Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 4, issue 4
Articles | Volume 4, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1001-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1001-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 4, issue 4
Research article
 | 
21 Nov 2023
Research article |  | 21 Nov 2023

Intrinsic predictability limits arising from Indian Ocean Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) heating: effects on tropical and extratropical teleconnections

David Martin Straus, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Sarah-Jane Lock, Franco Molteni, and Priyanka Yadav

Data sets

Extended-range ensemble reforecasts for 1 Nov starts 1981-2016 ECMWF Research Department https://doi.org/10.21957/ms6x-gk09

Extended-range ensemble reforecasts for 1 Jan starts 1981-2016 ECMWF Research Department https://doi.org/10.21957/qtqh-5r32

Extended-range ensemble reforecasts for 1 Nov starts 1981-2016 that include MJO in phases 2 or 3 ECMWF Research Department https://doi.org/10.21957/tzgp-tv45

Extended-range ensemble reforecasts for 1 Nov starts 1981-2016 that include MJO in phases 2 or 3 ECMWF Research Department https://doi.org/10.21957/cf3y-0343

Extended-range ensemble reforecasts for 1 Jan starts 1981-2016 that include MJO in phases 2 or 3 ECMWF Research Department https://doi.org/10.21957/ndqr-vs12

Extended-range ensemble reforecasts for 1 Nov starts 1981-2016 that include MJO in phases 2 or 3 ECMWF Research Department https://doi.org/10.21957/kt7k-1r77

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Short summary
The global response to the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is potentially predictable. Yet the diabatic heating is uncertain even within a particular episode of the MJO. Experiments with a global model probe the limitations imposed by this uncertainty. The large-scale tropical heating is predictable for 25 to 45 d, yet the associated Rossby wave source that links the heating to the midlatitude circulation is predictable for 15 to 20 d. This limitation has not been recognized in prior work.
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