Articles | Volume 3, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Apr 2022
Research article |
| 05 Apr 2022
| 05 Apr 2022
Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 1: Cyclone intensity, potential vorticity anomalies, and horizontal wind speed
Edgar Dolores-Tesillos
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Franziska Teubler
Institute for Atmospheric Physics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, Mainz, Germany
Stephan Pfahl
Institute of Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
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Cited
22 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The relationship between extra-tropical cyclone intensity and precipitation in idealised current and future climates V. Sinclair & J. Catto 10.5194/wcd-4-567-2023
- Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 2: A Lagrangian analysis E. Dolores-Tesillos & S. Pfahl 10.5194/wcd-5-163-2024
- Future Projections of EURO‐CORDEX Raw and Bias‐Corrected Daily Maximum Wind Speeds Over Scandinavia C. Michel & A. Sorteberg 10.1029/2022JD037953
- Warm conveyor belts in present-day and future climate simulations – Part 2: Role of potential vorticity production for cyclone intensification H. Binder et al. 10.5194/wcd-4-19-2023
- Response of moist and dry processes in atmospheric blocking to climate change D. Steinfeld et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac81af
- Frequency anomalies and characteristics of extratropical cyclones during extremely wet, dry, windy, and calm seasons in the extratropics H. Binder & H. Wernli 10.5194/wcd-6-151-2025
- Projected increase in windstorm severity and contribution from sting jets over the UK and Ireland C. Manning et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100562
- Assessing the impact of global warming on windstorms in the northeastern United States using the pseudo-global-warming method J. Sethunadh et al. 10.1007/s11069-023-05968-1
- CMIP6 projected trend of winter and summer variation in Arctic cyclones over the 21st century J. Song et al. 10.1007/s00382-024-07531-5
- Development shifts on the emerging Järve coast (Estonia) in Late Holocene K. Luik et al. 10.1016/j.margeo.2025.107478
- The Effect of Arctic Sea‐Ice Loss on Extratropical Cyclones S. Hay et al. 10.1029/2023GL102840
- Warm conveyor belts in present-day and future climate simulations – Part 1: Climatology and impacts H. Joos et al. 10.5194/wcd-4-133-2023
- Projected changes in extreme daily precipitation linked to changes in precipitable water and vertical velocity in CMIP6 models L. Gimeno-Sotelo et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107413
- The importance of diabatic processes for the dynamics of synoptic-scale extratropical weather systems – a review H. Wernli & S. Gray 10.5194/wcd-5-1299-2024
- Case beyond historical severity: Winds, faults, outages, and costs for electric grid J. Jasiūnas et al. 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123884
- Large-scale perspective on extreme near-surface winds in the central North Atlantic A. Stanković et al. 10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024
- Classification of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones using multiple measures of intensity J. Cornér et al. 10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025
- Projections of standardised energy indices in future climate scenarios E. Dolores-Tesillos et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad9b3f
- Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and potential future risks M. Priestley et al. 10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023
- Projections of windstorms damages under changing climate and demography for Norway A. Jaison et al. 10.1088/2752-5295/ad6a2f
- Future changes in the extratropical storm tracks and cyclone intensity, wind speed, and structure M. Priestley & J. Catto 10.5194/wcd-3-337-2022
- Robust Expansion of Extreme Midlatitude Storms Under Global Warming P. Dai & J. Nie 10.1029/2022GL099007
20 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The relationship between extra-tropical cyclone intensity and precipitation in idealised current and future climates V. Sinclair & J. Catto 10.5194/wcd-4-567-2023
- Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 2: A Lagrangian analysis E. Dolores-Tesillos & S. Pfahl 10.5194/wcd-5-163-2024
- Future Projections of EURO‐CORDEX Raw and Bias‐Corrected Daily Maximum Wind Speeds Over Scandinavia C. Michel & A. Sorteberg 10.1029/2022JD037953
- Warm conveyor belts in present-day and future climate simulations – Part 2: Role of potential vorticity production for cyclone intensification H. Binder et al. 10.5194/wcd-4-19-2023
- Response of moist and dry processes in atmospheric blocking to climate change D. Steinfeld et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac81af
- Frequency anomalies and characteristics of extratropical cyclones during extremely wet, dry, windy, and calm seasons in the extratropics H. Binder & H. Wernli 10.5194/wcd-6-151-2025
- Projected increase in windstorm severity and contribution from sting jets over the UK and Ireland C. Manning et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100562
- Assessing the impact of global warming on windstorms in the northeastern United States using the pseudo-global-warming method J. Sethunadh et al. 10.1007/s11069-023-05968-1
- CMIP6 projected trend of winter and summer variation in Arctic cyclones over the 21st century J. Song et al. 10.1007/s00382-024-07531-5
- Development shifts on the emerging Järve coast (Estonia) in Late Holocene K. Luik et al. 10.1016/j.margeo.2025.107478
- The Effect of Arctic Sea‐Ice Loss on Extratropical Cyclones S. Hay et al. 10.1029/2023GL102840
- Warm conveyor belts in present-day and future climate simulations – Part 1: Climatology and impacts H. Joos et al. 10.5194/wcd-4-133-2023
- Projected changes in extreme daily precipitation linked to changes in precipitable water and vertical velocity in CMIP6 models L. Gimeno-Sotelo et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107413
- The importance of diabatic processes for the dynamics of synoptic-scale extratropical weather systems – a review H. Wernli & S. Gray 10.5194/wcd-5-1299-2024
- Case beyond historical severity: Winds, faults, outages, and costs for electric grid J. Jasiūnas et al. 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123884
- Large-scale perspective on extreme near-surface winds in the central North Atlantic A. Stanković et al. 10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024
- Classification of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones using multiple measures of intensity J. Cornér et al. 10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025
- Projections of standardised energy indices in future climate scenarios E. Dolores-Tesillos et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad9b3f
- Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and potential future risks M. Priestley et al. 10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023
- Projections of windstorms damages under changing climate and demography for Norway A. Jaison et al. 10.1088/2752-5295/ad6a2f
Latest update: 23 Apr 2025
Short summary
Strong winds caused by extratropical cyclones represent a costly hazard for European countries. Here, based on CESM-LENS coupled climate simulations, we show that future changes of such strong winds are characterized by an increased magnitude and extended footprint southeast of the cyclone center. This intensification is related to a combination of increased diabatic heating and changes in upper-level wave dynamics.
Strong winds caused by extratropical cyclones represent a costly hazard for European countries....
