Articles | Volume 1, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-313-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-313-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Robust predictors for seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity identified with causal effect networks
Peter Pfleiderer
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany
IRI THESys, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany
IRI THESys, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Tobias Geiger
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
German Meteorological Service, Climate and Environment Consultancy,
Stahnsdorf, Germany
Marlene Kretschmer
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
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Cited
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Summer Greenland Blocking in reanalysis and in SEAS5.1 seasonal forecasts: robust trend or natural variability? J. Beckmann et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1875-2025
- Network-based forecasting of climate phenomena J. Ludescher et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1922872118
- Validation of boreal summer tropical–extratropical causal links in seasonal forecasts G. Di Capua et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-701-2023
- Identifying robust precursor regions of driving parameters affecting the Accumulated Cyclone Energy in the North Indian Ocean using the Causal Effect Network A. Sagar et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rines.2025.100078
- Dynamic Bayesian Networks for Evaluation of Granger Causal Relationships in Climate Reanalyses D. Harries & T. O'Kane https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002442
- Causal mechanisms of subpolar gyre variability in CMIP6 models S. Falkena et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1833-2025
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- Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting Y. Takaya et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.09.003
- Increasing heat and rainfall extremes now far outside the historical climate A. Robinson et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00202-w
- Quantifying causal teleconnections to drought and fire risks in Indonesian Borneo T. Lam et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8442
- Tropical and mid-latitude causal drivers of the eastern Mediterranean Etesians during boreal summer G. Di Capua et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07411-y
- Study of accumulated cyclone energy and associated drivers affecting tropical cyclone activities over the North Indian Ocean during the pre- and post monsoon season A. Sagar et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-025-07393-y
- Atlantic–Pacific winter warming as an early indicator of major hurricane activity over the North Atlantic B. Latos et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.5048
- Historical changes in the Causal Effect Networks of compound hot and dry extremes in central Europe Y. Tian et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01934-2
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Summer Greenland Blocking in reanalysis and in SEAS5.1 seasonal forecasts: robust trend or natural variability? J. Beckmann et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1875-2025
- Network-based forecasting of climate phenomena J. Ludescher et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1922872118
- Validation of boreal summer tropical–extratropical causal links in seasonal forecasts G. Di Capua et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-701-2023
- Identifying robust precursor regions of driving parameters affecting the Accumulated Cyclone Energy in the North Indian Ocean using the Causal Effect Network A. Sagar et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rines.2025.100078
- Dynamic Bayesian Networks for Evaluation of Granger Causal Relationships in Climate Reanalyses D. Harries & T. O'Kane https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002442
- Causal mechanisms of subpolar gyre variability in CMIP6 models S. Falkena et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1833-2025
- A comparison of two causal methods in the context of climate analyses D. Docquier et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-115-2024
- Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting Y. Takaya et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.09.003
- Increasing heat and rainfall extremes now far outside the historical climate A. Robinson et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00202-w
- Quantifying causal teleconnections to drought and fire risks in Indonesian Borneo T. Lam et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8442
- Tropical and mid-latitude causal drivers of the eastern Mediterranean Etesians during boreal summer G. Di Capua et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07411-y
- Study of accumulated cyclone energy and associated drivers affecting tropical cyclone activities over the North Indian Ocean during the pre- and post monsoon season A. Sagar et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-025-07393-y
- Atlantic–Pacific winter warming as an early indicator of major hurricane activity over the North Atlantic B. Latos et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.5048
- Historical changes in the Causal Effect Networks of compound hot and dry extremes in central Europe Y. Tian et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01934-2
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 05 Jun 2026
Short summary
Seasonal outlooks of Atlantic hurricane activity are required to enable risk reduction measures and disaster preparedness. Many seasonal forecasts are based on a selection of climate signals from which a statistical model is constructed. The crucial step in this approach is to select the most relevant predictors without overfitting. Here we show that causal effect networks can be used to identify the most robust predictors. Based on these predictors we construct a competitive forecast model.
Seasonal outlooks of Atlantic hurricane activity are required to enable risk reduction measures...