Articles | Volume 2, issue 3
Research article
06 Aug 2021
Research article |  | 06 Aug 2021

Subtle influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) hindcast skill in the North Atlantic

Julianna Carvalho-Oliveira, Leonard Friedrich Borchert, Aurélie Duchez, Mikhail Dobrynin, and Johanna Baehr

Data sets

MPI-ESM-MR-30: Seasonal hindcasts with MPI-ESM1.0-MR M. Dobrynin, W. A. Müller, S. Brune, F. Bunzel, A. Düsterhus, K. Fröhlich, H. Pohlmann, and J. Baehr

Model code and software


Video supplement

AMOC-EKM fingerprints in MPI-ESM-MR during 1979-2014 (3-month lag) J. Carvalho-Oliveira

Short summary
This work questions the influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, an important component of the climate system, on the variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) a season ahead, particularly how this influence affects SST prediction credibility 2–4 months into the future. While we find this relationship is relevant for assessing SST predictions, it strongly depends on the time period and season we analyse and is more subtle than what is found in observations.