Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1779-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1779-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Meteorological drivers of extreme swells on the Peruvian coast
Gonzalo Agurto Barragán
División de Meteorología Marina, Departamento de Oceanografía, Dirección de Hidrografía y Navegación, Marina de Guerra del Perú, Callao, 07021, Perú
Departamento de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM), Madrid, 28040, Spain
Departamento de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM), Madrid, 28040, Spain
Instituto de Geociencias (IGEO), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas – Universidad Complutense de Madrid (CSIC–UCM), Madrid, 28040, Spain
Ricardo García-Herrera
Departamento de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM), Madrid, 28040, Spain
Instituto de Geociencias (IGEO), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas – Universidad Complutense de Madrid (CSIC–UCM), Madrid, 28040, Spain
Related authors
Gonzalo Agurto Barragán, Javier Aroba Páez, Isidoro Gutiérrez-Álvarez, and Enrique Gutiérrez de San Miguel Herrera
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4053, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4053, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Tornadoes and waterspouts are rare but damaging storms in Spain and the Balearic Islands. We built an updated record of these events from 1992 to 2025 and used weather data to group the region into three areas with different storm-forming conditions. We then estimated, for the first time, how likely damaging winds are in each area. Surprisingly, the area with the fewest tornadoes has the strongest ones, showing that where tornadoes happen most often is not where the worst winds are most likely.
Tahimy Fuentes-Alvarez, Carlos Ordóñez, Ricardo García-Herrera, David Barriopedro, and Jose Manuel Garrido-Perez
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3914, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3914, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the three largest surface ozone episodes in Europe during 2003–2022. By identifying days with similar atmospheric circulation patterns, we separate the effects of dynamical and non-dynamical processes. We provide further insights into the factors contributing to the severity of the episodes such as the availability of ozone precursors or biomass burning emissions. These findings improve our understanding of extreme ozone pollution in a changing climate.
Gonzalo Agurto Barragán, Javier Aroba Páez, Isidoro Gutiérrez-Álvarez, and Enrique Gutiérrez de San Miguel Herrera
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4053, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4053, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Tornadoes and waterspouts are rare but damaging storms in Spain and the Balearic Islands. We built an updated record of these events from 1992 to 2025 and used weather data to group the region into three areas with different storm-forming conditions. We then estimated, for the first time, how likely damaging winds are in each area. Surprisingly, the area with the fewest tornadoes has the strongest ones, showing that where tornadoes happen most often is not where the worst winds are most likely.
Juan Carlos Antuña-Marrero, Abel Calle, Juan Antonio Añel, Victoria Cachorro, Laura de la Torre, David Barriopedro, Ricardo García Herrera, and Javier Pacheco
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 4669–4676, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-4669-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-4669-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
New rescued searchlight stratospheric aerosol profiles (SSAEP) at 32° N extent the recovered SAP from late 1963 to 1964 to early 1963 to 1976. It covers 1963 Agung and 1974 Fuego volcanic eruptions and background conditions in between. Early 1963 perturbed SSAEP challenges currently assumed northern hemisphere arrival in second half of 1963. The extended dataset will contribute to advance our limited knowledge and understanding of the Agung stratospheric aerosol transport.
Solange Suli, David Barriopedro, Ricardo García-Herrera, Soledad Collazo, Antonello Squintu, and Matilde Rusticucci
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 149–164, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-149-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-149-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Heat extremes are becoming more frequent and intense in southern South America. This study uses a storyline approach to explore how different climate drivers shape future summer temperature extremes. Using climate model simulations, we identified key drivers, such as soil moisture, sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation, to build physically consistent scenarios that explain the sources of uncertainty in regional warming projections in southern South America.
Soledad Collazo, David Barriopedro, Ricardo García-Herrera, and Santiago Beguería
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3221–3238, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3221-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3221-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In 2023, Rio de Janeiro experienced record-breaking heat waves linked to climate change and El Niño. Our study shows that global warming made these extreme temperatures at least 2 °C hotter than in pre-industrial times. Heat-related deaths surged, with climate change contributing to one in three fatalities during the peak event. Without adaptation, future heat waves will claim even more lives. This underscores the urgent need for policies to mitigate climate impacts from escalating heat threats.
Cited articles
Abram, N., Mulvaney, R., Vimeux, F., Phipps, S. J., Turner, J., and England, M. H.: Evolution of the Southern Annular Mode during the past millennium, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 564–569, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2235, 2014
Alves, J. H. G. M.: Numerical modeling of ocean swell contributions to the global wind-wave climate, Ocean Model., 11, 98–122, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2004.11.007, 2006.
Ardhuin, F., Chapron, B., and Collard F.: Observation of swell dissipation across oceans, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L06607, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL037030, 2009.
Barber, N. F. and Ursell F.: The generation and propagation of ocean waves and swell. I. Wave periods and velocities, Philos. T. R. Soc. S. A, 240, 527–560, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.1948.0005, 1948.
Barnston, A. G. and Livezey, R. E.: Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns, Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 1083–1126, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1083:CSAPOL>2.0.CO;2, 1987.
Barriopedro, D., Ayarzagüena, B., García-Burgos, M., and García-Herrera, R.: A multi-parametric perspective of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet, Clim. Dynam., 61, 375–397, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06574-w, 2023.
Barriopedro, D., Jiménez-Esteve B., Collazo S., Garrido-Perez J. M., Johnson J. E., and García-Herrera. R.: A multi-method attribution analysis of the Spain's 2024 extreme precipitation event, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 106, E2440–E2460, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-25-0049.1, 2025.
Boucharel, J., Santiago, L., Almar, R., and Kestenare, E.: Coastal wave extremes around the Pacific and their remote seasonal connection to climate modes, Climate, 9, 168, https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9120168, 2021.
Bukenberger, M., Fasnacht, L., Rüdisühli, S., and Schemm, S.: A climatological characterization of North Atlantic winter jet streaks and their extremes, Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 279–316, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-279-2025, 2025.
Cai, W., Santoso, A., Collins, M., Dewitte, B., Karamperidou, C., Kug, J.-S., Lengaigne, M., McPhaden, M. J., Stuecker, M. F., Taschetto, A. S., Timmermann, A., Wu, L., Yeh, S.-W., Wang, G., Ng, B., Jia, F., Yang, Y., Ying, J., Zheng, X.-T., Bayr, T., Brown, J. R., Capotondi, A., Cobb, K. M., Gan, B., Geng, T., Ham, Y.-G., Jin, F.-F., Jo, H.-S., Li, X., Lin, X., McGregor, S., Park, J.-H., Stein, K., Yang, K., Zhang, L., and Zhong, W.: Changing El Niño–Southern Oscillation in a warming climate, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 2, 628–644, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-021-00199-z, 2021.
Campos-Caba, R. V.: Análisis de marejadas históricas y recientes en las costas de Chile, Memoria de Título para optar al Título de Ingeniero Civil Oceánico, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Valparaíso, Chile, 210 pp., https://oleaje.uv.cl/descargables/Memorias/Memoria%20UV%20Campos%20-%202016%20-%20An%C3%A1lisis%20de%20marejadas%20hist%C3%B3ricas%20y%20recientes%20en%20las%20costas%20de%20Chile.pdf (last access: 12 November 2025), 2016.
Cattiaux, J., Vautard, R., Cassou, C., You, P., Masson-Delmotte, V., and Codron, F.: Winter 2010 in Europe: A cold extreme in a warming climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044613, 2010.
Chen, D. and Sun, Q.: Northern Pacific extratropical cyclone variability and its linkage with Arctic sea ice changes, Clim. Dynam., 61, 5875–5885, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06889-2, 2023.
Collazo, S., García-Herrera, R., and Barriopedro, D.: Summer upper-level jets modulate the response of South American climate to ENSO, Clim. Dynam., 62, 1031–1054, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06955-9, 2024.
Deng, K., Azorin-Molina, C., Minola, L., Zhang, G., and Chen, D.: Global near-surface wind speed changes over the last decades revealed by reanalyses and CMIP6 model simulations, J. Climate, 34, 2219–2234, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0310.1, 2021.
Directorate of Hydrography and Navigation (DIHIDRONAV): Avisos especiales, https://www.dhn.mil.pe/portal/avisos-especiales (last access: 12 November 2025), 2025.
Dong, B. and Dai, A.: The influence of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on temperature and precipitation over the globe, Clim. Dynam., 45, 2667–2681, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2500-x, 2015.
Faranda, D., Messori, G., Coppola, E., Alberti, T., Vrac, M., Pons, F., Yiou, P., Saint Lu, M., Hisi, A. N. S., Brockmann, P., Dafis, S., Mengaldo, G., and Vautard, R.: ClimaMeter: contextualizing extreme weather in a changing climate, Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 959–983, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024, 2024.
Fogt, R. L. and Marshall, G. J.: The Southern Annular Mode: variability, trends, and climate impacts across the Southern Hemisphere, WIREs Clim. Change, 11, e652, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.652, 2020.
Gao, Y., Schmitt F. G., Hu, J., and Huang, Y.: Probability-based wind-wave relation, Front. Mar. Sci., 9, 1085340, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.1085340, 2023.
García-Burgos, M., Ayarzagüena, B., Barriopedro, D., and García-Herrera, R.: Jet configurations leading to extreme winter temperatures over Europe, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 128, e2023JD039304, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039304, 2023.
Hell, M. C., Ayet, A., and Chapron, B.: Swell generation under extra-tropical storms, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 126, e2021JC017637, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017637, 2021.
Henley, B. J.: Pacific decadal climate variability: indices, patterns and tropical–extratropical interactions, Global Planet. Change, 155, 42–55, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.06.004, 2017.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020.
Hsu, P.-C., Hsu, H.-H., Hong, H.-J., and Chen, Y.-T.: Subtropical warming enhances North Pacific midlatitude winter storm track activity in recent decades, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 8, 235, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01108-7, 2025.
Infobae: Oleaje anómalo llegará a su punto pico este fin de semana en la costa peruana, advierte la Marina de Guerra, https://www.infobae.com/peru/2023/05/27/oleaje-anomalo-llegara-a-su-punto-pico-este-fin-de-semana/ (last access: 12 November 2025), 2023 (in Spanish).
Jézéquel, A., Yiou, P., and Radanovics, S.: Role of circulation in European heatwaves using flow analogues, Clim. Dynam., 50, 1145–1159, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3667-0, 2018.
Jigena-Antelo, B., Alvarado-Espinoza, A., Adrianzén, R., Chauca-Hoyos, R., Estrada-Ludeña, C., Varea-Loayza, E., Molina, R., Contreras-de-Villar, A., Romero-Cózar, J., Contreras-de-Villar, F., and Muñoz-Perez, J. J.: Southern-latitude wind forcing as a predictor of swell energy and coastal wave power in Peru, Front. Mar. Sci., 13, 1779394, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2026.1779394, 2026.
King, J., Anchukaitis, K. J., Allen, K., Vance, T., and Hessl, A.: Trends and variability in the Southern Annular Mode over the Common Era, Nat. Commun., 14, 2324, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37643-1, 2023.
Lodise, J., Merrifield, S., Collins, C., Rogowski, P., Behrens, J., and Terrill, E.: Global climatology of extratropical cyclones from a new tracking approach and associated wave heights from satellite radar altimeter, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 127, e2022JC018925, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JC018925, 2022.
Ma, X. and Zhang, Y.: Interannual variability of the North Pacific winter storm track and its relationship with extratropical atmospheric circulation, Clim. Dynam., 51, 3685–3698, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4104-8, 2018.
Mann, H. B. and Whitney, D. R.: On a test of whether one of two random variables is stochastically larger than the other, Ann. Math. Statist., 18, 50–60, https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177730491, 1947.
Marshall, G. J.: Trends in the Southern Annular Mode from Observations and Reanalyses, J. Climate, 16, 4134–4143, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<4134:TITSAM>2.0.CO;2, 2003.
Priestley, M. D. K. and Catto, J. L.: Future changes in the extratropical storm tracks and cyclone intensity, wind speed, and structure, Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 337–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-337-2022, 2022.
Purich, A., Arblaster, J. M., Boschat, G., Gillett, Z. E., Hobbs, W., Jucker, M., Lim, E.-P., Udy, D., Abram, N., Campitelli, E., Doddridge, E., England, M. H., King, A., Menviel, L., Meyer, A., Ortiz Guzmán, V., Roy, R., Rudeva, I., Spence, P., Strutton, P. G., and Ziehn, T.: Southern Annular Mode dynamics, projections and impacts in a changing climate, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 7, 24–42, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-025-00746-y, 2026.
RPP Noticias: Fuerte oleaje golpea a caletas y desembarcaderos del litoral norte peruano, Radio Programas del Perú, https://rpp.pe/peru/actualidad/fuerte-oleaje-golpea-a-caletas-y-desembarcaderos-del-litoral-norte-peruano-video-noticia-1606850 (last access: 12 November 2025), 2024 (in Spanish).
Schultz, D. M., Keyser D., and Bosart L. F.: The effect of large-scale flow on low-level frontal structure and evolution in midlatitude cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 126, 1767–1791, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<1767:TEOLSF>2.0.CO;2, 1998.
Semedo, A., Sušelj, K., Rutgersson, A., and Sterl, A.: A Global View on the Wind Sea and Swell Climate and Variability from ERA-40, J. Climate, 24, 1461–1479, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3718.1, 2011.
Seneviratne, S. I., Zhang, X., Adnan, M., Badi, W., Dereczynski, C., Di Luca, A., Ghosh, S., Iskandar, I., Kossin, J., Lewis, S., Otto, F., Pinto, I., Satoh, M., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Wehner, M., and Zhou, B.: Weather and climate extreme events in a changing climate, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1513–1766, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.013, 2021.
Stewart, R. H.: Introduction to Physical Oceanography, Chapter 16: Ocean Waves, Open textbook, Texas A&M Univ., https://www.uv.es/hegigui/Kasper/por%20Robert%20H%20Stewart.pdf (last access: May 2026), 2008.
Tamayo Infantes, M.: Oleaje anómalo de fuerte intensidad en la bahía de Miraflores, Bitácora Hidrográfica, 3, 13–16, Dirección de Hidrografía y Navegación de la Marina de Guerra del Perú, Lima, Peru, https://www.dhn.mil.pe/Archivos/bitacora/edc_03.pdf (last access: 12 November 2025), 2007.
Thompson, V., Philip, S., Kew, S., Pinto, I., and Vautard, R.: Using analogue methods to identify trends in circulation patterns of midlatitude heatwaves, Weather and Climate Extremes, 52, 100898, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2026.100898, 2026.
Virtanen, P., Gommers R., Oliphant T. E., Haberland M., Reddy T., Cournapeau D., Burovski E., Peterson P., Weckesser W., Bright J., van der Walt, S. J., Brett, M., Wilson, J., Millman, K. J., Mayorov, N., Nelson, A. R. J., Jones, E., Kern, R., Larson, E., Carey, C. J., Polat, İ., Feng, Y., Moore, E. W., VanderPlas, J., Laxalde, D., Perktold, J., Cimrman, R., Henriksen, I., Quintero, E. A., Harris, C. R., Archibald, A. M., Ribeiro, A. H., Pedregosa, F., van Mulbregt, P., and SciPy 1.0 Contributors: SciPy 1.0: Fundamental algorithms for scientific computing in Python, Nat. Methods, 17, 261–272, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41592-019-0686-2, 2020.
Wallace, J. M. and Gutzler, D. S.: Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter, Mon. Weather Rev., 109, 784–812, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<0784:TITGHF>2.0.CO;2, 1981.
Wang, X. and Yang, X.-Q.: Amplified asymmetric impact of ENSO events on the wintertime Pacific–North American teleconnection pattern, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2022GL100996, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100996, 2023.
Wills, R. C. J., Battisti, D. S., Proistosescu, C., Thompson, L., Hartmann, D. L., and Armour, K.: Ocean circulation signatures of North Pacific decadal variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 1690–1701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080716, 2019.
Xu, G., Broadman, E., Dorado-Liñán, I., Klippel, L., Meko, M., Büntgen, U., De Mil, T., Esper, J., Gunnarson, B., Hartl, C., Krusic, P. J., Linderholm, H. W., Ljungqvist, F. C., Ludlow, F., Panayotov, M., Seim, A., Wilson, R., Zamora-Reyes, D., and Trouet, V.: Jet stream controls on European climate and agriculture since 1300 CE, Nature, 634, 600–608, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07985-x, 2024.
Yiou, P., Jézéquel, A., Naveau, P., Otto, F. E. L., Vautard, R., and Vrac, M.: A statistical framework for conditional extreme event attribution, Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 3, 17–31, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-17-2017, 2017.
Short summary
Large swells can travel thousands of kilometers and impact the Peruvian coast. Using Peruvian Navy warnings and ERA5 reanalysis, we compared extreme swells from the Southern and Northern Hemispheres. In both cases, a deep Pacific storm aligned with a strengthened jet stream sustained strong winds over swell-generation regions, directing wave energy toward Peru. Southern Hemisphere events reach higher intensity, and show a recent wind strengthening, unlike the North Pacific.
Large swells can travel thousands of kilometers and impact the Peruvian coast. Using Peruvian...