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Weather and Climate Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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WCD | Articles | Volume 1, issue 2
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 313–324, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-313-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 313–324, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-313-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 13 Jul 2020

Research article | 13 Jul 2020

Robust predictors for seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity identified with causal effect networks

Peter Pfleiderer et al.

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Cited articles

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CCRIF: The Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility, available at: https://www.ccrif.org, last access: 28 May 2020. 
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Short summary
Seasonal outlooks of Atlantic hurricane activity are required to enable risk reduction measures and disaster preparedness. Many seasonal forecasts are based on a selection of climate signals from which a statistical model is constructed. The crucial step in this approach is to select the most relevant predictors without overfitting. Here we show that causal effect networks can be used to identify the most robust predictors. Based on these predictors we construct a competitive forecast model.
Seasonal outlooks of Atlantic hurricane activity are required to enable risk reduction measures...
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