Articles | Volume 5, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-395-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-395-2024
Research article
 | 
18 Mar 2024
Research article |  | 18 Mar 2024

Mid-Pliocene not analogous to high-CO2 climate when considering Northern Hemisphere winter variability

Arthur Merlijn Oldeman, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Aarnout J. van Delden, and Henk A. Dijkstra

Data sets

An Evaluation of the Performance of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Version 3 (https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.20thC_ReanV3.html) L. C. Slivinski et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0505.1

Model code and software

Zenodo codes, arthuroldeman/midpliocene-nam v2.0 A. M. Oldeman https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10558553

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Short summary

The mid-Pliocene, a geological period around 3 million years ago, is sometimes considered the best analogue for near-future climate. It saw similar CO2 concentrations to the present-day but also a slightly different geography. In this study, we use climate model simulations and find that the Northern Hemisphere winter responds very differently to increased CO2 or to the mid-Pliocene geography. Our results weaken the potential of the mid-Pliocene as a future climate analogue.