Articles | Volume 6, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-245-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-245-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Revisiting the moisture budget of the Mediterranean region in the ERA5 reanalysis
Roshanak Tootoonchi
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Civil, Environmental and Mechanical Engineering, University of Trento, Trento, Italy
Simona Bordoni
Department of Civil, Environmental and Mechanical Engineering, University of Trento, Trento, Italy
Roberta D'Agostino
National Research Council, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Lecce, Italy
Related authors
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, René Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3173–3205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought is a creeping phenomenon but is often still analysed and managed like an isolated event, without taking into account what happened before and after. Here, we review the literature and analyse five cases to discuss how droughts and their impacts develop over time. We find that the responses of hydrological, ecological, and social systems can be classified into four types and that the systems interact. We provide suggestions for further research and monitoring, modelling, and management.
Hans Segura, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Philipp Weiss, Sebastian K. Müller, Thomas Rackow, Junhong Lee, Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Imme Benedict, Matthias Aengenheyster, Razvan Aguridan, Gabriele Arduini, Alexander J. Baker, Jiawei Bao, Swantje Bastin, Eulàlia Baulenas, Tobias Becker, Sebastian Beyer, Hendryk Bockelmann, Nils Brüggemann, Lukas Brunner, Suvarchal K. Cheedela, Sushant Das, Jasper Denissen, Ian Dragaud, Piotr Dziekan, Madeleine Ekblom, Jan Frederik Engels, Monika Esch, Richard Forbes, Claudia Frauen, Lilli Freischem, Diego García-Maroto, Philipp Geier, Paul Gierz, Álvaro González-Cervera, Katherine Grayson, Matthew Griffith, Oliver Gutjahr, Helmuth Haak, Ioan Hadade, Kerstin Haslehner, Shabeh ul Hasson, Jan Hegewald, Lukas Kluft, Aleksei Koldunov, Nikolay Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Shunya Koseki, Sergey Kosukhin, Josh Kousal, Peter Kuma, Arjun U. Kumar, Rumeng Li, Nicolas Maury, Maximilian Meindl, Sebastian Milinski, Kristian Mogensen, Bimochan Niraula, Jakub Nowak, Divya Sri Praturi, Ulrike Proske, Dian Putrasahan, René Redler, David Santuy, Domokos Sármány, Reiner Schnur, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Dorian Spät, Birgit Sützl, Daisuke Takasuka, Adrian Tompkins, Alejandro Uribe, Mirco Valentini, Menno Veerman, Aiko Voigt, Sarah Warnau, Fabian Wachsmann, Marta Wacławczyk, Nils Wedi, Karl-Hermann Wieners, Jonathan Wille, Marius Winkler, Yuting Wu, Florian Ziemen, Janos Zimmermann, Frida A.-M. Bender, Dragana Bojovic, Sandrine Bony, Simona Bordoni, Patrice Brehmer, Marcus Dengler, Emanuel Dutra, Saliou Faye, Erich Fischer, Chiel van Heerwaarden, Cathy Hohenegger, Heikki Järvinen, Markus Jochum, Thomas Jung, Johann H. Jungclaus, Noel S. Keenlyside, Daniel Klocke, Heike Konow, Martina Klose, Szymon Malinowski, Olivia Martius, Thorsten Mauritsen, Juan Pedro Mellado, Theresa Mieslinger, Elsa Mohino, Hanna Pawłowska, Karsten Peters-von Gehlen, Abdoulaye Sarré, Pajam Sobhani, Philip Stier, Lauri Tuppi, Pier Luigi Vidale, Irina Sandu, and Bjorn Stevens
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-509, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-509, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
The nextGEMS project developed two Earth system models that resolve processes of the order of 10 km, giving more fidelity to the representation of local phenomena, globally. In its fourth cycle, nextGEMS performed simulations with coupled ocean, land, and atmosphere over the 2020–2049 period under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. Here, we provide an overview of nextGEMS, insights into the model development, and the realism of multi-decadal, kilometer-scale simulations.
Michele Filippucci, Simona Bordoni, and Paolo Davini
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1207–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1207-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric blocking is a recurring phenomenon in midlatitudes, causing winter cold spells and summer heat waves. Current models underestimate it, hindering understanding of global warming's impact on extremes. In this paper, we investigate whether stochastic parameterizations can improve blocking representation. We find that blocking frequency representation slightly deteriorates, following a change in midlatitude winds. We conclude by suggesting a direction for future model development.
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, René Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3173–3205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought is a creeping phenomenon but is often still analysed and managed like an isolated event, without taking into account what happened before and after. Here, we review the literature and analyse five cases to discuss how droughts and their impacts develop over time. We find that the responses of hydrological, ecological, and social systems can be classified into four types and that the systems interact. We provide suggestions for further research and monitoring, modelling, and management.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Hu Yang, Roberta D'Agostino, Jiping Liu, Chaoyuan Yang, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 19, 2157–2175, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2157-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) marks the most recent extremely cold and dry time period of our planet. Using AWI-ESM, we quantify the relative importance of Earth's orbit, greenhouse gases (GHG) and ice sheets (IS) in determining the LGM climate. Our results suggest that both GHG and IS play important roles in shaping the LGM temperature. Continental ice sheets exert a major control on precipitation, atmospheric dynamics, and the intensity of El Niño–Southern Oscillation.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Carolin Krug, Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Endurance Igbinosa, Pascale Braconnot, Esther Brady, Jian Cao, Roberta D'Agostino, Johann Jungclaus, Xingxing Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Dmitry Sidorenko, Robert Tomas, Evgeny M. Volodin, Hu Yang, Qiong Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 18, 1047–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Since the orbital parameters of the past are different from today, applying the modern calendar to the past climate can lead to an artificial bias in seasonal cycles. With the use of multiple model outputs, we found that such a bias is non-ignorable and should be corrected to ensure an accurate comparison between modeled results and observational records, as well as between simulated past and modern climates, especially for the Last Interglacial.
Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Sandy P. Harrison, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, David J. R. Thornalley, Xiaoxu Shi, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Rumi Ohgaito, Darrell S. Kaufman, Masa Kageyama, Julia C. Hargreaves, Michael P. Erb, Julien Emile-Geay, Roberta D'Agostino, Deepak Chandan, Matthieu Carré, Partrick J. Bartlein, Weipeng Zheng, Zhongshi Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Hu Yang, Evgeny M. Volodin, Robert A. Tomas, Cody Routson, W. Richard Peltier, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Polina A. Morozova, Nicholas P. McKay, Gerrit Lohmann, Allegra N. Legrande, Chuncheng Guo, Jian Cao, Esther Brady, James D. Annan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides an initial exploration and comparison to climate reconstructions of the new climate model simulations of the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago). These use state-of-the-art models developed for CMIP6 and apply the same experimental set-up. The models capture several key aspects of the climate, but some persistent issues remain.
Josephine R. Brown, Chris M. Brierley, Soon-Il An, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Samantha Stevenson, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, Anni Zhao, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Deepak Chandan, Roberta D'Agostino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, Ryouta O'ishi, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Xiaoxu Shi, Louise Sime, Evgeny M. Volodin, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 16, 1777–1805, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest source of year-to-year variability in the current climate, but the response of ENSO to past or future changes in climate is uncertain. This study compares the strength and spatial pattern of ENSO in a set of climate model simulations in order to explore how ENSO changes in different climates, including past cold glacial climates and past climates with different seasonal cycles, as well as gradual and abrupt future warming cases.
Related subject area
Links between the atmospheric water cycle and weather systems
Dynamic and thermodynamic contribution to the October 2019 exceptional rainfall in western central Africa
Influence of mid-latitude sea surface temperature fronts on the atmospheric water cycle and storm track activity
A climatological characterisation of North Atlantic winter jet streaks and their extremes
Impact of precipitation mass sinks on midlatitude storms in idealized simulations across a wide range of climates
The monthly evolution of precipitation and warm conveyor belts during the central southwest Asia wet season
Exploring hail and lightning diagnostics over the Alpine-Adriatic region in a km-scale climate model
Model-simulated hydroclimate in the East Asian summer monsoon region during past and future climate: a pilot study with a moisture source perspective
Lagrangian formation pathways of moist anomalies in the trade-wind region during the dry season: two case studies from EUREC4A
A numerical study to investigate the roles of former Hurricane Leslie, orography and evaporative cooling in the 2018 Aude heavy-precipitation event
High-resolution stable isotope signature of a land-falling atmospheric river in southern Norway
Atmospheric convergence zones stemming from large-scale mixing
The role of air–sea fluxes for the water vapour isotope signals in the cold and warm sectors of extratropical cyclones over the Southern Ocean
Extreme wet seasons – their definition and relationship with synoptic-scale weather systems
Attribution of precipitation to cyclones and fronts over Europe in a kilometer-scale regional climate simulation
An attempt to explain recent changes in European snowfall extremes
Kevin Kenfack, Francesco Marra, Zéphirin Yepdo Djomou, Lucie Angennes Djiotang Tchotchou, Alain Tchio Tamoffo, and Derbetini Appolinaire Vondou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1457–1472, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The results of this study show that moisture advection induced by horizontal wind anomalies and vertical moisture advection induced by vertical velocity anomalies were crucial mechanisms behind the anomalous October 2019 exceptional rainfall increase over western central Africa. The information we derive can be used to support risk assessment and management in the region and to improve our resilience to ongoing climate change.
Fumiaki Ogawa and Thomas Spengler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1031–1042, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1031-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1031-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The exchange of energy and moisture between the atmosphere and ocean is maximised along strong meridional contrasts in sea surface temperature, such as across the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio. We find that these strong meridional contrasts confine and determine the position of evaporation and precipitation, as well as storm occurrence and intensity. The general intensity of the water cycle and storm activity, however, is determined by the underlying absolute sea surface temperature.
Mona Bukenberger, Lena Fasnacht, Stefan Rüdisühli, and Sebastian Schemm
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1789, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1789, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The jet stream is a band of strong westerly winds, within which jet streaks are regions of faster wind speeds that can aid storm development. This study analyze jet streaks over the North Atlantic during winter. Jet streaks are linked to pairs of surface anticyclones and cyclones and often accompanied by intense precipitation, especially for extreme jet streaks. With cloud processes playing an increased role for extreme jet streaks, follow-up studies concerning their role are warranted.
Tristan H. Abbott and Paul A. O'Gorman
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 17–41, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-17-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-17-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric models often neglect the mass sink from precipitation fallout, but a small number of modeling studies suggest that this mass sink may intensify storms. We provide evidence, using simulations and theory, that precipitation mass sinks have little systematic effect on storm intensity unless exaggerated by an order of magnitude. This result holds even in very warm climates with very heavy rainfall and helps to justify the neglect of precipitation mass sinks in atmospheric models.
Melissa Leah Breeden, Andrew Hoell, John Robert Albers, and Kimberly Slinski
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 963–980, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-963-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-963-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We compare the month-to-month evolution of daily precipitation over central southwest Asia (CSWA), a data-sparse, food-insecure area prone to drought and flooding. The seasonality of CSWA precipitation aligns with the seasonality of warm conveyor belts (WCBs), the warm, rapidly ascending airstreams associated with extratropical storms, most common from February–April. El Niño conditions are related to more WCBs and precipitation and La Niña conditions the opposite, except in January.
Ruoyi Cui, Nikolina Ban, Marie-Estelle Demory, Raffael Aellig, Oliver Fuhrer, Jonas Jucker, Xavier Lapillonne, and Christoph Schär
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 905–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-905-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-905-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Our study focuses on severe convective storms that occur over the Alpine-Adriatic region. By running simulations for eight real cases and evaluating them against available observations, we found our models did a good job of simulating total precipitation, hail, and lightning. Overall, this research identified important meteorological factors for hail and lightning, and the results indicate that both HAILCAST and LPI diagnostics are promising candidates for future climate research.
Astrid Fremme, Paul J. Hezel, Øyvind Seland, and Harald Sodemann
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 449–470, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-449-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-449-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We study the atmospheric moisture transport into eastern China for past, present, and future climate. Hence, we use different climate and weather prediction model data with a moisture source identification method. We find that while the moisture to first order originates mostly from similar regions, smaller changes consistently point to differences in the recycling of precipitation over land between different climates. Some differences are larger between models than between different climates.
Leonie Villiger, Heini Wernli, Maxi Boettcher, Martin Hagen, and Franziska Aemisegger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 59–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-59-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-59-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The coupling between the large-scale atmospheric circulation and the clouds in the trade-wind region is complex and not yet fully understood. In this study, the formation pathway of two anomalous cloud layers over Barbados during the field campaign EUREC4A is described. The two case studies highlight the influence of remote weather systems on the local environmental conditions in Barbados.
Marc Mandement and Olivier Caumont
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 795–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-795-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-795-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
On 14–15 October 2018, in the Aude department (France), a heavy-precipitation event produced up to about 300 mm of rain in 11 h. Simulations carried out show that the former Hurricane Leslie, while involved, was not the first supplier of moisture over the entire event. The location of the highest rainfall was primarily driven by the location of a quasi-stationary front and secondarily by the location of precipitation bands downwind of mountains bordering the Mediterranean Sea.
Yongbiao Weng, Aina Johannessen, and Harald Sodemann
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 713–737, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-713-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-713-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution measurements of stable isotopes in near-surface vapour and precipitation show a
W-shaped evolution during a 24 h land-falling atmospheric river event in southern Norway. We distinguish contributions from below-cloud processes, weather system characteristics, and moisture source conditions during different stages of the event. Rayleigh distillation models need to be expanded by additional processes to accurately predict isotopes in surface precipitation from stratiform clouds.
Gabriel M. P. Perez, Pier Luigi Vidale, Nicholas P. Klingaman, and Thomas C. M. Martin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 475–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-475-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-475-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Much of the rainfall in tropical regions comes from organised cloud bands called convergence zones (CZs). These bands have hundreds of kilometers. In South America (SA), they cause intense rain for long periods of time. To study these systems, we need to define and identify them with computer code. We propose a definition of CZs based on the the pathways of air, selecting regions where air masses originated in separated regions meet. This method identifies important mechanisms of rain in SA.
Iris Thurnherr, Katharina Hartmuth, Lukas Jansing, Josué Gehring, Maxi Boettcher, Irina Gorodetskaya, Martin Werner, Heini Wernli, and Franziska Aemisegger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 331–357, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-331-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-331-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Extratropical cyclones are important for the transport of moisture from low to high latitudes. In this study, we investigate how the isotopic composition of water vapour is affected by horizontal temperature advection associated with extratropical cyclones using measurements and modelling. It is shown that air–sea moisture fluxes induced by this horizontal temperature advection lead to the strong variability observed in the isotopic composition of water vapour in the marine boundary layer.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Matthias Röthlisberger, Maxi Boettcher, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 71–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-71-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-71-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we identify the wettest seasons globally and address their meteorological characteristics. We show that in different regions the wettest seasons occur in different times of the year and result from either unusually high frequencies of wet days and/or daily extremes. These high frequencies can be largely attributed to four specific weather systems, especially cyclones. Our analysis uses a thoroughly explained, novel methodology that could also be applied to climate models.
Stefan Rüdisühli, Michael Sprenger, David Leutwyler, Christoph Schär, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 675–699, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-675-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-675-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Most precipitation over Europe is linked to low-pressure systems, cold fronts, warm fronts, or high-pressure systems. Based on a massive computer simulation able to resolve thunderstorms, we quantify in detail how much precipitation these weather systems produced during 2000–2008. We find distinct seasonal and regional differences, such as fronts precipitating a lot in fall and winter over the North Atlantic but high-pressure systems mostly in summer over the continent by way of thunderstorms.
Davide Faranda
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 445–458, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-445-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-445-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the global temperature rise caused by anthropogenic emissions, we still observe heavy snowfalls that cause casualties, transport disruptions and energy supply problems. The goal of this paper is to investigate recent trends in snowfalls from reanalysis and observational datasets. The analysis shows an evident discrepancy between trends in average and extreme snowfalls. The latter can only be explained by looking at atmospheric circulation.
Cited articles
Allan, R. P., Barlow, M., Byrne, M. P., Cherchi, A., Douville, H., Fowler, H. J., Gan, T. Y., Pendergrass, A. G., Rosenfeld, D., Swann, A. L. S., Wilcox, L. J., and Zolina, O.: Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change, Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci., 1472, 49–75, https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14337, 2020. a
Broccoli, A. J. and Manabe, S.: The effects of orography on midlatitude northern hemisphere dry climates, J. Climate, 5, 1181–1201, 1992. a
Cherchi, A., Annamalai, H., Masina, S., and Navarra, A.: South Asian summer monsoon and the eastern Mediterranean climate: The monsoon-desert mechanism in CMIP5 simulations, J. Climate, 27, 6877–6903, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00530.1, 2014. a, b
Cherchi, A., Annamalai, H., Masina, S., Navarra, A., and Alessandri, A.: Twenty-first century projected summer mean climate in the Mediterranean interpreted through the monsoon-desert mechanism, Clim. Dynam., 47, 2361–2371, https://doi.org/10.1007/S00382-015-2968-4, 2016. a, b
D'Agostino, R., Scambiati, A. L., Jungclaus, J., and Lionello, P.: Poleward shift of northern subtropics in winter: Time of emergence of zonal versus regional signals, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL089325, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089325, 2020. a, b
Diniz, F. L. R. and Todling, R.: Assessing the impact of observations in a multi-year reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 724–747, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3705, 2020. a
Elbaum, E., Garfinkel, C. I., Adam, O., Morin, E., Rostkier-Edelstein, D., and Dayan, U.: Uncertainty in Projected Changes in Precipitation Minus Evaporation: Dominant Role of Dynamic Circulation Changes and Weak Role for Thermodynamic Changes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL097725, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL097725, 2022. a
Galanti, E., Raiter, D., Kaspi, Y., and Tziperman, E.: Spatial Patterns of the Tropical Meridional Circulation: Drivers and Teleconnections, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 127, e2021JD035531, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035531, 2022. a, b
Grise, K. M. and Davis, S. M.: Hadley cell expansion in CMIP6 models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 5249–5268, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5249-2020, 2020. a
Gutenstein, M., Fennig, K., Schröder, M., Trent, T., Bakan, S., Roberts, J. B., and Robertson, F. R.: Intercomparison of freshwater fluxes over ocean and investigations into water budget closure, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 121–146, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-121-2021, 2021. a
Held, I. M., Ting, M., and Wang, H.: Northern winter stationary waves: Theory and modeling, J. Climate, 15, 2125–2144, 2002. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Jean-Noël Thépaut: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, 2020. a, b, c
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5 monthly averaged data on pressure levels from 1940 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.6860a573, 2023. a
Kaspi, Y. and Schneider, T.: The role of stationary eddies in shaping midlatitude storm tracks, J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 2596–2613, 2013. a
Li, L., Li, W., and Barros, A. P.: Atmospheric moisture budget and its regulation of the summer precipitation variability over the Southeastern United States, Clim. Dynam., 41, 613–631, 2013. a
Li, Y., Li, X., Xie, S.-P., Zhang, G., Wang, Z., Wang, W., and Hou, Y.: Regional Perspective of Hadley Circulation and Its Uncertainties Among Different Datasets: Spread in Reanalysis Datasets, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 127, e2022JD036940, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036940, 2022. a, b
Lionello, P. and Scarascia, L.: The relation between climate change in the Mediterranean region and global warming, Reg. Environ. Change, 18, 1481–1493, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1290-1, 2018. a, b, c
Lu, J., Vecchi, G. A., and Reichler, T.: Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06805, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028443, 2007. a
Lucas, C., Timbal, B., and Nguyen, H.: The expanding tropics: a critical assessment of the observational and modeling studies, WIREs Climate Change, 5, 89–112, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.251, 2014. a
Mariotti, A., Struglia, M. V., Zeng, N., and Lau, K.-M.: The hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean region and implications for the water budget of the Mediterranean sea, J. Climate, 15, 1674–1690, 2002. a
Mayer, J., Mayer, M., and Haimberger, L.: Mass-consistent atmospheric energy and moisture budget monthly data from 1979 to present derived from ERA5 reanalysis. Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS), https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.c2451f6b, 2021b. a, b
Nguyen, H., Hendon, H. H., Lim, E.-P., Boschat, G., Maloney, E., and Timbal, B.: Variability of the extent of the Hadley circulation in the southern hemisphere: a regional perspective, Clim. Dynam., 50, 129–142, 2018. a
Raiter, D., Galanti, E., Chemke, R., and Kaspi, Y.: Linking Future Tropical Precipitation Changes to Zonally-Asymmetric Large-Scale Meridional Circulation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 51, e2023GL106072, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL106072, 2024. a
Scoccimarro, E., Lanteri, P., and Cavicchia, L.: Freddy: breaking record for tropical cyclone precipitation?, Environ. Res. Lett., 19, 064013, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad44b5, 2024. a
Seager, R., Ting, M., Held, I., Kushnir, Y., Lu, J., Vecchi, G., Huang, H.-P., Harnik, N., Leetmaa, A., Lau, N.-C., Li, C., Velez, J., and Naik, N.: Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America, Science, 316, 1181–1184, 2007. a
Simpson, I. R., Seager, R., Shaw, T. A., and Ting, M.: Mediterranean Summer Climate and the Importance of Middle East Topography, J. Climate, 28, 1977–1996, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00298.1, 2015. a, b, c, d
Staten, P. W., Lu, J., Grise, K. M., Davis, S. M., and Birner, T.: Re-examining tropical expansion, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 768–775, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0246-2, 2018. a
Trenberth, K. E., Smith, L., Qian, T., Dai, A., and Fasullo, J.: Estimates of the global water budget and its annual cycle using observational and model data, J. Hydrometeorol., 8, 758–769, 2007. a
Tuel, A., O'Gorman, P. A., and Eltahir, E. A.: Elements of the Dynamical Response to Climate Change over the Mediterranean, J. Climate, 34, 1135–1146, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0429.1, 2021. a
Ukhurebor, K. E., Adetunji, C. O., Olugbemi, O. T., Nwankwo, W., Olayinka, A. S., Umezuruike, C., and Hefft, D. I.: Precision agriculture: Weather forecasting for future farming, in: AI, Edge and IoT-based Smart Agriculture, Elsevier, 101–121, ISBN 9780128236949, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-823694-9.00008-6, 2022. a
Zappa, G., Hoskins, B. J., and Shepherd, T. G.: The dependence of wintertime Mediterranean precipitation on the atmospheric circulation response to climate change, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 104012, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104012, 2015. a
Zhang, G. and Wang, Z.: Interannual Variability of the Atlantic Hadley Circulation in Boreal Summer and Its Impacts on Tropical Cyclone Activity, J. Climate, 26, 8529–8544, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00802.1, 2013. a
Short summary
In this study, we explore the role of stationary circulations arising from deviations from the zonal mean in the distinct transition from net evaporation over the ocean to net precipitation over land in the Mediterranean region from ERA5. Stationary eddies reinforce the wetting tendency over land and oppose the drying tendency over the ocean due to transient storms. Our results have important implications for future changes in the region, previously identified as a climate change hot spot.
In this study, we explore the role of stationary circulations arising from deviations from the...