Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 2, issue 4
Articles | Volume 2, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1209-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1209-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 2, issue 4
Research article
 | 
15 Dec 2021
Research article |  | 15 Dec 2021

Bimodality in ensemble forecasts of 2 m temperature: identification

Cameron Bertossa, Peter Hitchcock, Arthur DeGaetano, and Riwal Plougonven

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Latest update: 27 Aug 2025
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Short summary
While the assumption of Gaussianity leads to many simplifications, ensemble forecasts often exhibit non-Gaussian distributions. This work has systematically identified the presence of a specific case of non-Gaussianity, bimodality. It has been found that bimodality occurs in a large portion of global 2 m temperature forecasts. This has drastic implications on forecast skill as the minimum probability in a bimodal distribution often lies at the maximum probability of a Gaussian distribution.
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