Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 4, issue 2
Articles | Volume 4, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-287-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-287-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 4, issue 2
Research article
 | 
04 Apr 2023
Research article |  | 04 Apr 2023

Improved extended-range prediction of persistent stratospheric perturbations using machine learning

Raphaël de Fondeville, Zheng Wu, Enikő Székely, Guillaume Obozinski, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen

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Latest update: 23 Oct 2025
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Short summary
We propose a fully data-driven, interpretable, and computationally scalable framework to characterize sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), extract statistically significant precursors, and produce machine learning (ML) forecasts. By successfully leveraging the long-lasting impact of SSWs, the ML predictions outperform sub-seasonal numerical forecasts for lead times beyond 25 d. Post-processing numerical predictions using their ML counterparts yields a performance increase of up to 20 %.
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