Articles | Volume 3, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Apr 2022
Research article |
| 05 Apr 2022
| 05 Apr 2022
Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 1: Cyclone intensity, potential vorticity anomalies, and horizontal wind speed
Edgar Dolores-Tesillos
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Franziska Teubler
Institute for Atmospheric Physics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, Mainz, Germany
Stephan Pfahl
Institute of Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Related authors
Hans Segura, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Philipp Weiss, Sebastian K. Müller, Thomas Rackow, Junhong Lee, Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Imme Benedict, Matthias Aengenheyster, Razvan Aguridan, Gabriele Arduini, Alexander J. Baker, Jiawei Bao, Swantje Bastin, Eulàlia Baulenas, Tobias Becker, Sebastian Beyer, Hendryk Bockelmann, Nils Brüggemann, Lukas Brunner, Suvarchal K. Cheedela, Sushant Das, Jasper Denissen, Ian Dragaud, Piotr Dziekan, Madeleine Ekblom, Jan Frederik Engels, Monika Esch, Richard Forbes, Claudia Frauen, Lilli Freischem, Diego García-Maroto, Philipp Geier, Paul Gierz, Álvaro González-Cervera, Katherine Grayson, Matthew Griffith, Oliver Gutjahr, Helmuth Haak, Ioan Hadade, Kerstin Haslehner, Shabeh ul Hasson, Jan Hegewald, Lukas Kluft, Aleksei Koldunov, Nikolay Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Shunya Koseki, Sergey Kosukhin, Josh Kousal, Peter Kuma, Arjun U. Kumar, Rumeng Li, Nicolas Maury, Maximilian Meindl, Sebastian Milinski, Kristian Mogensen, Bimochan Niraula, Jakub Nowak, Divya Sri Praturi, Ulrike Proske, Dian Putrasahan, René Redler, David Santuy, Domokos Sármány, Reiner Schnur, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Dorian Spät, Birgit Sützl, Daisuke Takasuka, Adrian Tompkins, Alejandro Uribe, Mirco Valentini, Menno Veerman, Aiko Voigt, Sarah Warnau, Fabian Wachsmann, Marta Wacławczyk, Nils Wedi, Karl-Hermann Wieners, Jonathan Wille, Marius Winkler, Yuting Wu, Florian Ziemen, Janos Zimmermann, Frida A.-M. Bender, Dragana Bojovic, Sandrine Bony, Simona Bordoni, Patrice Brehmer, Marcus Dengler, Emanuel Dutra, Saliou Faye, Erich Fischer, Chiel van Heerwaarden, Cathy Hohenegger, Heikki Järvinen, Markus Jochum, Thomas Jung, Johann H. Jungclaus, Noel S. Keenlyside, Daniel Klocke, Heike Konow, Martina Klose, Szymon Malinowski, Olivia Martius, Thorsten Mauritsen, Juan Pedro Mellado, Theresa Mieslinger, Elsa Mohino, Hanna Pawłowska, Karsten Peters-von Gehlen, Abdoulaye Sarré, Pajam Sobhani, Philip Stier, Lauri Tuppi, Pier Luigi Vidale, Irina Sandu, and Bjorn Stevens
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-509, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-509, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
The nextGEMS project developed two Earth system models that resolve processes of the order of 10 km, giving more fidelity to the representation of local phenomena, globally. In its fourth cycle, nextGEMS performed simulations with coupled ocean, land, and atmosphere over the 2020–2049 period under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. Here, we provide an overview of nextGEMS, insights into the model development, and the realism of multi-decadal, kilometer-scale simulations.
Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Olivia Martius, and Julian Quinting
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2878, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2878, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An accurate representation of synoptic weather systems in climate models is required to estimate their societal and economic impacts under climate warming. Current climate models poorly represent the frequency of atmospheric blocking. Few studies have analysed the role of moist processes as a source of bias of blocks. Here, we implement ELIAS2.0, a deep learning tool, to validate the representation of moist processes in CMIP6 models and their link to the Euro-Atlantic blocking biases.
Edgar Dolores-Tesillos and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 163–179, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-163-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In a warmer climate, the winter extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic basin are expected to have a larger footprint of strong winds. Dynamical changes at different altitudes are responsible for these wind changes. Based on backward trajectories using the CESM-LE simulations, we show that the diabatic processes gain relevance as the planet warms. For instance, changes in the radiative processes will play an important role in the upper-level cyclone dynamics.
Hans Segura, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Philipp Weiss, Sebastian K. Müller, Thomas Rackow, Junhong Lee, Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Imme Benedict, Matthias Aengenheyster, Razvan Aguridan, Gabriele Arduini, Alexander J. Baker, Jiawei Bao, Swantje Bastin, Eulàlia Baulenas, Tobias Becker, Sebastian Beyer, Hendryk Bockelmann, Nils Brüggemann, Lukas Brunner, Suvarchal K. Cheedela, Sushant Das, Jasper Denissen, Ian Dragaud, Piotr Dziekan, Madeleine Ekblom, Jan Frederik Engels, Monika Esch, Richard Forbes, Claudia Frauen, Lilli Freischem, Diego García-Maroto, Philipp Geier, Paul Gierz, Álvaro González-Cervera, Katherine Grayson, Matthew Griffith, Oliver Gutjahr, Helmuth Haak, Ioan Hadade, Kerstin Haslehner, Shabeh ul Hasson, Jan Hegewald, Lukas Kluft, Aleksei Koldunov, Nikolay Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Shunya Koseki, Sergey Kosukhin, Josh Kousal, Peter Kuma, Arjun U. Kumar, Rumeng Li, Nicolas Maury, Maximilian Meindl, Sebastian Milinski, Kristian Mogensen, Bimochan Niraula, Jakub Nowak, Divya Sri Praturi, Ulrike Proske, Dian Putrasahan, René Redler, David Santuy, Domokos Sármány, Reiner Schnur, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Dorian Spät, Birgit Sützl, Daisuke Takasuka, Adrian Tompkins, Alejandro Uribe, Mirco Valentini, Menno Veerman, Aiko Voigt, Sarah Warnau, Fabian Wachsmann, Marta Wacławczyk, Nils Wedi, Karl-Hermann Wieners, Jonathan Wille, Marius Winkler, Yuting Wu, Florian Ziemen, Janos Zimmermann, Frida A.-M. Bender, Dragana Bojovic, Sandrine Bony, Simona Bordoni, Patrice Brehmer, Marcus Dengler, Emanuel Dutra, Saliou Faye, Erich Fischer, Chiel van Heerwaarden, Cathy Hohenegger, Heikki Järvinen, Markus Jochum, Thomas Jung, Johann H. Jungclaus, Noel S. Keenlyside, Daniel Klocke, Heike Konow, Martina Klose, Szymon Malinowski, Olivia Martius, Thorsten Mauritsen, Juan Pedro Mellado, Theresa Mieslinger, Elsa Mohino, Hanna Pawłowska, Karsten Peters-von Gehlen, Abdoulaye Sarré, Pajam Sobhani, Philip Stier, Lauri Tuppi, Pier Luigi Vidale, Irina Sandu, and Bjorn Stevens
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-509, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-509, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
The nextGEMS project developed two Earth system models that resolve processes of the order of 10 km, giving more fidelity to the representation of local phenomena, globally. In its fourth cycle, nextGEMS performed simulations with coupled ocean, land, and atmosphere over the 2020–2049 period under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. Here, we provide an overview of nextGEMS, insights into the model development, and the realism of multi-decadal, kilometer-scale simulations.
Kalpana Hamal and Stephan Pfahl
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3732, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3732, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the global drivers of sudden temperature changes from one day to the next using observational data and trajectory analysis. In extratropical regions, these shifts are mainly driven by air mass movements linked to circulation patterns. In tropical areas, local factors like cloud cover play a key role. Understanding these mechanisms improves predictions of extreme temperature events, aiding in better preparation and mitigation strategies.
George Pacey, Stephan Pfahl, and Lisa Schielicke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2978, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2978, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Cold fronts are often associated with areas of intense precipitation (cells) in the warm-season, but the drivers and environments of cells at different locations relative to the front are not well-understood. We show that cells ahead of the surface front have the highest amount of environmental instability and moisture. Also, low-level lifting is maximised ahead of the surface front and upper-level lifting is particularly important for cell initiation behind the front.
Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Olivia Martius, and Julian Quinting
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2878, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2878, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An accurate representation of synoptic weather systems in climate models is required to estimate their societal and economic impacts under climate warming. Current climate models poorly represent the frequency of atmospheric blocking. Few studies have analysed the role of moist processes as a source of bias of blocks. Here, we implement ELIAS2.0, a deep learning tool, to validate the representation of moist processes in CMIP6 models and their link to the Euro-Atlantic blocking biases.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2939–2952, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-impact river floods are often caused by extreme precipitation. Flood protection relies on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties in the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.
Henry Schoeller, Robin Chemnitz, Péter Koltai, Maximilian Engel, and Stephan Pfahl
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2173, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2173, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We identify spatially coherent air streams into atmospheric blockings, which are important weather phenomena. By adapting mathematical methods to the atmosphere, we confirm previous findings. Our work shows that spatially coherent air streams featuring cloud formation correlate with strengthening of the blocking. The developed framework also allows statements about the spatial behavior of the air parcels as a whole and indicates that blockings reduce the dispersion air parcels.
Seraphine Hauser, Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Peter Knippertz, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 633–658, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Blocking over Greenland has substantial impacts on the weather and climate in mid- and high latitudes. This study applies a quasi-Lagrangian thinking on the dynamics of Greenland blocking and reveals two pathways of anticyclonic anomalies linked to the block. Moist processes were found to play a dominant role in the formation and maintenance of blocking. This emphasizes the necessity of the correct representation of moist processes in weather and climate models to realistically depict blocking.
Edgar Dolores-Tesillos and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 163–179, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-163-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In a warmer climate, the winter extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic basin are expected to have a larger footprint of strong winds. Dynamical changes at different altitudes are responsible for these wind changes. Based on backward trajectories using the CESM-LE simulations, we show that the diabatic processes gain relevance as the planet warms. For instance, changes in the radiative processes will play an important role in the upper-level cyclone dynamics.
Julian F. Quinting, Christian M. Grams, Edmund Kar-Man Chang, Stephan Pfahl, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 65–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-65-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-65-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Research in the last few decades has revealed that rapidly ascending airstreams in extratropical cyclones have an important effect on the evolution of downstream weather and predictability. In this study, we show that the occurrence of these airstreams over the North Pacific is modulated by tropical convection. Depending on the modulation, known atmospheric circulation patterns evolve quite differently, which may affect extended-range predictions in the Atlantic–European region.
George Pacey, Stephan Pfahl, Lisa Schielicke, and Kathrin Wapler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cold fronts are often associated with areas of intense precipitation (cells) and sometimes with hazards such as flooding, hail and lightning. We find that cold-frontal cell days are associated with higher cell frequency and cells are typically more intense. We also show both spatially and temporally where cells are most frequent depending on their cell-front distance. These results are an important step towards a deeper understanding of cold-frontal storm climatology and improved forecasting.
Leonie Villiger, Marina Dütsch, Sandrine Bony, Marie Lothon, Stephan Pfahl, Heini Wernli, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Patrick Chazette, Pierre Coutris, Julien Delanoë, Cyrille Flamant, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Martin Werner, and Franziska Aemisegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14643–14672, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates three numerical simulations performed with an isotope-enabled weather forecast model and investigates the coupling between shallow trade-wind cumulus clouds and atmospheric circulations on different scales. We show that the simulations reproduce key characteristics of shallow trade-wind clouds as observed during the field experiment EUREC4A and that the spatial distribution of stable-water-vapour isotopes is shaped by the overturning circulation associated with these clouds.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 427–447, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-427-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-427-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we analyse the generic atmospheric processes of very extreme, 100-year precipitation events in large central European river catchments and the corresponding differences to less extreme events, based on a large time series (~1200 years) of simulated but realistic daily precipitation events from the ECMWF. Depending on the catchment, either dynamical mechanisms or thermodynamic conditions or a combination of both distinguish 100-year events from less extreme precipitation events.
Seraphine Hauser, Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Peter Knippertz, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 399–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-399-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Blocking describes a flow configuration in the midlatitudes where stationary high-pressure systems block the propagation of weather systems. This study combines three individual perspectives that capture the dynamics and importance of various processes in the formation of a major blocking in 2016 from a weather regime perspective. In future work, this framework will enable a holistic view of the dynamics and the role of moist processes in different life cycle stages of blocked weather regimes.
Charles G. Gertler, Paul A. O'Gorman, and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 361–379, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-361-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The relationship between the time-mean state of the atmosphere and aspects of atmospheric circulation drives general understanding of the atmospheric circulation. Here, we present new techniques to calculate local properties of the time-mean atmosphere and relate those properties to aspects of extratropical circulation with important implications for weather. This relationship should help connect changes to the atmosphere, such as under global warming, to changes in midlatitude weather.
Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Christopher Polster, Christian M. Grams, Seraphine Hauser, and Volkmar Wirth
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 265–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-265-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-265-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Weather regimes govern an important part of the sub-seasonal variability of the mid-latitude circulation. The year-round dynamics of blocked regimes in the Atlantic European region are investigated in over 40 years of data. We show that the dynamics between the regimes are on average very similar. Within the regimes, the main variability – starting from the characteristics of dynamical processes alone – dominates and transcends the variability in season and types of transitions.
Lisa Schielicke and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1439–1459, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1439-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1439-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Projected future heatwaves in many European regions will be even warmer than the mean increase in summer temperature suggests. To identify the underlying thermodynamic and dynamic processes, we compare Lagrangian backward trajectories of airstreams associated with heatwaves in two time slices (1991–2000 and 2091–2100) in a large single-model ensemble (CEMS-LE). We find stronger future descent associated with adiabatic warming in some regions and increased future diabatic heating in most regions.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Markus Augenstein, Georgy Ayzel, Klemens Barfus, Ribu Cherian, Lisa Dillenardt, Felix Fauer, Hendrik Feldmann, Maik Heistermann, Alexia Karwat, Frank Kaspar, Heidi Kreibich, Etor Emanuel Lucio-Eceiza, Edmund P. Meredith, Susanna Mohr, Deborah Niermann, Stephan Pfahl, Florian Ruff, Henning W. Rust, Lukas Schoppa, Thomas Schwitalla, Stella Steidl, Annegret H. Thieken, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Johannes Quaas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3701–3724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In a warming climate, extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent. To advance our knowledge on such phenomena, we present a multidisciplinary analysis of a selected case study that took place on 29 June 2017 in the Berlin metropolitan area. Our analysis provides evidence of the extremeness of the case from the atmospheric and the impacts perspectives as well as new insights on the physical mechanisms of the event at the meteorological and climate scales.
Andries Jan de Vries, Franziska Aemisegger, Stephan Pfahl, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8863–8895, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8863-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth's water cycle contains the common H2O molecule but also the less abundant, heavier HDO. We use their different physical properties to study tropical ice clouds in model simulations of the West African monsoon. Isotope signals reveal different processes through which ice clouds form and decay in deep-convective and widespread cirrus. Previously observed variations in upper-tropospheric vapour isotopes are explained by microphysical processes in convective updraughts and downdraughts.
Lisa-Ann Kautz, Olivia Martius, Stephan Pfahl, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, Pedro M. Sousa, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 305–336, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric blocking is associated with stationary, self-sustaining and long-lasting high-pressure systems. They can cause or at least influence surface weather extremes, such as heat waves, cold spells, heavy precipitation events, droughts or wind extremes. The location of the blocking determines where and what type of extreme event will occur. These relationships are also important for weather prediction and may change due to global warming.
Fabienne Dahinden, Franziska Aemisegger, Heini Wernli, Matthias Schneider, Christopher J. Diekmann, Benjamin Ertl, Peter Knippertz, Martin Werner, and Stephan Pfahl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16319–16347, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use high-resolution numerical isotope modelling and Lagrangian backward trajectories to identify moisture transport pathways and governing physical and dynamical processes that affect the free-tropospheric humidity and isotopic variability over the eastern subtropical North Atlantic. Furthermore, we conduct a thorough isotope modelling validation with aircraft and remote-sensing observations of water vapour isotopes.
Zhihong Zhuo, Ingo Kirchner, Stephan Pfahl, and Ulrich Cubasch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13425–13442, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13425-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13425-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of volcanic eruptions varies with eruption season and latitude. This study simulated eruptions at different latitudes and in different seasons with a fully coupled climate model. The climate impacts of northern and southern hemispheric eruptions are reversed but are insensitive to eruption season. Results suggest that the regional climate impacts are due to the dynamical response of the climate system to radiative effects of volcanic aerosols and the subsequent regional feedbacks.
Franziska Teubler and Michael Riemer
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 535–559, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-535-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-535-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Rossby wave packets impact all aspects of midlatitude weather systems, from their climatological distribution to predictability. Case studies suggest an important role of latent heat release in clouds. We investigate thousands of wave packets with a novel diagnostic. We demonstrate that, on average, the impact of moist processes is substantially different between troughs and ridges and that dry conceptual models of wave packet dynamics should be extended.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Suzanne L. Gray, and Franziska Teubler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 255–279, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-255-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-255-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we quantify the relative contribution of different atmospheric processes to the development of 100 intense Mediterranean cyclones and show that both upper tropospheric systems and diabatic processes contribute to cyclone development. However, these contributions are complex and present high variability among the cases. For this reason, we analyse several exemplary cases in more detail, including 10 systems that have been identified in the past as tropical-like cyclones.
Daniel Steinfeld, Maxi Boettcher, Richard Forbes, and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 405–426, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of latent heating on atmospheric blocking is investigated using numerical sensitivity experiments. The modification of latent heating in the upstream cyclone has substantial effects on the upper-tropospheric circulation, demonstrating that some blocking systems do not develop at all without upstream latent heating. The results highlight the importance of moist-diabatic processes for the dynamics of prolonged anticyclonic circulation anomalies.
Iris Thurnherr, Anna Kozachek, Pascal Graf, Yongbiao Weng, Dimitri Bolshiyanov, Sebastian Landwehr, Stephan Pfahl, Julia Schmale, Harald Sodemann, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Alessandro Toffoli, Heini Wernli, and Franziska Aemisegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 5811–5835, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5811-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5811-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Stable water isotopes (SWIs) are tracers of moist atmospheric processes. We analyse the impact of large- to small-scale atmospheric processes and various environmental conditions on the variability of SWIs using ship-based SWI measurement in water vapour from the Atlantic and Southern Ocean. Furthermore, simultaneous measurements of SWIs at two altitudes are used to illustrate the potential of such measurements for future research to estimate sea spray evaporation and turbulent moisture fluxes.
Philipp Zschenderlein, Stephan Pfahl, Heini Wernli, and Andreas H. Fink
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 191–206, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-191-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-191-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the formation of upper-tropospheric anticyclones connected to European surface heat waves. Tracing air masses backwards from these anticyclones, we found that trajectories are diabatically heated in two branches, either by North Atlantic cyclones or by convection closer to the heat wave anticyclone. The first branch primarily affects the onset of the anticyclone, while the second branch is more relevant for the maintenance. Our results are relevant for heat wave predictions.
Mareike Schuster, Jens Grieger, Andy Richling, Thomas Schartner, Sebastian Illing, Christopher Kadow, Wolfgang A. Müller, Holger Pohlmann, Stephan Pfahl, and Uwe Ulbrich
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 901–917, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-901-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-901-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Decadal climate predictions are valuable to society as they allow us to estimate climate conditions several years in advance. We analyze the latest version of the German MiKlip prediction system (https://www.fona-miklip.de) and assess the effect of the model resolution on the skill of the system. The increase in the resolution of the system reduces the bias and significantly improves the forecast skill for North Atlantic extratropical winter dynamics for lead times of two to five winters.
Emmanuele Russo, Ingo Kirchner, Stephan Pfahl, Martijn Schaap, and Ulrich Cubasch
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5229–5249, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5229-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5229-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This is an investigation of COSMO-CLM 5.0 sensitivity for the CORDEX Central Asia domain, with the main goal of evaluating general model performances for the area, proposing a model optimal configuration to be used in projection studies.
Results show that the model seems to be particularly sensitive to those parameterizations that deal with soil and surface features and that could positively affect the repartition of incoming radiation.
Keun-Ok Lee, Franziska Aemisegger, Stephan Pfahl, Cyrille Flamant, Jean-Lionel Lacour, and Jean-Pierre Chaboureau
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7487–7506, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7487-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7487-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Our study is the first study to investigate the potential benefit of stable water isotopes (SWIs) in the context of a heavy precipitation event in the Mediterranean. As such, our study provides a proof of concept of the usefulness of SWI data to understand the variety of origins and moisture processes associated with air masses feeding the convection over southern Italy.
Bojan Škerlak, Stephan Pfahl, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6535–6549, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6535-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6535-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Upper-level fronts are often associated with the rapid transport of stratospheric air to the lower troposphere, leading to significantly enhanced ozone concentrations. This paper considers the multi-scale nature that is needed to bring stratospheric air down to the surface. The final transport step to the surface can be related to frontal zones and the associated vertical winds or to near-horizontal tracer transport followed by entrainment into a growing planetary boundary layer.
Pascal Graf, Heini Wernli, Stephan Pfahl, and Harald Sodemann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 747–765, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-747-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-747-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This article studies the interaction between falling rain and vapour with stable water isotopes. In particular, rain evaporation is relevant for several atmospheric processes, but remains difficult to quantify. A novel framework is introduced to facilitate the interpretation of stable water isotope observations in near-surface vapour and rain. The usefulness of this concept is demonstrated using observations at high time resolution from a cold front. Sensitivities are tested with a simple model.
Johannes Eckstein, Roland Ruhnke, Stephan Pfahl, Emanuel Christner, Christopher Diekmann, Christoph Dyroff, Daniel Reinert, Daniel Rieger, Matthias Schneider, Jennifer Schröter, Andreas Zahn, and Peter Braesicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5113–5133, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5113-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5113-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present ICON-ART-Iso, an extension to the global circulation model ICON, which allows for the simulation of the stable isotopologues of water. The main advantage over other isotope-enabled models is its flexible design with respect to the number of tracers simulated. We compare the results of several simulations to measurements of different scale. ICON-ART-Iso is able to reasonably reproduce the measurements. It is a promising tool to aid in the investigation of the atmospheric water cycle.
Marina Dütsch, Stephan Pfahl, Miro Meyer, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1653–1669, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1653-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1653-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric processes are imprinted in the concentrations of stable water isotopes. Therefore, isotopes can be used to gain insight into these processes and improve our understanding of the water cycle. In this study, we present a new method that quantitatively shows which atmospheric processes influence isotope concentrations in near-surface water vapour over Europe. We found that the most important processes are evaporation from the ocean, evapotranspiration from land, and turbulent mixing.
Harald Sodemann, Franziska Aemisegger, Stephan Pfahl, Mark Bitter, Ulrich Corsmeier, Thomas Feuerle, Pascal Graf, Rolf Hankers, Gregor Hsiao, Helmut Schulz, Andreas Wieser, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6125–6151, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6125-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6125-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We report here the first survey of stable water isotope composition over the Mediterranean sea made from aircraft. The stable isotope composition of the atmospheric water vapour changed in response to evaporation conditions at the sea surface, elevation, and airmass transport history. Our data set will be valuable for testing how water is transported in weather prediction and climate models and for understanding processes in the Mediterranean water cycle.
C. M. Grams, H. Binder, S. Pfahl, N. Piaget, and H. Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1691–1702, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1691-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1691-2014, 2014
A. Winschall, S. Pfahl, H. Sodemann, and H. Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6605–6619, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6605-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6605-2014, 2014
S. Pfahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1461–1475, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1461-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1461-2014, 2014
F. Aemisegger, S. Pfahl, H. Sodemann, I. Lehner, S. I. Seneviratne, and H. Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 4029–4054, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4029-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4029-2014, 2014
S. Pfahl and H. Sodemann
Clim. Past, 10, 771–781, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-771-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-771-2014, 2014
A. K. Miltenberger, S. Pfahl, and H. Wernli
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1989–2004, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1989-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1989-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Role of atmospheric dynamics in climate change projections
On the role of moist and dry processes for atmospheric blocking biases in the Euro-Atlantic region in CMIP6
Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change?
Impact of climate change on persistent cold-air pools in an alpine valley during the 21st century
Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 2: A Lagrangian analysis
Atmospheric bias teleconnections in boreal winter associated with systematic sea surface temperature errors in the tropical Indian Ocean
The relationship between extra-tropical cyclone intensity and precipitation in idealised current and future climates
Future changes in the mean and variability of extreme rainfall indices over the Guinea coast and role of the Atlantic equatorial mode
Warm conveyor belts in present-day and future climate simulations – Part 1: Climatology and impacts
Warm conveyor belts in present-day and future climate simulations – Part 2: Role of potential vorticity production for cyclone intensification
A climate-change attribution retrospective of some impactful weather extremes of 2021
The response of tropical cyclone intensity to changes in environmental temperature
Relationship between southern hemispheric jet variability and forced response: the role of the stratosphere
Storm track response to uniform global warming downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature front
Impact of climate change on wintertime European atmospheric blocking
Twenty-first-century Southern Hemisphere impacts of ozone recovery and climate change from the stratosphere to the ocean
Future summer warming pattern under climate change is affected by lapse-rate changes
The importance of horizontal model resolution on simulated precipitation in Europe – from global to regional models
Future wintertime meridional wind trends through the lens of subseasonal teleconnections
Decomposing the response of the stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation to an abrupt quadrupling in CO2
The substructure of extremely hot summers in the Northern Hemisphere
Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Olivia Martius, and Julian Quinting
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2878, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2878, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An accurate representation of synoptic weather systems in climate models is required to estimate their societal and economic impacts under climate warming. Current climate models poorly represent the frequency of atmospheric blocking. Few studies have analysed the role of moist processes as a source of bias of blocks. Here, we implement ELIAS2.0, a deep learning tool, to validate the representation of moist processes in CMIP6 models and their link to the Euro-Atlantic blocking biases.
Sebastian Sippel, Clair Barnes, Camille Cadiou, Erich Fischer, Sarah Kew, Marlene Kretschmer, Sjoukje Philip, Theodore G. Shepherd, Jitendra Singh, Robert Vautard, and Pascal Yiou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Winter temperatures in central Europe have increased. But cold winters can still cause problems for energy systems, infrastructure, or human health. Here we tested whether a record-cold winter, such as the one observed in 1963 over central Europe, could still occur despite climate change. The answer is yes: it is possible, but it is very unlikely. Our results rely on climate model simulations and statistical rare event analysis. In conclusion, society must be prepared for such cold winters.
Sara Bacer, Julien Beaumet, Martin Ménégoz, Hubert Gallée, Enzo Le Bouëdec, and Chantal Staquet
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 211–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-211-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-211-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A model chain is used to downscale outputs from a climate model to the Grenoble valley atmosphere over the 21st century in order to study the impact of climate change on persistent cold-air pool episodes. We find that the atmosphere in the Grenoble valleys during these episodes tends to be slightly less stable in the future under the SSP5–8.5 scenario, and statistically unchanged under the SSP2–4.5 scenario but that very stable persistent cold-air pool episodes can still form.
Edgar Dolores-Tesillos and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 163–179, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-163-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In a warmer climate, the winter extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic basin are expected to have a larger footprint of strong winds. Dynamical changes at different altitudes are responsible for these wind changes. Based on backward trajectories using the CESM-LE simulations, we show that the diabatic processes gain relevance as the planet warms. For instance, changes in the radiative processes will play an important role in the upper-level cyclone dynamics.
Yuan-Bing Zhao, Nedjeljka Žagar, Frank Lunkeit, and Richard Blender
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 833–852, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-833-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-833-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coupled climate models have significant biases in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST). Our study shows that the TIO SST biases can affect the simulated global atmospheric circulation and its spatio-temporal variability on large scales. The response of the spatial variability is related to the amplitude or phase of the circulation bias, depending on the flow regime and spatial scale, while the response of the interannual variability depends on the sign of the SST bias.
Victoria A. Sinclair and Jennifer L. Catto
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 567–589, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-567-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-567-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the relationship between the strength of mid-latitude cyclones and their precipitation, how this may change in the future, and whether it depends of the type of cyclone. The relationship between cyclone strength and precipitation increases in warmer climates and depends strongly on the type of cyclone. For some cyclone types there is no relation between cyclone strength and precipitation. For all cyclone types, precipitation increases with uniform warming and polar amplification.
Koffi Worou, Thierry Fichefet, and Hugues Goosse
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 511–530, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-511-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-511-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic equatorial mode (AEM) of variability is partly responsible for the year-to-year rainfall variability over the Guinea coast. We used the current climate models to explore the present-day and future links between the AEM and the extreme rainfall indices over the Guinea coast. Under future global warming, the total variability of the extreme rainfall indices increases over the Guinea coast. However, the future impact of the AEM on extreme rainfall events decreases over the region.
Hanna Joos, Michael Sprenger, Hanin Binder, Urs Beyerle, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 133–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are strongly ascending, cloud- and precipitation-forming airstreams in extratropical cyclones. In this study we assess their representation in a climate simulation and their changes under global warming. They become moister, become more intense, and reach higher altitudes in a future climate, implying that they potentially have an increased impact on the mid-latitude flow.
Hanin Binder, Hanna Joos, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 19–37, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-19-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-19-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are the main cloud- and precipitation-producing airstreams in extratropical cyclones. The latent heat release that occurs during cloud formation often contributes to the intensification of the associated cyclone. Based on the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble coupled climate simulations, we show that WCBs and associated latent heating will become stronger in a future climate and be even more important for explosive cyclone intensification than in the present.
Davide Faranda, Stella Bourdin, Mireia Ginesta, Meriem Krouma, Robin Noyelle, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1311–1340, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze the atmospheric circulation leading to impactful extreme events for the calendar year 2021 such as the Storm Filomena, Westphalia floods, Hurricane Ida and Medicane Apollo. For some of the events, we find that climate change has contributed to their occurrence or enhanced their intensity; for other events, we find that they are unprecedented. Our approach underscores the importance of considering changes in the atmospheric circulation when performing attribution studies.
James M. Done, Gary M. Lackmann, and Andreas F. Prein
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 693–711, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-693-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-693-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We know that warm oceans generally favour tropical cyclones (TCs). Less is known about the role of air temperature above the oceans extending into the lower stratosphere. Our global analysis of historical records and computer simulations suggests that TCs strengthen in response to historical temperature change while also being influenced by other environmental factors. Ocean warming drives much of the strengthening, with relatively small contributions from temperature changes aloft.
Philipp Breul, Paulo Ceppi, and Theodore G. Shepherd
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 645–658, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-645-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-645-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how the mid-latitude jet stream will respond to a changing climate is highly important. Unfortunately, climate models predict a wide variety of possible responses. Theoretical frameworks can link an internal jet variability timescale to its response. However, we show that stratospheric influence approximately doubles the internal timescale, inflating predicted responses. We demonstrate an approach to account for the stratospheric influence and recover correct response predictions.
Sebastian Schemm, Lukas Papritz, and Gwendal Rivière
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 601–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Much of the change in our daily weather patterns is due to the development and intensification of extratropical cyclones. The response of these systems to climate change is an important topic of ongoing research. This study is the first to reproduce the changes in the North Atlantic circulation and extratropical cyclone characteristics found in fully coupled Earth system models under high-CO2 scenarios, but in an idealized, reduced-complexity simulation with uniform warming.
Sara Bacer, Fatima Jomaa, Julien Beaumet, Hubert Gallée, Enzo Le Bouëdec, Martin Ménégoz, and Chantal Staquet
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 377–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-377-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-377-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We study the impact of climate change on wintertime atmospheric blocking over Europe. We focus on the frequency, duration, and size of blocking events. The blocking events are identified via the weather type decomposition methodology. We find that blocking frequency, duration, and size are mostly stationary over the 21st century. Additionally, we compare the blocking size results with the size of the blocking events identified via a different approach using a blocking index.
Ioana Ivanciu, Katja Matthes, Arne Biastoch, Sebastian Wahl, and Jan Harlaß
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 139–171, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-139-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase, while the Antarctic ozone hole is expected to recover during the twenty-first century. We separate the effects of ozone recovery and of greenhouse gases on the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric and oceanic circulation, and we find that ozone recovery is generally reducing the impact of greenhouse gases, with the exception of certain regions of the stratosphere during spring, where the two effects reinforce each other.
Roman Brogli, Silje Lund Sørland, Nico Kröner, and Christoph Schär
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1093–1110, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1093-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1093-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In a warmer future climate, climate simulations predict that some land areas will experience excessive warming during summer. We show that the excessive summer warming is related to the vertical distribution of warming within the atmosphere. In regions characterized by excessive warming, much of the warming occurs close to the surface. In other regions, most of the warming is redistributed to higher levels in the atmosphere, which weakens the surface warming.
Gustav Strandberg and Petter Lind
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 181–204, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-181-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-181-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation is a key climate variable with a large impact on society but also difficult to simulate as it depends largely on temporal and spatial scales. We look here at the effect of model resolution on precipitation in Europe, from coarse-scale global model to small-scale regional models. Higher resolution improves simulated precipitation generally, but individual models may over- or underestimate precipitation even at higher resolution.
Dor Sandler and Nili Harnik
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 427–443, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-427-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-427-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The circumglobal teleconnection pattern (CTP) is a wavy pattern of wintertime midlatitude subseasonal flow. It is also linked to various extreme weather events. The CTP is predicted to play a prominent role in future climate. We find that for future projections, most CMIP5 models predict that the CTP will develop a
preferredphase. Our work establishes that the CTP-like climate change signature is in fact comprised of several regional effects, partly due to shifts in CTP phase distributions.
Andreas Chrysanthou, Amanda C. Maycock, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 155–174, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-155-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-155-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We perform 50-year-long time-slice experiments using the Met Office HadGEM3 global climate model in order to decompose the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2 in three distinct components, (a) the rapid adjustment, associated with CO2 radiative effects; (b) a global uniform sea surface temperature warming; and (c) sea surface temperature patterns. This demonstrates a potential for fast and slow timescales of the response of the BDC to greenhouse gas forcing.
Matthias Röthlisberger, Michael Sprenger, Emmanouil Flaounas, Urs Beyerle, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 45–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-45-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-45-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we quantify how much the coldest, middle and hottest third of all days during extremely hot summers contribute to their respective seasonal mean anomaly. This
extreme-summer substructurevaries substantially across the Northern Hemisphere and is directly related to the local physical drivers of extreme summers. Furthermore, comparing re-analysis (i.e. measurement-based) and climate model extreme-summer substructures reveals a remarkable level of agreement.
Cited articles
Ahmadi-Givi, F., Graig, G., and Plant, R.: The dynamics of a midlatitude
cyclone with very strong latent-heat release, Q. J. Roy.
Meteorol. Soc., 130, 295–323, https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.02.226, 2004. a, b
Barnes, S. L. and Colman, B. R.: Quasigeostrophic diagnosis of cyclogenesis
associated with a cutoff extratropical cyclone-The Christmas 1987 storm,
Mon. Weather Rev., 121, 1613–1634,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1993)121<1613:QDOCAW>2.0.CO;2, 1993. a
Bengtsson, L., Hodges, K. I., and Keenlyside, N.: Will extratropical storms
intensify in a warmer climate?, J. Climate, 22, 2276–2301,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2678.1, 2009. a, b
Bjerknes, J.: On the structure of moving cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 47,
95–99, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1919)47<95:OTSOMC>2.0.CO;2, 1919. a
Bluestein, H. B.: Synoptic-dynamic Meteorology in Midlatitudes: Observations
and theory of weather systems, Vol. 2, Taylor & Francis, ISBN: 0-19-506268-X, 198 Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10016-4314, 1992. a
Brennan, M. J., Lackmann, G. M., and Mahoney, K. M.: Potential vorticity (PV)
thinking in operations: The utility of nonconservation, Weather
Forecast., 23, 168–182, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007WAF2006044.1, 2008. a
Browning, K.: The sting at the end of the tail: Damaging winds associated with
extratropical cyclones, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological
Society: A journal of the atmospheric sciences, Appl. Meteorol.
Phys. Oceanogr., 130, 375–399, https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.02.143, 2004. a
Browning, K. A.: Organization of clouds and precipitation in extratropical
cyclones, in: Extratropical cyclones, 129–153, Springer, edited by: Newton, C. W. and Holopainen, E. O., First edition,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-944970-33-8_8, 1990. a
Büeler, D. and Pfahl, S.: Potential vorticity diagnostics to quantify
effects of latent heating in extratropical cyclones. Part I: Methodology,
J. Atmos. Sci., 74, 3567–3590,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0041.1, 2017. a, b, c
Čampa, J. and Wernli, H.: A PV perspective on the vertical structure of
mature midlatitude cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere, J.
Atmos. Sci., 69, 725–740, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-11-050.1, 2012. a
Catto, J.: Extratropical cyclone classification and its use in climate studies,
Rev. Geophys., 54, 486–520, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016RG000519, 2016. a, b
Catto, J., Jakob, C., Berry, G., and Nicholls, N.: Relating global
precipitation to atmospheric fronts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L10805,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051736, 2012. a
Catto, J. L. and Pfahl, S.: The importance of fronts for extreme precipitation,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 10–791,
https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50852, 2013. a
Catto, J. L., Shaffrey, L. C., and Hodges, K. I.: Can climate models capture
the structure of extratropical cyclones?, J. Climate, 23, 1621–1635,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3318.1, 2010. a, b
Catto, J. L., Ackerley, D., Booth, J. F., Champion, A. J., Colle, B. A., Pfahl,
S., Pinto, J. G., Quinting, J. F., and Seiler, C.: The Future of Midlatitude
Cyclones, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 5, 407–420,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00149-4, 2019. a, b, c, d
Chang, E. K., Lee, S., and Swanson, K. L.: Storm track dynamics, J.
Climate, 15, 2163–2183, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<02163:STD>2.0.CO;2,
2002. a
Charney, J.: The use of the primitive equations of motion in numerical
prediction, Tellus, 7, 22–26, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1955.tb01138.x,
1955. a
Clark, P. A. and Gray, S. L.: Sting jets in extratropical cyclones: A review,
Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 144, 943–969,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3267, 2018. a
Dacre, H., Hawcroft, M., Stringer, M., and Hodges, K.: An extratropical cyclone
atlas: A tool for illustrating cyclone structure and evolution
characteristics, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93,
1497–1502, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00164.1, 2012. a
Day, J. J., Holland, M. M., and Hodges, K. I.: Seasonal differences in the
response of Arctic cyclones to climate change in CESM1, Clim. Dynam., 50,
3885–3903, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3767-x, 2018. a, b, c, d
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S., Simmons, A., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S.,
Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M., Balsamo, G., Bauer, D. P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim
reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system,
Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553–597,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011. a
Deveson, A., Browning, K., and Hewson, T.: A classification of FASTEX cyclones
using a height-attributable quasi-geostrophic vertical-motion diagnostic,
Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 128,
93–117, https://doi.org/10.1256/00359000260498806, 2002. a
Donat, M. G., Leckebusch, G. C., Pinto, J. G., and Ulbrich, U.: European
storminess and associated circulation weather types: future changes deduced
from a multi-model ensemble of GCM simulations, Clim. Res., 42, 27–43,
https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00853, 2010. a
Ertel, H.: Ein neuer hydrodynamischer Wirbelsatz, Meteorol. Z., 59, 277–281, 1942. a
Flaounas, E., Gray, S. L., and Teubler, F.: A process-based anatomy of
Mediterranean cyclones: from baroclinic lows to tropical-like systems,
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 255–279, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-255-2021,
2021. a
Grams, C. M., Wernli, H., Böttcher, M., Čampa, J., Corsmeier, U.,
Jones, S. C., Keller, J. H., Lenz, C.-J., and Wiegand, L.: The key role of
diabatic processes in modifying the upper-tropospheric wave guide: a North
Atlantic case-study, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc.,
137, 2174–2193, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.891, 2011. a
Grise, K. M. and Polvani, L. M.: The response of midlatitude jets to increased
CO2: Distinguishing the roles of sea surface temperature and direct radiative
forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 6863–6871,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061638, 2014. a, b
Hawcroft, M., Shaffrey, L., Hodges, K., and Dacre, H.: How much Northern
Hemisphere precipitation is associated with extratropical cyclones?,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L24809, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053866, 2012. a
Hewson, T. D. and Neu, U.: Cyclones, windstorms and the IMILAST project, Tellus
A, 67, 27128,
https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v67.27128, 2015. a
Hodges, K.: Adaptive constraints for feature tracking, Mon. Weather Rev.,
127, 1362–1373, 1999. a
Hoskins, B. J., McIntyre, M. E., and Robertson, A. W.: On the use and
significance of isentropic potential vorticity maps, Q. J.
Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 111, 877–946, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49711147002,
1985. a, b, c, d
Houze Jr., R. A.: Cloud dynamics, Academic press, 432 pp.
ISBN: 9780080921464, 2014. a
Kay, J. E., Deser, C., Phillips, A., Mai, A., Hannay, C., Strand, G.,
Arblaster, J. M., Bates, S., Danabasoglu, G., Edwards, J., Holland, M., Kushner, P., Lamarque, J.-F., Lawrence, D., Lindsay, K., Middleton, A., Munoz, E., Neale, R., Oleson, K., Polvani, L., and Vertenstein, M.: The
Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble project: A community
resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate
variability, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, 1333–1349,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1, 2015. a
Klawa, M. and Ulbrich, U.: A model for the estimation of storm losses and the identification of severe winter storms in Germany, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 3, 725–732, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-3-725-2003, 2003. a
Lackmann, G. M.: Cold-frontal potential vorticity maxima, the low-level jet,
and moisture transport in extratropical cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev.,
130, 59–74, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<0059:CFPVMT>2.0.CO;2, 2002. a
Lamarque, J.-F., Bond, T. C., Eyring, V., Granier, C., Heil, A., Klimont, Z., Lee, D., Liousse, C., Mieville, A., Owen, B., Schultz, M. G., Shindell, D., Smith, S. J., Stehfest, E., Van Aardenne, J., Cooper, O. R., Kainuma, M., Mahowald, N., McConnell, J. R., Naik, V., Riahi, K., and van Vuuren, D. P.: Historical (1850–2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 7017–7039, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-7017-2010, 2010. a
Lamarque, J.-F., Kyle, G. P., Meinshausen, M., Riahi, K., Smith, S. J., van
Vuuren, D. P., Conley, A. J., and Vitt, F.: Global and regional evolution of
short-lived radiatively-active gases and aerosols in the Representative
Concentration Pathways, Clim. Change, 109, 191–212,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0155-0, 2011. a
Leckebusch, G. C. and Ulbrich, U.: On the relationship between cyclones and
extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change, Global
Planet. Change, 44, 181–193, 2004. a
Leckebusch, G. C., Koffi, B., Ulbrich, U., Pinto, J. G., Spangehl, T., and
Zacharias, S.: Analysis of frequency and intensity of European winter storm
events from a multi-model perspective, at synoptic and regional scales,
Clim. Res., 31, 59–74, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr031059, 2006. a
Madonna, E., Wernli, H., Joos, H., and Martius, O.: Warm conveyor belts in the
ERA-Interim dataset (1979–2010), Part I: Climatology and potential vorticity
evolution, J. Climate, 27, 3–26, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00720.1,
2014. a, b
Marciano, C. G., Lackmann, G. M., and Robinson, W. A.: Changes in US East Coast
cyclone dynamics with climate change, J. Climate, 28, 468–484,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00418.1, 2015. a, b, c
Martin, J. E.: The structure and evolution of a continental winter cyclone.
Part I: Frontal structure and the occlusion process, Mon. Weather Rev.,
126, 303–328, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<0303:TSAEOA>2.0.CO;2, 1998. a
Martínez-Alvarado, O., Gray, S. L., Hart, N. C., Clark, P. A., Hodges, K.,
and Roberts, M. J.: Increased wind risk from sting-jet windstorms with
climate change, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 044002,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaae3a, 2018. a
McTaggart-Cowan, R., Gyakum, J., and Yau, M.: Moist component potential
vorticity, J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 166–177,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2003)060<0166:MCPV>2.0.CO;2, 2003. a
Meinshausen, M., Smith, S. J., Calvin, K., Daniel, J. S., Kainuma, M.,
Lamarque, J.-F., Matsumoto, K., Montzka, S., Raper, S., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Velders, G. J. M., and van Vuuren, D. P. P.:
The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300,
Clim. Change, 109, 213–241, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z, 2011. a
Mölter, T., Schindler, D., Albrecht, A. T., and Kohnle, U.: Review on the
projections of future storminess over the North Atlantic European region,
Atmosphere, 7, 1–60, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos7040060, 2016. a, b
NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research, CESM [data set], https://www.cesm.ucar.edu/models/cesm1.0/, last access: March 2022.
Neu, U., Akperov, M. G., Bellenbaum, N., Benestad, R., Blender, R., Caballero,
R., Cocozza, A., Dacre, H. F., Feng, Y., Fraedrich, K., Grieger J, Gulev S, Hanley, J., Hewson, T., Inatsu, M., Keay, K., Kew, S. F., Kindem, I., Leckebusch, G. C., Liberato, M. L. R., Lionello, P., Mokhov, I. I., Pinto, J. G., Raible, C. C., Reale, M., Rudeva, I., Schuster, M., Simmonds, I., Sinclair, M., Sprenger, M., Tilinina, N. D., Trigo, I. F., Ulbrich, S., Ulbrich, U., Wang, X. L., and Wernli, H.: IMILAST: A
community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking
algorithms, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 94, 529–547,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00154.1, 2013. a, b, c, d
O’Gorman, P. A.: Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm
tracks to climate change, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA,
107, 19176–19180, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1011547107, 2010. a
O’Gorman, P. A. and Schneider, T.: Energy of midlatitude transient eddies in
idealized simulations of changed climates, J. Climate, 21,
5797–5806, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2099.1, 2008. a, b
Pfahl, S. and Sprenger, M.: On the relationship between extratropical cyclone
precipitation and intensity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 1752–1758,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068018, 2016. a
Pfahl, S., Madonna, E., Boettcher, M., Joos, H., and Wernli, H.: Warm conveyor
belts in the ERA-Interim dataset (1979–2010). Part II: Moisture origin and
relevance for precipitation, J. Climate, 27, 27–40,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00223.1, 2014. a
Pinto, J. G. and Ludwig, P.: Extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and western Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum and implications for proxy interpretation, Clim. Past, 16, 611–626, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-611-2020, 2020. a
Pinto, J. G., Zacharias, S., Fink, A. H., Leckebusch, G. C., and Ulbrich, U.:
Factors contributing to the development of extreme North Atlantic cyclones
and their relationship with the NAO, Clim. Dynam., 32, 711–737,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0396-4, 2009. a, b, c
Pinto, J. G., Gómara, I., Masato, G., Dacre, H. F., Woollings, T., and
Caballero, R.: Large-scale dynamics associated with clustering of
extratropical cyclones affecting Western Europe, J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 119, 13–704, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022305, 2014. a
Priestley, M. D. K. and Catto, J. L.: Future changes in the extratropical storm tracks and cyclone intensity, wind speed, and structure, Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-75, in review, 2021. a, b, c
Raible, C. C., Messmer, M., Lehner, F., Stocker, T. F., and Blender, R.: Extratropical cyclone statistics during the last millennium and the 21st century, Clim. Past, 14, 1499–1514, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1499-2018, 2018. a, b, c, d
Rivière, G., Gilet, J.-B., and Oruba, L.: Understanding the regeneration
stage undergone by surface cyclones crossing a midlatitude jet in a two-layer
model, J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 2832–2853,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-12-0345.1, 2013. a
Roberts, J. F., Champion, A. J., Dawkins, L. C., Hodges, K. I., Shaffrey, L. C., Stephenson, D. B., Stringer, M. A., Thornton, H. E., and Youngman, B. D.: The XWS open access catalogue of extreme European windstorms from 1979 to 2012, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2487–2501, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2487-2014, 2014. a
Schneider, T., O'Gorman, P. A., and Levine, X. J.: Water vapor and the dynamics
of climate changes, Rev. Geophys., 48, RG3001, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009RG000302,
2010. a
Shapiro, M. A. and Keyser, D.: Fronts, jet streams and the tropopause, in:
Extratropical cyclones, 167–191, Springer, Boston, MA, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-944970-33-8_10, 1990. a
Slater, T. P., Schultz, D. M., and Vaughan, G.: Acceleration of near-surface
strong winds in a dry, idealised extratropical cyclone, Q. J.
Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 141, 1004–1016, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2417,
2015. a
Slater, T. P., Schultz, D. M., and Vaughan, G.: Near-surface strong winds in a
marine extratropical cyclone: acceleration of the winds and the importance of
surface fluxes, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 143,
321–332, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2924, 2017. a, b
Sprenger, M., Fragkoulidis, G., Binder, H., Croci-Maspoli, M., Graf, P., Grams,
C. M., Knippertz, P., Madonna, E., Schemm, S., Škerlak, B., and Wernli, H.:
Global climatologies of Eulerian and Lagrangian flow features based on
ERA-Interim, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 98, 1739–1748,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00299.1, 2017. a, b
Stoelinga, M. T.: A potential vorticity-based study of the role of diabatic
heating and friction in a numerically simulated baroclinic cyclone, Mon.
Weather Rev., 124, 849–874,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1996)124<0849:APVBSO>2.0.CO;2, 1996. a
Tamarin, T. and Kaspi, Y.: The poleward motion of extratropical cyclones from a
potential vorticity tendency analysis, J. Atmos. Sci.,
73, 1687–1707, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0168.1, 2016. a
Tamarin, T. and Kaspi, Y.: The poleward shift of storm tracks under global
warming: A Lagrangian perspective, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 10–666,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073633, 2017. a, b, c
Teubler, F. and Riemer, M.: Dynamics of Rossby wave packets in a quantitative
potential vorticity–potential temperature framework, J.
Atmos. Sci., 73, 1063–1081, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0162.1, 2016. a
Tochimoto, E. and Niino, H.: Structural and environmental characteristics of
extratropical cyclones that cause tornado outbreaks in the warm sector: A
composite study, Mon. Weather Rev., 144, 945–969,
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0015.1, 2016. a, b, c
Ulbrich, U., Leckebusch, G. C., Grieger, J., Schuster, M., Akperov, M., Bardin,
M. Y., Feng, Y., Gulev, S., Inatsu, M., Keay, K., Kew, S. F., Liberato, M. L. R., Lionello, P., Mokhov, I. I., Neu, U., Pinto, J. G., Raible, C. C., Reale, M., Rudeva, I., Simmonds, I., Tilinina, N. D., Trigo, I. F., Ulbrich, S., Wang, X. L., and Wernli, H.: Are greenhouse gas
signals of Northern Hemisphere winter extra-tropical cyclone activity
dependent on the identification and tracking algorithm?, Meteorol.
Z., 22, 61–68, https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0420, 2013. a, b
Wernli, B. H. and Davies, H. C.: A Lagrangian-based analysis of extratropical
cyclones. I: The method and some applications, Q. J. Roy.
Meteorol. Soc., 123, 467–489, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712353811, 1997. a, b
Wernli, H. and Schwierz, C.: Surface cyclones in the ERA-40 dataset
(1958–2001). Part I: Novel identification method and global climatology,
J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 2486–2507, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3766.1,
2006. a, b
Wernli, H., Dirren, S., Liniger, M. A., and Zillig, M.: Dynamical aspects of
the life cycle of the winter storm “Lothar” (24–26 December 1999),
Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 128,
405–429, https://doi.org/10.1256/003590002321042036, 2002. a
Yettella, V. and Kay, J. E.: How will precipitation change in extratropical
cyclones as the planet warms? Insights from a large initial condition climate
model ensemble, Clim. Dynam., 49, 1765–1781,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3410-2, 2017. a, b, c
Zappa, G., Shaffrey, L. C., Hodges, K. I., Sansom, P. G., and Stephenson,
D. B.: A multimodel assessment of future projections of North Atlantic and
European extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 climate models, J.
Climate, 26, 5846–5862, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00573.1, 2013. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n
Zhang, Z. and Colle, B. A.: Impact of dynamically downscaling two CMIP5 models
on the historical and future changes in winter extratropical cyclones along
the East Coast of North America, J. Climate, 31, 8499–8525,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0178.1, 2018. a, b, c
Short summary
Strong winds caused by extratropical cyclones represent a costly hazard for European countries. Here, based on CESM-LENS coupled climate simulations, we show that future changes of such strong winds are characterized by an increased magnitude and extended footprint southeast of the cyclone center. This intensification is related to a combination of increased diabatic heating and changes in upper-level wave dynamics.
Strong winds caused by extratropical cyclones represent a costly hazard for European countries....
