Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 7, issue 4
Articles | Volume 7, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-2065-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-2065-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 7, issue 4
Research article
 | 
20 Oct 2026
Research article |  | 20 Oct 2026

Grid-spacing sensitivity of Rossby wave breaking to mesoscale diabatic processes

Marius Rixen, Praveen K. Pothapakula, Michael Sprenger, Christian Zeman, and Andreas F. Prein

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Short summary
Despite steady improvements in forecasting skill, episodes of low forecast skill, called forecast busts, still persist. Using global ensemble simulations at different grid spacings, we show that coarse-grid simulations fail to resolve key mesoscale diabatic processes, and that errors upscale and propagate downstream, leading to large forecast errors. Fine grid spacing simulations better capture scale interactions in strongly diabatic flow, highlighting the potential of kilometer-scale models.
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