Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1385-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1385-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
Research article
 | 
05 Aug 2026
Research article |  | 05 Aug 2026

Austral summer MJO forecast skill in S2S models: decadal shifts and their drivers

Raina Roy, Julie M. Arblaster, Matthew C. Wheeler, Eun-Pa Lim, and Jadwiga H. Richter

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Short summary
A key pattern of tropical weather, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, has become significantly harder to predict since the late 1990s. We discovered this by comparing forecasts from major models across two time periods. The decrease in forecast skill is linked to changes in large-scale climate patterns, not just model errors. This means to improve long-range weather forecasts, models must better simulate how these large-scale patterns interact with tropical weather.
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