Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 3, issue 2
Articles | Volume 3, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-645-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-645-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 3, issue 2
Research article
 | 
15 Jun 2022
Research article |  | 15 Jun 2022

Relationship between southern hemispheric jet variability and forced response: the role of the stratosphere

Philipp Breul, Paulo Ceppi, and Theodore G. Shepherd

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Latest update: 27 Oct 2025
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Short summary
Understanding how the mid-latitude jet stream will respond to a changing climate is highly important. Unfortunately, climate models predict a wide variety of possible responses. Theoretical frameworks can link an internal jet variability timescale to its response. However, we show that stratospheric influence approximately doubles the internal timescale, inflating predicted responses. We demonstrate an approach to account for the stratospheric influence and recover correct response predictions.
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