Articles | Volume 7, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-695-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-695-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
29 Apr 2026
Research article |
| 29 Apr 2026
| 29 Apr 2026
Sea-effect snowfall in the Baltic Sea area in 1998–2018 derived from convection-permitting climate model data
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Taru Olsson
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Petter Lind
Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
Kirsti Jylhä
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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Possible future changes in atmospheric conditions favourable for thunderstorms in Fennoscandia are investigated using HCLIM climate model data at 3 km spatial resolution. The frequency of thunderstorm- and severe-thunderstorm-favourable days is projected to increase across Fennoscandia under medium- and high-emission scenarios. The findings improve understanding of future thunderstorm hazards and support climate adaptation in Fennoscandia, where such information is currently limited.
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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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Possible future changes in atmospheric conditions favourable for thunderstorms in Fennoscandia are investigated using HCLIM climate model data at 3 km spatial resolution. The frequency of thunderstorm- and severe-thunderstorm-favourable days is projected to increase across Fennoscandia under medium- and high-emission scenarios. The findings improve understanding of future thunderstorm hazards and support climate adaptation in Fennoscandia, where such information is currently limited.
Taru Olsson, Terhi Laurila, Ari Aaltonen, and Kirsti Jylhä
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2363, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2363, 2026
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Strong winds coinciding with heavy snowfall can damage infrastructure, disrupt daily life and threaten safety. We examined how often these events occur in Finland and how long-lasting and severe they are, using reanalysis data. Such events were most common in coastal and eastern areas and usually short, while long and intense cases were rare. These events can challenge energy supply and essential services, highlighting the need to consider combined weather hazards in societal risk planning.
Danijel Belušić and Petter Lind
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 863–877, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-863-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-863-2025, 2025
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Kilometer (km)-scale climate models have large added value for modeling precipitation, but their benefits for winds are less studied. We show that the km-scale model better reproduces strong winds in complex terrain, which are up to twice as strong as in a coarser model, and can capture downslope glacier winds in higher terrain. Future changes in mean and strong winds are governed by the large-scale circulation change, whereas for weak winds, they are governed by the temperature change, which is less uncertain.
Natalia Korhonen, Otto Hyvärinen, Virpi Kollanus, Timo Lanki, Juha Jokisalo, Risto Kosonen, David S. Richardson, and Kirsti Jylhä
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1865–1879, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1865-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1865-2025, 2025
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The skill of hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in forecasting heat wave days, defined as periods with the 5 d moving average temperature exceeding its local summer 90th percentile over Europe 1 to 4 weeks ahead, is examined. Forecasts of heat wave days show potential for warning of heat risk 1 to 2 weeks in advance and enhanced accuracy in forecasting prolonged heat waves up to 3 weeks ahead, when the heat wave had already begun before forecast issuance.
Fredrik Lagergren, Robert G. Björk, Camilla Andersson, Danijel Belušić, Mats P. Björkman, Erik Kjellström, Petter Lind, David Lindstedt, Tinja Olenius, Håkan Pleijel, Gunhild Rosqvist, and Paul A. Miller
Biogeosciences, 21, 1093–1116, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1093-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1093-2024, 2024
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The Fennoscandian boreal and mountain regions harbour a wide range of ecosystems sensitive to climate change. A new, highly resolved high-emission climate scenario enabled modelling of the vegetation development in this region at high resolution for the 21st century. The results show dramatic south to north and low- to high-altitude shifts of vegetation zones, especially for the open tundra environments, which will have large implications for nature conservation, reindeer husbandry and forestry.
Erika Médus, Emma D. Thomassen, Danijel Belušić, Petter Lind, Peter Berg, Jens H. Christensen, Ole B. Christensen, Andreas Dobler, Erik Kjellström, Jonas Olsson, and Wei Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 693–711, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022, 2022
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We evaluate the skill of a regional climate model, HARMONIE-Climate, to capture the present-day characteristics of heavy precipitation in the Nordic region and investigate the added value provided by a convection-permitting model version. The higher model resolution improves the representation of hourly heavy- and extreme-precipitation events and their diurnal cycle. The results indicate the benefits of convection-permitting models for constructing climate change projections over the region.
Anna Rutgersson, Erik Kjellström, Jari Haapala, Martin Stendel, Irina Danilovich, Martin Drews, Kirsti Jylhä, Pentti Kujala, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Kirsten Halsnæs, Ilari Lehtonen, Anna Luomaranta, Erik Nilsson, Taru Olsson, Jani Särkkä, Laura Tuomi, and Norbert Wasmund
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 251–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-251-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-251-2022, 2022
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A natural hazard is a naturally occurring extreme event with a negative effect on people, society, or the environment; major events in the study area include wind storms, extreme waves, high and low sea level, ice ridging, heavy precipitation, sea-effect snowfall, river floods, heat waves, ice seasons, and drought. In the future, an increase in sea level, extreme precipitation, heat waves, and phytoplankton blooms is expected, and a decrease in cold spells and severe ice winters is anticipated.
Mika Rantanen, Kirsti Jylhä, Jani Särkkä, Jani Räihä, and Ulpu Leijala
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-314, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-314, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
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Using sea level and precipitation observations, we analysed the meteorological characteristics of days when heavy precipitation and high sea level occur simultaneously in Finland. We found that around 5 % of all heavy precipitation and high sea level events on the Finnish coast are so called compound events when they both occur simultaneously, and these events were associated with close passages of mid-latitude cyclones. Our results act as a basis for compound flooding research in Finland.
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Short summary
We use a kilometer-scale regional climate model to investigate the occurrence and intensity of sea-effect snowfall in the Baltic Sea region during 1998–2018. Sea-effect snowbands occur most frequently from November to February and when low-level winds have an easterly component near the eastern coast of Sweden and the southern coast of Finland. Over the southern Baltic Sea, snowbands tend to occur under northerly low-level winds and are most common from December to March.
We use a kilometer-scale regional climate model to investigate the occurrence and intensity of...
