Articles | Volume 6, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1379-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1379-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The impacts of climate change on tropical-to-extratropical transitions in the North Atlantic Basin
Aude Garin
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Quebec in Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Center for the Study and Simulation of Climate at the Regional Scale (ESCER), University of Quebec in Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Canada Research Center on the Dynamics of the Earth System (GEOTOP), University of Quebec in Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Francesco S. R. Pausata
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Quebec in Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Center for the Study and Simulation of Climate at the Regional Scale (ESCER), University of Quebec in Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Canada Research Center on the Dynamics of the Earth System (GEOTOP), University of Quebec in Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Mathieu Boudreault
Center for the Study and Simulation of Climate at the Regional Scale (ESCER), University of Quebec in Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Canada Research Center on the Dynamics of the Earth System (GEOTOP), University of Quebec in Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Department of Mathematics, Center for the Study and Simulation of Climate at the Regional Scale (ESCER), University of Quebec in Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Roberto Ingrosso
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Quebec in Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Center for the Study and Simulation of Climate at the Regional Scale (ESCER), University of Quebec in Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Canada Research Center on the Dynamics of the Earth System (GEOTOP), University of Quebec in Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council (ISAC – CNR), Lecce, Italy
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Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 13161–13176, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-13161-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-13161-2025, 2025
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Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David I. Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano Mazur Chiessi, Henk A. Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura C. Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Bablu Sinha, Steven C. Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
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Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan P. Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Ann Kristin Klose, Jesse F. Abrams, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Torsten Albrecht, David Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Javier Blasco Navarro, Victor Brovkin, Eleanor Burke, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Reik V. Donner, Markus Drüke, Goran Georgievski, Heiko Goelzer, Anna B. Harper, Gabriele Hegerl, Marina Hirota, Aixue Hu, Laura C. Jackson, Colin Jones, Hyungjun Kim, Torben Koenigk, Peter Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, Hannah Liddy, José Licón-Saláiz, Maxence Menthon, Marisa Montoya, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Francesco Pausata, Stefan Rahmstorf, Karoline Ramin, Alexander Robinson, Johan Rockström, Anastasia Romanou, Boris Sakschewski, Christina Schädel, Steven Sherwood, Robin S. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Didier Swingedouw, Matteo Willeit, Wilbert Weijer, Richard Wood, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
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Iuri Gorenstein, Ilana Wainer, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Luciana F. Prado, Pedro L. S. Dias, Allegra N. LeGrande, Clay R. Tabor, and William R. Peltier
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-921, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-921, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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Marco Gaetani, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Shivangi Tiwari, M. Carmen Alvarez Castro, and Qiong Zhang
Clim. Past, 20, 1735–1759, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1735-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1735-2024, 2024
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Manuel Grenier, Mathieu Boudreault, David A. Carozza, Jérémie Boudreault, and Sébastien Raymond
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2577–2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2577-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2577-2024, 2024
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Modelling floods at the street level for large countries like Canada and the United States is difficult and very costly. However, many applications do not necessarily require that level of detail. As a result, we present a flood modelling framework built with artificial intelligence for socioeconomic studies like trend and scenarios analyses. We find for example that an increase of 10 % in average precipitation yields an increase in displaced population of 18 % in Canada and 14 % in the US.
Gabriel Morin, Mathieu Boudreault, and Jorge Luis García-Franco
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-460, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-460, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Roberto Ingrosso, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, and Gianfausto Salvadori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2443–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, 2023
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Tornadoes represent disruptive and dangerous weather events. The prediction of these small-scale phenomena depends on the resolution of present weather forecast and climatic projections. This work discusses the occurrence of tornadoes in terms of atmospheric variables and provides analytical expressions for their conditional probability. These formulas represent a tool for tornado alert systems and for estimating the future evolution of tornado frequency and intensity in climate projections.
Seth Bryant, Heather McGrath, and Mathieu Boudreault
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The advent of new satellite technologies improves our ability to study floods. While the depth of water at flooded buildings is generally the most important variable for flood researchers, extracting this accurately from satellite data is challenging. The software tool presented here accomplishes this, and tests show the tool is more accurate than competing tools. This achievement unlocks more detailed studies of past floods and improves our ability to plan for and mitigate disasters.
Benjamin Ward, Francesco S. R. Pausata, and Nicola Maher
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 975–996, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-975-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-975-2021, 2021
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Using the largest ensemble of a climate model currently available, the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE), we investigated the impact of the spatial distribution of volcanic aerosols on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response. By selecting three eruptions with different aerosol distributions, we found that the shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is the main driver of the ENSO response, while other mechanisms commonly invoked seem less important in our model.
Francesco S. R. Pausata, Gabriele Messori, Jayoung Yun, Chetankumar A. Jalihal, Massimo A. Bollasina, and Thomas M. Marchitto
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Samuel Dandoy, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Suzana J. Camargo, René Laprise, Katja Winger, and Kerry Emanuel
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Julien Chartrand and Francesco S. R. Pausata
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This study explores the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the winter climate of eastern North America using reanalysis data. Results show that negative phases are linked with an increase in frequency of winter storms developing on the east coast of the United States, resulting in much heavier snowfall over the eastern United States. On the contrary, an increase in cyclone activity over southeastern Canada results in slightly heavier precipitation during positive phases.
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Short summary
As tropical cyclones move poleward, they can transform into extratropical cyclones, a process known as extratropical transition. These storms can pose serious risks to human lives and cause damage to infrastructure along the northeastern coasts of the US and Canada. Our study investigates the impacts of climate change on the frequency, intensity, and location of extratropical transitions, revealing that transitioning storms may become more destructive in the future but may not be more frequent.
As tropical cyclones move poleward, they can transform into extratropical cyclones, a process...