Subtle influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning  Circulation (AMOC) on seasonal sea surface temperature  (SST) hindcast skill in the North Atlantic

Carvalho-Oliveira, Julianna; Borchert, Leonard Friedrich; Duchez, Aurélie; Dobrynin, Mikhail; Baehr, Johanna

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-739-2021

Articles | Volume 2, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-739-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-739-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 2, issue 3

Research article

|

06 Aug 2021

Research article |

| 06 Aug 2021

Subtle influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) hindcast skill in the North Atlantic

Julianna Carvalho-Oliveira, Leonard Friedrich Borchert, Aurélie Duchez, Mikhail Dobrynin, and Johanna Baehr

Data sets

MPI-ESM-MR-30: Seasonal hindcasts with MPI-ESM1.0-MR M. Dobrynin, W. A. Müller, S. Brune, F. Bunzel, A. Düsterhus, K. Fröhlich, H. Pohlmann, and J. Baehr http://cera-www.dkrz.de/WDCC/ui/Compact.jsp?acronym=DKRZ_LTA_1075_ds00005

Model code and software

NCAR/ncl NCAR https://github.com/NCAR/ncl

Video supplement

AMOC-EKM fingerprints in MPI-ESM-MR during 1979-2014 (3-month lag) J. Carvalho-Oliveira https://doi.org/10.5446/50922

Short summary

This work questions the influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, an important component of the climate system, on the variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) a season ahead, particularly how this influence affects SST prediction credibility 2–4 months into the future. While we find this relationship is relevant for assessing SST predictions, it strongly depends on the time period and season we analyse and is more subtle than what is found in observations.