icefield (1979–2017), Front. Earth Sci., 6, 219, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2018.00219, 2018. a, b, c
Mernild, S. H., Hanna, E., McConnell, J. R., Sigl, M., Beckerman, A. P., Yde,
J. C., Cappelen, J., Malmros, J. K., and Steffen, K.: Greenland precipitation
trends in a long-term instrumental climate context (1890–2012): evaluation
of coastal and ice core records, Int. J. Climatol., 35, 303–320, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3986, 2015. a
Miller, G. H., Alley, R. B., Brigham-Grette, J., Fitzpatrick, J. J., Polyak, L., Serreze, M. C., and White, J. W.: Arctic amplification: can the past
constrain the future?, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 1779–1790,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.02.008, 2010. a
Moseley, G. E.: Report on the findings of the Northeast Greenland Caves Project 2015 expedition to Kronprins Christian Land, Northeast
Greenland, Northeast Greenland Caves Project, Innsbruck, Austria, 96 pp.,
ISBN 978-3-9504355-0-4, 2016. a
NEGIS project: Greenland in a Warmer Climate, available at:
http://community.dur.ac.uk/negis/, last access: 13 July 2020. a
NOAA: NAO-index: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration climate prediction centre, available at:
https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices/nao_index.tim (last
access: 24 January 2020), 2020a. a
NOAA: GBI: from the U of Lincoln based on Hanna et al. (2016), National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration climate prediction centre, available at:
https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/gbi.mon.data (last
access: 11 November 2020), 2020b. a
Nusbaumer, J., Alexander, P. M., LeGrande, A. N., and Tedesco, M.: Spatial
Shift of Greenland Moisture Sources Related to Enhanced Arctic Warming,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 14723–14731, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084633, 2019. a, b, c
Onarheim, I. H., Eldevik, T., Smedsrud, L. H., and Stroeve, J. C.: Seasonal
and regional manifestation of Arctic sea ice loss, J. Climate, 31, 4917–4932, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0427.1, 2018. a, b
Ortega, P., Swingedouw, D., Masson-Delmotte, V., Risi, C., Vinther, B., Yiou,
P., Vautard, R., and Yoshimura, K.: Characterizing atmospheric circulation
signals in Greenland ice cores: insights from a weather regime approach, Clim. Dynam., 43, 2585–2605, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2074-z, 2014. a
Owens, R. G. and Hewson, T.: ECMWF Forecast User Guide, ECMWF, Reading,
https://doi.org/10.21957/m1cs7h, 2018. a
Pedregosa, F., Varoquaux, G., Gramfort, A., Michel, V., Thirion, B., Grisel,
O., Blondel, M., Prettenhofer, P., Weiss, R., Dubourg, V., Vanderplas, J.,
Passos, A., Cournapeau, D., Brucher, M., Perrot, M., and Duchesnay, E.:
Scikit-Learn: Machine Learning in Python, J. Mach. Learn. Res., 12, 2825–2830, 2011. a, b
Pendergrass, A. G. and Knutti, R.: The Uneven Nature of Daily Precipitation
and Its Change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 11980–11988,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080298, 2018. a
Schuster, L., Maussion, F., Langhamer, L., and Moseley, G. E.: Lagrangian moisture sources for an arid region in northeast Greenland, Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3972882, 2020.
a
Screen, J. A. and Simmonds, I.: The central role of diminishing sea ice in
recent Arctic temperature amplification, Nature, 464, 1334,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09051, 2010. a
Shepherd, T. G.: Effects of a warming Arctic, Science, 353, 989–990,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aag2349, 2016. a, b
Sodemann, H. and Zubler, E.: Seasonal and inter-annual variability of the
moisture sources for Alpine precipitation during 1995–2002, Int. J. Climatol., 30, 947–961, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1932, 2010. a, b
Sodemann, H., Masson-Delmotte, V., Schwierz, C., Vinther, B. M., and Wernli,
H.: Interannual variability of Greenland winter precipitation sources: 2. Effects of North Atlantic Oscillation variability on stable isotopes in
precipitation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, D12111, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009416, 2008b. a
Sprenger, M. and Wernli, H.: The LAGRANTO Lagrangian analysis tool – version 2.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2569–2586, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2569-2015, 2015. a
Stroeve, J. and Notz, D.: Changing state of Arctic sea ice across all seasons, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 103001, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aade56, 2018. a
Tsukernik, M., Chase, T. N., Serreze, M. C., Barry, R. G., Pielke, R., Herman, B., and Zeng, X.: On the regulation of minimum mid-tropospheric temperatures in the Arctic, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L06112, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018831, 2004. a
Van Der Ent, R. J. and Tuinenburg, O. A.: The residence time of water in the
atmosphere revisited, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 779–790,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-779-2017, 2017. a
Wernli, B. H. and Davies, H. C.: A Lagrangian-based analysis of extratropical
cyclones. I: The method and some applications, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 123, 467–489, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712353811, 1997. a
Winschall, A., Pfahl, S., Sodemann, H., and Wernli, H.: Comparison of Eulerian and Lagrangian moisture source diagnostics – the flood event in eastern Europe in May 2010, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6605–6619, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6605-2014, 2014. a
Zeng, X., Brunke, M. A., Zhou, M., Fairall, C., Bond, N. A., and Lenschow, D. H.: Marine atmospheric boundary layer height over the eastern Pacific: Data analysis and model evaluation, J. Climate, 17, 4159–4170, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3190.1, 2004. a
Short summary
Precipitation and moisture sources over an arid region in northeast Greenland are investigated from 1979 to 2017 by a Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic driven by reanalysis data. Dominant winter moisture sources are the North Atlantic above 45° N. In summer local and north Eurasian continental sources dominate. In positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, evaporation and moisture transport from the Norwegian Sea are stronger, resulting in more precipitation.
Precipitation and moisture sources over an arid region in northeast Greenland are investigated...
