This study documents the dynamics behind the first occurrence of a multi-year negative Indian Ocean Dipole since the 1960s, which lasted for an unprecedented 19 months, and co-occurred with the triple-dip La Niña event of 2020–2022. The co-occurrence of such extremes is rare and can exacerbate the associated climate risk. We find that Indian Ocean conditions limited the impact of La Niña on the Indian Summer Monsoon, preventing excessive monsoonal rainfall.

Atmospheric deserts are air masses from the boundary layer of desert regions. This study tracked them from North Africa to Europe during a two-year period (May 2022–April 2024). They can occur up to 60 % of the time, and can span large parts of Europe. They typically last about a day, and can alter the atmosphere throughout the free troposphere. On its way from Africa the air either rises and may become even warmer and drier, or it stays at mid-altitudes and cools, or retains its properties.

Hurricane Ophelia of October 2017 is a rare example of a strong post-tropical cyclone impacting Europe, an event that is expected to occur more frequently as our climate warms. This study examines the changes in structure, behaviour, and extratropical transition of Hurricane Ophelia under alternate climate forcing using a regional model. We find that in warmer climates the storm becomes stronger, larger, and maintains the characteristics of a tropical cyclone for longer than in cooler climates.

Storm Boris led to record-breaking precipitation over central Europe in September 2024. By incorporating event-specific meteorological information, this work introduces a methodology to strengthen our comprehension of how global warming affects similar hazards. Furthermore, it contextualizes how the answer to the question "How will Boris-like storms change in a warmer climate?" depends on explicit and implicit methodological choices, with the aim to inform future attribution research.

Due to changes in atmospheric circulation some regions are warming quicker than others. Statistical methods are used to estimate how much of the local summer temperature changes are due to circulation changes. We evaluate these methods by comparing their estimates to special simulations representing only temperature changes related to circulation changes. By applying the methods to observations of 1979–2023 we find that half of the warming over parts of Europe is related to circulation changes.

By studying the variability of the trade winds during the Great Barrier Reef coral bleaching season, we show that ocean heating and a higher risk of coral bleaching are linked to the breakdown of the trade winds into either calm and clear conditions or a monsoon-like northerly flow. Years with mass coral bleaching are also associated with more "calm and clear" days in the warmest months and fewer strong trade wind days on the fringe months of the bleaching season.

This study presents three case studies of applying a newly developed method to quantify the uncertainty of the operational ensemble from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in forecasting precipitation and wind extremes associated with Mediterranean cyclones. We find that the cyclones as well as their associated extremes are predicted well for lead times ≤ 48 h; however, for longer lead times there is large case-to-case variability in the ensemble performance.

Heat extremes are becoming more frequent and intense in southern South America. This study uses a storyline approach to explore how different climate drivers shape future summer temperature extremes. Using climate model simulations, we identified key drivers, such as soil moisture, sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation, to build physically consistent scenarios that explain the sources of uncertainty in regional warming projections in southern South America.

The Wind Velocity Radar Nephoscope (WIVERN) mission will be the first space-based mission to provide global in-cloud wind, cloud and precipitation measurements. The mission is proposed as a candidate for the ESA Earth Explorer 11. Its data could be beneficial to several sectors, including numerical weather prediction performance enhancement. This paper aims to contribute to the last point by analyzing the impact that WIVERN would have in the case of a Tropical-like cyclone event.

The need for information about climate change is ever increasing. Therefore, it is important to have knowledge about climate change, along with an understanding of the uncertainties of climate model ensembles. Here, climate change in Sweden and neighbouring countries and its relation to global warming is described. Global warming results in higher temperature, more warm days and fewer cold days. The local and global warming suggest that climate change in Sweden may currently be at its fastest.

This study investigates the relationship between jet strength and storm track activity in the North Pacific and North Atlantic with a new approach that does not rely on monthly averaging. We find a consistent behaviour in the two basins, with two distinct relationships on seasonal and sub-monthly timescales emerging. This work underlines the importance of separating different timescales of variability to understand the interplay of jet characteristics and storm track activity.

We investigate the link between European meteorological droughts and persistent year-round weather regimes derived from mid-tropospheric circulation. Using a novel regionalization based on drought synchronicity and reanalysis data, we show that regime frequency anomalies partly explain drought occurrence, especially in western Europe and in winter, highlighting both the potential and limits of regime-based drought prediction.