Articles | Volume 2, issue 3
Research article
06 Aug 2021
Research article |  | 06 Aug 2021

Subtle influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) hindcast skill in the North Atlantic

Julianna Carvalho-Oliveira, Leonard Friedrich Borchert, Aurélie Duchez, Mikhail Dobrynin, and Johanna Baehr

Related authors

Causal associations and predictability of the summer East Atlantic teleconnection
Julianna Carvalho-Oliveira, Giorgia di Capua, Leonard Borchert, Reik Donner, and Johanna Baehr
EGUsphere,,, 2023
Short summary

Related subject area

Dynamical processes in the tropics, incl. tropical–extratropical interactions
Strengthening gradients in the tropical west Pacific connect to European summer temperatures on sub-seasonal timescales
Chiem van Straaten, Dim Coumou, Kirien Whan, Bart van den Hurk, and Maurice Schmeits
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 887–903,,, 2023
Short summary
Classification of large-scale environments that drive the formation of mesoscale convective systems over southern West Africa
Francis Nkrumah, Cornelia Klein, Kwesi Akumenyi Quagraine, Rebecca Berkoh-Oforiwaa, Nana Ama Browne Klutse, Patrick Essien, Gandomè Mayeul Leger Davy Quenum, and Hubert Azoda Koffi
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 773–788,,, 2023
Short summary
Validation of boreal summer tropical–extratropical causal links in seasonal forecasts
Giorgia Di Capua, Dim Coumou, Bart van den Hurk, Antje Weisheimer, Andrew G. Turner, and Reik V. Donner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 701–723,,, 2023
Short summary
Large uncertainty in observed estimates of tropical width from the meridional stream function
Daniel Baldassare, Thomas Reichler, Piret Plink-Björklund, and Jacob Slawson
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 531–541,,, 2023
Short summary
Examining the dynamics of a Borneo vortex using a balance approximation tool
Sam Hardy, John Methven, Juliane Schwendike, Ben Harvey, and Mike Cullen
EGUsphere,,, 2023
Short summary

Cited articles

Alessandri, A., Borrelli, A., Masina, S., Cherchi, A., Gualdi, S., Navarra, A., Di Pietro, P., and Carril, A. F.: The INGV–CMCC seasonal prediction system: improved ocean initial conditions, Mon. Weather Rev., 138, 2930–2952, 2010. a
Alexander-Turner, R., Ortega, P., and Robson, J.: How Robust Are the Surface Temperature Fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Meridional Circulation on Monthly Time Scales?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 3559–3567, 2018. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Arora, K. and Dash, P.: Towards dependence of tropical cyclone intensity on sea surface temperature and its response in a warming world, Climate, 4, 30,, 2016. a, b
Ba, J., Keenlyside, N. S., Latif, M., Park, W., Ding, H., Lohmann, K., Mignot, J., Menary, M., Otterå, O. H., Wouters, B., Salas y Melia, D., Oka, A., Bellucci, A., and Volodin, E.: A multi-model comparison of Atlantic multidecadal variability, Clim. Dynam., 43, 2333,, 2014. a
Short summary
This work questions the influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, an important component of the climate system, on the variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) a season ahead, particularly how this influence affects SST prediction credibility 2–4 months into the future. While we find this relationship is relevant for assessing SST predictions, it strongly depends on the time period and season we analyse and is more subtle than what is found in observations.