Articles | Volume 3, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Apr 2022
Research article |
| 05 Apr 2022
| 05 Apr 2022
Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 1: Cyclone intensity, potential vorticity anomalies, and horizontal wind speed
Edgar Dolores-Tesillos
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Franziska Teubler
Institute for Atmospheric Physics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, Mainz, Germany
Stephan Pfahl
Institute of Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
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Cited
31 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 2: A Lagrangian analysis E. Dolores-Tesillos & S. Pfahl https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-163-2024
- Storm Boris (2024) in the current and future climate: a dynamics-centered contextualization, and some lessons learnt J. Riboldi et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-65-2026
- Environmental characteristics associated with the development of deep warm core Mediterranean Cyclones L. Bernini et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-367-2026
- Response of moist and dry processes in atmospheric blocking to climate change D. Steinfeld et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac81af
- Anthropogenic climate change has increased severity of mid-latitude storms and impacted airport operations L. Rapella et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1339-2025
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- Development shifts on the emerging Järve coast (Estonia) in Late Holocene K. Luik et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2025.107478
- The Effect of Arctic Sea‐Ice Loss on Extratropical Cyclones S. Hay et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL102840
- Projected changes in extreme daily precipitation linked to changes in precipitable water and vertical velocity in CMIP6 models L. Gimeno-Sotelo et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107413
- Case beyond historical severity: Winds, faults, outages, and costs for electric grid J. Jasiūnas et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123884
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- Projections of windstorms damages under changing climate and demography for Norway A. Jaison et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad6a2f
- How relevant are frequency changes of weather regimes for understanding climate change signals in surface precipitation in the North Atlantic–European sector? A conceptual analysis with CESM1 large ensemble simulations L. Fischer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1027-2025
- Arctic cyclone activity changes under a warming climate Y. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01296-2
- Baroclinic Wave Simulation Ensemble: a Machine Learning ready dataset C. Bouvier et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-06089-z
- The relationship between extra-tropical cyclone intensity and precipitation in idealised current and future climates V. Sinclair & J. Catto https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-567-2023
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- Future Projections of EURO‐CORDEX Raw and Bias‐Corrected Daily Maximum Wind Speeds Over Scandinavia C. Michel & A. Sorteberg https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037953
- Warm conveyor belts in present-day and future climate simulations – Part 2: Role of potential vorticity production for cyclone intensification H. Binder et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-19-2023
- ENSO and the Temperature of the North Equatorial Counter Current D. Webb https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-3003-2025
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- Projected increase in windstorm severity and contribution from sting jets over the UK and Ireland C. Manning et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2023.100562
- CMIP6 projected trend of winter and summer variation in Arctic cyclones over the 21st century J. Song et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07531-5
- Warm conveyor belts in present-day and future climate simulations – Part 1: Climatology and impacts H. Joos et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-133-2023
- The importance of diabatic processes for the dynamics of synoptic-scale extratropical weather systems – a review H. Wernli & S. Gray https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1299-2024
- Identifying controls of extratropical cyclone intensity at genesis time and during intensification in the North Atlantic and Europe J. Cornér et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-873-2026
- Characteristics of diabatically influenced cyclones with high wind damage potential in Europe S. Christ et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70083
- Physical processes leading to extreme day-to-day temperature change – Part 2: Future climate change K. Hamal & S. Pfahl https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1009-2026
- Classification of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones using multiple measures of intensity J. Cornér et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025
- Projections of standardised energy indices in future climate scenarios E. Dolores-Tesillos et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad9b3f
- Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and potential future risks M. Priestley et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023
31 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 2: A Lagrangian analysis E. Dolores-Tesillos & S. Pfahl https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-163-2024
- Storm Boris (2024) in the current and future climate: a dynamics-centered contextualization, and some lessons learnt J. Riboldi et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-65-2026
- Environmental characteristics associated with the development of deep warm core Mediterranean Cyclones L. Bernini et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-367-2026
- Response of moist and dry processes in atmospheric blocking to climate change D. Steinfeld et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac81af
- Anthropogenic climate change has increased severity of mid-latitude storms and impacted airport operations L. Rapella et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1339-2025
- Assessing the impact of global warming on windstorms in the northeastern United States using the pseudo-global-warming method J. Sethunadh et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-05968-1
- Development shifts on the emerging Järve coast (Estonia) in Late Holocene K. Luik et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2025.107478
- The Effect of Arctic Sea‐Ice Loss on Extratropical Cyclones S. Hay et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL102840
- Projected changes in extreme daily precipitation linked to changes in precipitable water and vertical velocity in CMIP6 models L. Gimeno-Sotelo et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107413
- Case beyond historical severity: Winds, faults, outages, and costs for electric grid J. Jasiūnas et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123884
- Large-scale perspective on extreme near-surface winds in the central North Atlantic A. Stanković et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024
- Projections of windstorms damages under changing climate and demography for Norway A. Jaison et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad6a2f
- How relevant are frequency changes of weather regimes for understanding climate change signals in surface precipitation in the North Atlantic–European sector? A conceptual analysis with CESM1 large ensemble simulations L. Fischer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1027-2025
- Arctic cyclone activity changes under a warming climate Y. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01296-2
- Baroclinic Wave Simulation Ensemble: a Machine Learning ready dataset C. Bouvier et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-06089-z
- The relationship between extra-tropical cyclone intensity and precipitation in idealised current and future climates V. Sinclair & J. Catto https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-567-2023
- Atmospheric blocking representation in storm-resolving climate models under historical and future forcing E. Dolores-Tesillos et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1089-2026
- Future Projections of EURO‐CORDEX Raw and Bias‐Corrected Daily Maximum Wind Speeds Over Scandinavia C. Michel & A. Sorteberg https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037953
- Warm conveyor belts in present-day and future climate simulations – Part 2: Role of potential vorticity production for cyclone intensification H. Binder et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-19-2023
- ENSO and the Temperature of the North Equatorial Counter Current D. Webb https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-3003-2025
- Frequency anomalies and characteristics of extratropical cyclones during extremely wet, dry, windy, and calm seasons in the extratropics H. Binder & H. Wernli https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-151-2025
- Projected increase in windstorm severity and contribution from sting jets over the UK and Ireland C. Manning et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2023.100562
- CMIP6 projected trend of winter and summer variation in Arctic cyclones over the 21st century J. Song et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07531-5
- Warm conveyor belts in present-day and future climate simulations – Part 1: Climatology and impacts H. Joos et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-133-2023
- The importance of diabatic processes for the dynamics of synoptic-scale extratropical weather systems – a review H. Wernli & S. Gray https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1299-2024
- Identifying controls of extratropical cyclone intensity at genesis time and during intensification in the North Atlantic and Europe J. Cornér et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-873-2026
- Characteristics of diabatically influenced cyclones with high wind damage potential in Europe S. Christ et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70083
- Physical processes leading to extreme day-to-day temperature change – Part 2: Future climate change K. Hamal & S. Pfahl https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1009-2026
- Classification of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones using multiple measures of intensity J. Cornér et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025
- Projections of standardised energy indices in future climate scenarios E. Dolores-Tesillos et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad9b3f
- Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and potential future risks M. Priestley et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 10 Aug 2026
Short summary
Strong winds caused by extratropical cyclones represent a costly hazard for European countries. Here, based on CESM-LENS coupled climate simulations, we show that future changes of such strong winds are characterized by an increased magnitude and extended footprint southeast of the cyclone center. This intensification is related to a combination of increased diabatic heating and changes in upper-level wave dynamics.
Strong winds caused by extratropical cyclones represent a costly hazard for European countries....
