Emergence of representative signals for sudden stratospheric warmings beyond current predictable lead times

Wu, Zheng; Jiménez-Esteve, Bernat; de Fondeville, Raphaël; Székely, Enikő; Obozinski, Guillaume; Ball, William T.; Domeisen, Daniela I. V.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-841-2021

Articles | Volume 2, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-841-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-841-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 2, issue 3

Research article

|

07 Sep 2021

Research article |

| 07 Sep 2021

Emergence of representative signals for sudden stratospheric warmings beyond current predictable lead times

Zheng Wu, Bernat Jiménez-Esteve, Raphaël de Fondeville, Enikő Székely, Guillaume Obozinski, William T. Ball, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen

Model code and software

Isca, v1.0: A framework for the global modelling of the atmospheres of Earth and other planets at varying levels of complexity (https://github.com/ ExeClim/Isca) G. K. Vallis, G. Colyer, R. Geen, E. Gerber, M. Jucker, P. Maher, A. Paterson, M. Pietschnig, J. Penn, and S. I. Thomson https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-843-2018

Short summary

We use an advanced statistical approach to investigate the dynamics of the development of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events in the winter Northern Hemisphere. We identify distinct signals that are representative of these events and their event type at lead times beyond currently predictable lead times. The results can be viewed as a promising step towards improving the predictability of SSWs in the future by using more advanced statistical methods in operational forecasting systems.