Articles | Volume 1, issue 2
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 313–324, 2020
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 313–324, 2020
Research article
13 Jul 2020
Research article | 13 Jul 2020

Robust predictors for seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity identified with causal effect networks

Peter Pfleiderer et al.

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Cited articles

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Camargo, S. J. and Hsiang, S. M.: Tropical Cyclones: From the Influence of Climate to their Socio-Economic Impacts, Extrem. Events Obs. Model. Econ., 73, 303–342,, 2014. 
Caron, L.-P., Boudreault, M., and Bruyère, C. L.: Changes in large-scale controls of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity with the phases of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, Clim. Dynam., 44, 1801–1821,, 2015. 
CCRIF: The Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility, available at:, last access: 28 May 2020. 
Short summary
Seasonal outlooks of Atlantic hurricane activity are required to enable risk reduction measures and disaster preparedness. Many seasonal forecasts are based on a selection of climate signals from which a statistical model is constructed. The crucial step in this approach is to select the most relevant predictors without overfitting. Here we show that causal effect networks can be used to identify the most robust predictors. Based on these predictors we construct a competitive forecast model.