Articles | Volume 6, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-329-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Quantifying the spread in sudden stratospheric warming wave forcing in CMIP6
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- Final revised paper (published on 25 Mar 2025)
- Supplement to the final revised paper
- Preprint (discussion started on 16 Aug 2024)
- Supplement to the preprint
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
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- RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2554', Anonymous Referee #1, 23 Sep 2024
- RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2554', Anonymous Referee #2, 02 Dec 2024
- AC1: 'Author's reponse', Verónica Martínez Andradas, 21 Dec 2024
- AC2: 'Author's changes in manuscript', Verónica Martínez Andradas, 21 Dec 2024
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
AR by Verónica Martínez Andradas on behalf of the Authors (21 Dec 2024)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (30 Dec 2024) by Daniela Domeisen
RR by Alexey Karpechko (14 Jan 2025)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (17 Jan 2025)
EF by Vitaly Muravyev (02 Jan 2025)
Manuscript
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (21 Jan 2025) by Daniela Domeisen
AR by Verónica Martínez Andradas on behalf of the Authors (28 Jan 2025)
Manuscript
Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are one of the large uncertainties in climate modelling. Being sensitive to initial conditions, they show large spread between the models. Analysing the causes behind these differences in historical runs could lead us to better understanding of SSWs in future projections. It has been shown that SSWs are heavily connected to the wave forcing, both resolved as well as parameterised. Values of parameterised drag have large spread between the models, mostly due to the different parameterisations and various tuning. This in turn can affect the resolved waves, bringing another uncertainty to the models. For those reasons, wave forcing in models is very important topic of current research.
In this paper the authors analyse historical data from 2 reanalysis and 7 CMIP6 models. They compare both resolved (EPD) and parameterised wave (GWD) drag, taken over locations, which are relevant in the polar vortex during SSW development and in the aftermath. The analysis of resolved waves and residual circulation is done using the classical approach of transformed Eulerian mean (TEM) equations. The authors show how EPD and GWD correlate to changes in time of zonal mean zonal wind and to the advection by the residual circulation. The results nicely demonstrate how each of the wave forcings influences those two variables, differentiating between the stratosphere and mesosphere. The authors also present an inter-event analysis. The manuscript is well written and comprehensible, bringing valuable insight to SSWs in models, which can point us in the right direction for future research endeavours in this area. I recommend it for publishing with minor comments.
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References:
Charlton, A. J., and L. M. Polvani, 2007: A new look at stratospheric sudden warmings. Part I: Climatology and modeling benchmarks. J. Climate, 20, 449–469, doi:10.1175/JCLI3996.1.
Seviour, W. J. M., D. M. Mitchell, and L. J. Gray, 2013: A practical method to identify displaced and split stratospheric polar vortex events. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 5268–5273, doi:10.1002/grl.50927
Hall, R. J., Mitchell, D. M., Seviour, W. J., and Wright, C. J.: Persistent model biases in the CMIP6 representation of stratospheric polar vortex variability, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126, e2021JD034 759, 2021.