Benefits and challenges of dynamic sea ice for weather forecasts

Day, Jonathan J.; Keeley, Sarah; Arduini, Gabriele; Magnusson, Linus; Mogensen, Kristian; Rodwell, Mark; Sandu, Irina; Tietsche, Steffen

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-713-2022

Articles | Volume 3, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-713-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-713-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 3, issue 3

Research article

|

08 Jul 2022

Research article |

| 08 Jul 2022

Benefits and challenges of dynamic sea ice for weather forecasts

Jonathan J. Day, Sarah Keeley, Gabriele Arduini, Linus Magnusson, Kristian Mogensen, Mark Rodwell, Irina Sandu, and Steffen Tietsche

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-713-2022-supplement

Data sets

High resolution forecast experiment forced by persisted sea ice concentration (APPLICATE) Jonathan Day https://doi.org/10.21957/4vw1-0f68

High resolution forecast experiment with coupled ice-ocean (APPLICATE) Jonathan Day https://doi.org/10.21957/xbe4-6v10

High resolution forecast experiment forced by observed sea ice concentration (APPLICATE) Jonathan Day https://doi.org/10.21957/4r57-jb72

Short summary

A recent drive to develop seamless forecasting systems has culminated in the development of weather forecasting systems that include a coupled representation of the atmosphere, ocean and sea ice. Before this, sea ice and sea surface temperature anomalies were typically fixed throughout a given forecast. We show that the dynamic coupling is most beneficial during periods of rapid ice advance, where persistence is a poor forecast of the sea ice and leads to large errors in the uncoupled system.