Articles | Volume 4, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1071-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1071-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 Dec 2023
Research article |
| 06 Dec 2023
| 06 Dec 2023
How do different pathways connect the stratospheric polar vortex to its tropospheric precursors?
Raphael Harry Köhler
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Dörthe Handorf
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Related authors
Xavier J. Levine, Ryan S. Williams, Gareth Marshall, Andrew Orr, Lise Seland Graff, Dörthe Handorf, Alexey Karpechko, Raphael Köhler, René R. Wijngaard, Nadine Johnston, Hanna Lee, Lars Nieradzik, and Priscilla A. Mooney
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1161–1177, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1161-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
While the most recent climate projections agree that the Arctic is warming, differences remain in how much and in other climate variables such as precipitation. This presents a challenge for stakeholders who need to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. We tackle this problem by using the storyline approach to generate four plausible and actionable realisations of end-of-century climate change for the Arctic, spanning its most likely range of variability.
Johannes Max Müller, Oskar Andreas Landgren, and Dörthe Handorf
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1373, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
Short summary
Short summary
Weather and climate is determined by large-scale air pressure patterns, which can be grouped into a small number of representative patterns. We use two different statistical methods and data from 20 climate models to detect significant changes in a future scenario of strong warming. We focus on the summer season as this is important for both human activities and natural ecosystems. We find an increase in high pressure above Europe and low pressure above the Arctic ocean.
Sina Mehrdad, Dörthe Handorf, Ines Höschel, Khalil Karami, Johannes Quaas, Sudhakar Dipu, and Christoph Jacobi
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1223–1268, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1223-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1223-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study introduces a novel deep learning (DL) approach to analyze how regional radiative forcing in Europe impacts the Arctic climate. By integrating atmospheric poleward energy transport with DL-based clustering of atmospheric patterns and attributing anomalies to specific clusters, our method reveals crucial, nuanced interactions within the climate system, enhancing our understanding of intricate climate dynamics.
Xavier J. Levine, Ryan S. Williams, Gareth Marshall, Andrew Orr, Lise Seland Graff, Dörthe Handorf, Alexey Karpechko, Raphael Köhler, René R. Wijngaard, Nadine Johnston, Hanna Lee, Lars Nieradzik, and Priscilla A. Mooney
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1161–1177, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1161-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
While the most recent climate projections agree that the Arctic is warming, differences remain in how much and in other climate variables such as precipitation. This presents a challenge for stakeholders who need to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. We tackle this problem by using the storyline approach to generate four plausible and actionable realisations of end-of-century climate change for the Arctic, spanning its most likely range of variability.
Falco Monsees, Alexei Rozanov, John P. Burrows, Mark Weber, Annette Rinke, Ralf Jaiser, and Peter von der Gathen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9085–9099, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9085-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9085-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Cyclones strongly influence weather predictability but still cannot be fully characterised in the Arctic because of the sparse coverage of meteorological measurements. A potential approach to compensate for this is the use of satellite measurements of ozone, because cyclones impact the tropopause and therefore also ozone. In this study we used this connection to investigate the correlation between ozone and the tropopause in the Arctic and to identify cyclones with satellite ozone observations.
Olivia Linke, Johannes Quaas, Finja Baumer, Sebastian Becker, Jan Chylik, Sandro Dahlke, André Ehrlich, Dörthe Handorf, Christoph Jacobi, Heike Kalesse-Los, Luca Lelli, Sina Mehrdad, Roel A. J. Neggers, Johannes Riebold, Pablo Saavedra Garfias, Niklas Schnierstein, Matthew D. Shupe, Chris Smith, Gunnar Spreen, Baptiste Verneuil, Kameswara S. Vinjamuri, Marco Vountas, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9963–9992, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9963-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9963-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Lapse rate feedback (LRF) is a major driver of the Arctic amplification (AA) of climate change. It arises because the warming is stronger at the surface than aloft. Several processes can affect the LRF in the Arctic, such as the omnipresent temperature inversion. Here, we compare multimodel climate simulations to Arctic-based observations from a large research consortium to broaden our understanding of these processes, find synergy among them, and constrain the Arctic LRF and AA.
Johannes Riebold, Andy Richling, Uwe Ulbrich, Henning Rust, Tido Semmler, and Dörthe Handorf
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 663–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-663-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Arctic sea ice loss might impact the atmospheric circulation outside the Arctic and therefore extremes over mid-latitudes. Here, we analyze model experiments to initially assess the influence of sea ice loss on occurrence frequencies of large-scale circulation patterns. Some of these detected circulation changes can be linked to changes in occurrences of European temperature extremes. Compared to future global temperature increases, the sea-ice-related impacts are however of secondary relevance.
Daniel Gliksman, Paul Averbeck, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Valeri Goldberg, Jens Grieger, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Alexia Karwat, Florian Knutzen, Hilke S. Lentink, Rike Lorenz, Deborah Niermann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ronald Queck, Astrid Ziemann, and Christian L. E. Franzke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2171–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wind and storms are a major natural hazard and can cause severe economic damage and cost human lives. Hence, it is important to gauge the potential impact of using indices, which potentially enable us to estimate likely impacts of storms or other wind events. Here, we review basic aspects of wind and storm generation and provide an extensive overview of wind impacts and available indices. This is also important to better prepare for future climate change and corresponding changes to winds.
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study was to perform a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. A combination of favorable large-scale conditions and locally dry soils were related with the intensity and persistence of the events. We also showed that such extremes have become more likely due to anthropogenic climate change and might occur almost every year under +2 °C of global warming.
Klaus Dethloff, Wieslaw Maslowski, Stefan Hendricks, Younjoo J. Lee, Helge F. Goessling, Thomas Krumpen, Christian Haas, Dörthe Handorf, Robert Ricker, Vladimir Bessonov, John J. Cassano, Jaclyn Clement Kinney, Robert Osinski, Markus Rex, Annette Rinke, Julia Sokolova, and Anja Sommerfeld
The Cryosphere, 16, 981–1005, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-981-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-981-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sea ice thickness anomalies during the MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) winter in January, February and March 2020 were simulated with the coupled Regional Arctic climate System Model (RASM) and compared with CryoSat-2/SMOS satellite data. Hindcast and ensemble simulations indicate that the sea ice anomalies are driven by nonlinear interactions between ice growth processes and wind-driven sea-ice transports, with dynamics playing a dominant role.
M. Mielke, N. S. Zinoviev, K. Dethloff, A. Rinke, V. J. Kustov, A. P. Makshtas, V. T. Sokolov, R. Neuber, M. Maturilli, D. Klaus, D. Handorf, and J. Graeser
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-11855-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-11855-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Related subject area
Atmospheric teleconnections incl. stratosphere–troposphere coupling
A process-based evaluation of biases in extratropical stratosphere–troposphere coupling in subseasonal forecast systems
The role of the Indian Ocean Dipole in modulating the austral spring ENSO teleconnection to the Southern Hemisphere
Dynamics of stratospheric wave reflection over the North Pacific
Model spread in multidecadal North Atlantic Oscillation variability connected to stratosphere–troposphere coupling
Opposite spectral properties of Rossby waves during weak and strong stratospheric polar vortex events
Stratospheric influence on the winter North Atlantic storm track in subseasonal reforecasts
A critical evaluation of decadal solar cycle imprints in the MiKlip historical ensemble simulations
The teleconnection of extreme El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events to the tropical North Atlantic in coupled climate models
Using large ensembles to quantify the impact of sudden stratospheric warmings and their precursors on the North Atlantic Oscillation
The stratosphere: a review of the dynamics and variability
Stratospheric downward wave reflection events modulate North American weather regimes and cold spells
Modulation of the El Niño teleconnection to the North Atlantic by the tropical North Atlantic during boreal spring and summer
Quantifying stratospheric biases and identifying their potential sources in subseasonal forecast systems
Stratospheric modulation of Arctic Oscillation extremes as represented by extended-range ensemble forecasts
The tropical route of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) teleconnections in a climate model
Decline in Etesian winds after large volcanic eruptions in the last millennium
Stationary wave biases and their effect on upward troposphere– stratosphere coupling in sub-seasonal prediction models
Stratospheric wave driving events as an alternative to sudden stratospheric warmings
Tropical influence on heat-generating atmospheric circulation over Australia strengthens through spring
Sudden stratospheric warmings during El Niño and La Niña: sensitivity to atmospheric model biases
Minimal impact of model biases on Northern Hemisphere El Niño–Southern Oscillation teleconnections
Resampling of ENSO teleconnections: accounting for cold-season evolution reduces uncertainty in the North Atlantic
The wave geometry of final stratospheric warming events
Origins of multi-decadal variability in sudden stratospheric warmings
Tropospheric eddy feedback to different stratospheric conditions in idealised baroclinic life cycles
Impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation on winter precipitations and storm track variability in southeast Canada and the northeast United States
The role of Barents–Kara sea ice loss in projected polar vortex changes
Mechanisms and predictability of sudden stratospheric warming in winter 2018
On the intermittency of orographic gravity wave hotspots and its importance for middle atmosphere dynamics
The role of North Atlantic–European weather regimes in the surface impact of sudden stratospheric warming events
Nonlinearity in the tropospheric pathway of ENSO to the North Atlantic
Chaim I. Garfinkel, Zachary D. Lawrence, Amy H. Butler, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Irene Erner, Alexey Y. Karpechko, Gerbrand Koren, Marta Abalos, Blanca Ayarzagüena, David Barriopedro, Natalia Calvo, Alvaro de la Cámara, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Judah Cohen, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Javier García-Serrano, Neil P. Hindley, Martin Jucker, Hera Kim, Robert W. Lee, Simon H. Lee, Marisol Osman, Froila M. Palmeiro, Inna Polichtchouk, Jian Rao, Jadwiga H. Richter, Chen Schwartz, Seok-Woo Son, Masakazu Taguchi, Nicholas L. Tyrrell, Corwin J. Wright, and Rachel W.-Y. Wu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 171–195, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-171-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-171-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Variability in the extratropical stratosphere and troposphere is coupled, and because of the longer timescales characteristic of the stratosphere, this allows for a window of opportunity for surface prediction. This paper assesses whether models used for operational prediction capture these coupling processes accurately. We find that most processes are too weak; however downward coupling from the lower stratosphere to the near surface is too strong.
Luciano Gustavo Andrian, Marisol Osman, and Carolina Susana Vera
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1505–1522, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1505-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1505-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The interplay between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is well-researched in the tropical Indian Ocean, but their effects on the Southern Hemisphere's extratropical regions during spring are less studied. We show that the positive phase of the IOD can strengthen the El Niño circulation anomalies, heightening their continental impacts. On the other hand, negative IOD combined with La Niña shows less consistent changes among the different methodologies.
Michael K. Schutte, Alice Portal, Simon H. Lee, and Gabriele Messori
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2240, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2240, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large-scale motions in the atmosphere, namely atmospheric waves, greatly impact the weather that we experience at the Earth's surface. Here we investigate how waves in the troposphere (the lower 10 km of the atmosphere) and the stratosphere (above the troposphere) interact to affect surface weather. We find that tropospheric waves that are reflected back down by the stratosphere change weather patterns and temperatures in North America. These changes can indirectly affect the weather in Europe.
Rémy Bonnet, Christine M. McKenna, and Amanda C. Maycock
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 913–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-913-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-913-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models underestimate multidecadal winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability. Understanding the origin of this weak variability is important for making reliable climate projections. We use multi-model climate simulations to explore statistical relationships with drivers that may contribute to NAO variability. We find a relationship between modelled stratosphere–troposphere coupling and multidecadal NAO variability, offering an avenue to improve the simulation of NAO variability.
Michael Schutte, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and Jacopo Riboldi
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 733–752, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-733-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-733-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The winter circulation in the stratosphere, a layer of the Earth’s atmosphere between 10 and 50 km height, is tightly linked to the circulation in the lower atmosphere determining our daily weather. This interconnection happens in the form of waves propagating in and between these two layers. Here, we use space–time spectral analysis to show that disruptions and enhancements of the stratospheric circulation modify the shape and propagation of waves in both layers.
Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Dominik Büeler, C. Ole Wulff, Michael Sprenger, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-231-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-231-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The stratosphere is a layer of Earth's atmosphere found above the weather systems. Changes in the stratosphere can affect the winds and the storm tracks in the North Atlantic region for a relatively long time, lasting for several weeks and even months. We show that the stratosphere can be important for weather forecasts beyond 1 week, but more work is needed to improve the accuracy of these forecasts for 3–4 weeks.
Tobias C. Spiegl, Ulrike Langematz, Holger Pohlmann, and Jürgen Kröger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 789–807, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-789-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the role of the solar cycle in atmospheric domains with the Max Plank Institute Earth System Model in high resolution (MPI-ESM-HR). We focus on the tropical upper stratosphere, Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter dynamics and potential surface imprints. We found robust solar signals at the tropical stratopause and a weak dynamical response in the NH during winter. However, we cannot confirm the importance of the 11-year solar cycle for decadal variability in the troposphere.
Jake W. Casselman, Joke F. Lübbecke, Tobias Bayr, Wenjuan Huo, Sebastian Wahl, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 471–487, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-471-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-471-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has remote effects on the tropical North Atlantic (TNA), but the connections' nonlinearity (strength of response to an increasing ENSO signal) is not always well represented in models. Using the Community Earth System Model version 1 – Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Mode (CESM-WACCM) and the Flexible Ocean and Climate Infrastructure version 1, we find that the TNA responds linearly to extreme El Niño but nonlinearly to extreme La Niña for CESM-WACCM.
Philip E. Bett, Adam A. Scaife, Steven C. Hardiman, Hazel E. Thornton, Xiaocen Shen, Lin Wang, and Bo Pang
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 213–228, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-213-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-213-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Sudden-stratospheric-warming (SSW) events can severely affect the subsequent weather at the surface. We use a large ensemble of climate model hindcasts to investigate features of the climate that make strong impacts more likely through negative NAO conditions. This allows a more robust assessment than using observations alone. Air pressure over the Arctic prior to an SSW and the zonal-mean zonal wind in the lower stratosphere have the strongest relationship with the subsequent NAO response.
Neal Butchart
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1237–1272, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1237-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1237-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In recent years, it has emerged that there is an affinity between stratospheric variability and surface events. Waves from the troposphere interacting with the mean flow drive much of the variability in the polar vortex, sudden stratospheric warmings and tropical quasi-biennial oscillation. Here we review the historical evolution of established knowledge of the stratosphere's global structure and dynamical variability, along with recent advances and theories, and identify outstanding challenges.
Gabriele Messori, Marlene Kretschmer, Simon H. Lee, and Vivien Wendt
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1215–1236, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Over 10 km above the ground, there is a region of the atmosphere called the stratosphere. While there is very little air in the stratosphere itself, its interactions with the lower parts of the atmosphere – where we live – can affect the weather. Here we study a specific example of such an interaction, whereby processes occurring at the boundary of the stratosphere can lead to a continent-wide drop in temperatures in North America during winter.
Jake W. Casselman, Bernat Jiménez-Esteve, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1077–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1077-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1077-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Using an atmospheric general circulation model, we analyze how the tropical North Atlantic influences the El Niño–Southern Oscillation connection towards the North Atlantic European region. We also focus on the lesser-known boreal spring and summer response following an El Niño–Southern Oscillation event. Our results show that altered tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures may cause different responses over the Caribbean region, consequently influencing the North Atlantic European region.
Zachary D. Lawrence, Marta Abalos, Blanca Ayarzagüena, David Barriopedro, Amy H. Butler, Natalia Calvo, Alvaro de la Cámara, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Javier García-Serrano, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Neil P. Hindley, Liwei Jia, Martin Jucker, Alexey Y. Karpechko, Hera Kim, Andrea L. Lang, Simon H. Lee, Pu Lin, Marisol Osman, Froila M. Palmeiro, Judith Perlwitz, Inna Polichtchouk, Jadwiga H. Richter, Chen Schwartz, Seok-Woo Son, Irene Erner, Masakazu Taguchi, Nicholas L. Tyrrell, Corwin J. Wright, and Rachel W.-Y. Wu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 977–1001, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Forecast models that are used to predict weather often struggle to represent the Earth’s stratosphere. This may impact their ability to predict surface weather weeks in advance, on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales. We use data from many S2S forecast systems to characterize and compare the stratospheric biases present in such forecast models. These models have many similar stratospheric biases, but they tend to be worse in systems with low model tops located within the stratosphere.
Jonas Spaeth and Thomas Birner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 883–903, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-883-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-883-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Past research has demonstrated robust stratosphere–troposphere dynamical coupling following stratospheric circulation extremes. Here, we use a large set of extended-range ensemble forecasts to robustly quantify the increased risk for tropospheric circulation extremes following stratospheric extreme events. In particular, we provide estimates of the fraction of tropospheric extremes that may be attributable to preceding stratospheric extremes.
Jorge L. García-Franco, Lesley J. Gray, Scott Osprey, Robin Chadwick, and Zane Martin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 825–844, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-825-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-825-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper establishes robust links between the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and several features of tropical climate. Robust precipitation responses, as well as changes to the Walker circulation, were found to be robustly linked to the variability in the lower stratosphere associated with the QBO using a 500-year simulation of a state-of-the-art climate model.
Stergios Misios, Ioannis Logothetis, Mads F. Knudsen, Christoffer Karoff, Vassilis Amiridis, and Kleareti Tourpali
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 811–823, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-811-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-811-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the impact of strong volcanic eruptions on the northerly Etesian winds blowing in the eastern Mediterranean. Μodel simulations of the last millennium demonstrate a robust reduction in the total number of days with Etesian winds in the post-eruption summers. The decline in the Etesian winds is attributed to a weakened Indian summer monsoon in the post-eruption summer. These findings could improve seasonal predictions of the wind circulation in the eastern Mediterranean.
Chen Schwartz, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Priyanka Yadav, Wen Chen, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 679–692, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-679-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-679-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Eleven operational forecast models that run on subseasonal timescales (up to 2 months) are examined to assess errors in their simulated large-scale stationary waves in the Northern Hemisphere winter. We found that models with a more finely resolved stratosphere generally do better in simulating the waves in both the stratosphere (10–50 km) and troposphere below. Moreover, a connection exists between errors in simulated time-mean convection in tropical regions and errors in the simulated waves.
Thomas Reichler and Martin Jucker
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 659–677, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-659-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-659-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Variations in the stratospheric polar vortex, so-called vortex events, can improve predictions of surface weather and climate. There are various ways to detect such events, and here we use the amount of wave energy that propagates into the stratosphere. The new definition is tested against so-called stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs). We find that the wave definition has advantages over SSWs, for example in terms of a stronger surface response that follows the events.
Roseanna C. McKay, Julie M. Arblaster, and Pandora Hope
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 413–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-413-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding what makes it hot in Australia in spring helps us better prepare for harmful impacts. We look at how the higher latitudes and tropics change the atmospheric circulation from early to late spring and how that changes maximum temperatures in Australia. We find that the relationship between maximum temperatures and the tropics is stronger in late spring than early spring. These findings could help improve forecasts of hot months in Australia in spring.
Nicholas L. Tyrrell, Juho M. Koskentausta, and Alexey Yu. Karpechko
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 45–58, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-45-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-45-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
El Niño events are known to effect the variability of the wintertime stratospheric polar vortex. The observed relationship differs from what is seen in climate models. Climate models have errors in their average winds and temperature, and in this work we artificially reduce those errors to see how that changes the communication of El Niño events to the polar stratosphere. We find reducing errors improves stratospheric variability, but does not explain the differences with observations.
Nicholas L. Tyrrell and Alexey Yu. Karpechko
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 913–925, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-913-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-913-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (El Niño) affect the global climate. The Pacific-to-Europe connection relies on interactions of large atmospheric waves with winds and surface pressure. We looked at how mean errors in a climate model affect its ability to simulate the Pacific-to-Europe connection. We found that even large errors in the seasonal winds did not affect the response of the model to an El Niño event, which is good news for seasonal forecasts which rely on these connections.
Martin P. King, Camille Li, and Stefan Sobolowski
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 759–776, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-759-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-759-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We re-examine the uncertainty of ENSO teleconnection to the North Atlantic by considering the November–December and January–February months in the cold season, in addition to the conventional DJF months. This is motivated by previous studies reporting varying teleconnected atmospheric anomalies and the mechanisms concerned. Our results indicate an improved confidence in the patterns of the teleconnection. The finding may also have implications on research in predictability and climate impact.
Amy H. Butler and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 453–474, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-453-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-453-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We classify by wave geometry the stratospheric polar vortex during the final warming that occurs every spring in both hemispheres due to a combination of radiative and dynamical processes. We show that the shape of the vortex, as well as the timing of the seasonal transition, is linked to total column ozone prior to and surface weather following the final warming. These results have implications for prediction and our understanding of stratosphere–troposphere coupling processes in springtime.
Oscar Dimdore-Miles, Lesley Gray, and Scott Osprey
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 205–231, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-205-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-205-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Observations of the stratosphere span roughly half a century, preventing analysis of multi-decadal variability in circulation using these data. Instead, we rely on long simulations of climate models. Here, we use a model to examine variations in northern polar stratospheric winds and find they vary with a period of around 90 years. We show that this is possibly due to variations in the size of winds over the Equator. This result may improve understanding of Equator–polar stratospheric coupling.
Philip Rupp and Thomas Birner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 111–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-111-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-111-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use the simple framework of an idealised baroclinic life cycle to study the tropospheric eddy feedback to different stratospheric conditions and, hence, obtain insights into the fundamental processes of stratosphere–troposphere coupling – in particular, the processes involved in creating the robust equatorward shift in the tropospheric mid-latitude jet that has been observed following sudden stratospheric warming events.
Julien Chartrand and Francesco S. R. Pausata
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 731–744, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-731-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-731-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the winter climate of eastern North America using reanalysis data. Results show that negative phases are linked with an increase in frequency of winter storms developing on the east coast of the United States, resulting in much heavier snowfall over the eastern United States. On the contrary, an increase in cyclone activity over southeastern Canada results in slightly heavier precipitation during positive phases.
Marlene Kretschmer, Giuseppe Zappa, and Theodore G. Shepherd
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 715–730, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-715-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-715-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The winds in the polar stratosphere affect the weather in the mid-latitudes, making it important to understand potential changes in response to global warming. However, climate model projections disagree on how this so-called polar vortex will change in the future. Here we show that sea ice loss in the Barents and Kara (BK) seas plays a central role in this. The time when the BK seas become ice-free differs between models, which explains some of the disagreement regarding vortex projections.
Irene Erner, Alexey Y. Karpechko, and Heikki J. Järvinen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 657–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-657-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-657-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we investigate the role of the tropospheric forcing in the occurrence of the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) that took place in February 2018, its predictability and teleconnection with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) by analysing the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble forecast. The purpose of the paper is to present the results of the analysis of the atmospheric circulation before and during the SSW and clarify the driving mechanisms.
Ales Kuchar, Petr Sacha, Roland Eichinger, Christoph Jacobi, Petr Pisoft, and Harald E. Rieder
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 481–495, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-481-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-481-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Our study focuses on the impact of topographic structures such as the Himalayas and Rocky Mountains, so-called orographic gravity-wave hotspots. These hotspots play an important role in the dynamics of the middle atmosphere, in particular in the lower stratosphere. We study intermittency and zonally asymmetric character of these hotspots and their effects on the upper stratosphere and mesosphere using a new detection method in various modeling and observational datasets.
Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Christian M. Grams, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 373–388, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We cannot currently predict the weather over Europe beyond 2 weeks. The stratosphere provides a promising opportunity to go beyond that limit by providing a change in probability of certain weather regimes at the surface. However, not all stratospheric extreme events are followed by the same surface weather evolution. We show that this weather evolution is related to the tropospheric weather regime around the onset of the stratospheric extreme event for many stratospheric events.
Bernat Jiménez-Esteve and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 225–245, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-225-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-225-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric predictability over Europe on subseasonal to seasonal timescales remains limited. However, the remote impact from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can help to improve predictability. Research has suggested that the ENSO impact in the North Atlantic region is affected by nonlinearities. Here, we isolate the nonlinearities in the tropospheric pathway through the North Pacific, finding that a strong El Niño leads to a stronger and distinct impact compared to a strong La Niña.
Cited articles
Afargan-Gerstman, H. and Domeisen, D. I. V.: Pacific modulation of the North Atlantic storm track response to sudden stratospheric warming events, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL085007, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085007, 2020. a
Andrews, D. G. and Mcintyre, M. E.: Planetary waves in horizontal and vertical shear: The generalized Eliassen-Palm relation and the mean zonal acceleration, J. Atmos. Sci., 33, 2031–2048, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1976)033<2031:PWIHAV>2.0.CO;2, 1976. a, b
Baldwin, M. P. and Dunkerton, T. J.: Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes, Science, 294, 581–584, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1063315, 2001. a, b
Baldwin, M. P. and Thompson, D. W. J.: A critical comparison of stratosphere–troposphere coupling indices, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society: A journal of the atmospheric sciences, Appl. Meteorol. Phys. Oceanogr., 135, 1661–1672, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.479, 2009. a
Baldwin, M. P., Stephenson, D. B., and Jolliffe, I. T.: Spatial weighting and iterative projection methods for EOFs, J. Climate, 22, 234–243, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2147.1, 2009. a
Baldwin, M. P., Birner, T., Brasseur, G., Burrows, J., Butchart, N., Garcia, R., Geller, M., Gray, L., Hamilton, K., Harnik, N., Hegglin, M. I., Langematz, U., Robock, A., Sato, K., and Scaife, A. A.: 100 years of progress in understanding the stratosphere and mesosphere, Meteorol. Monogr., 59, 27.1–27.62, https://doi.org/10.1175/AMSMONOGRAPHS-D-19-0003.1, 2019. a
Baldwin, M. P., Ayarzagüena, B., Birner, T., Butchart, N., Butler, A. H., Charlton-Perez, A. J., Domeisen, D. I. V., Garfinkel, C. I., Garny, H., Gerber, E. P., Hegglin, M. I., Langematz, U., and Pedatella, N. M.: Sudden stratospheric warmings, Rev. Geophys., 59, e2020RG000708, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000708, 2021. a, b, c
Bao, M., Tan, X., Hartmann, D. L., and Ceppi, P.: Classifying the tropospheric precursor patterns of sudden stratospheric warmings, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 8011–8016, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074611, 2017. a, b
Bauer, D. F.: Constructing confidence sets using rank statistics, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 67, 687–690, https://doi.org/10.2307/2284469, 1972. a
Birner, T. and Albers, J. R.: Sudden stratospheric warmings and anomalous upward wave activity flux, Sola, 13, 8–12, https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.13A-002, 2017. a
Butchart, N.: The stratosphere: a review of the dynamics and variability, Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1237–1272, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1237-2022, 2022. a
Campitelli, E.: metR: Tools for Easier Analysis of Meteorological Fields, r package version 0.14.0, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2593516, 2021. a
Charlton-Perez, A. J., Ferranti, L., and Lee, R. W.: The influence of the stratospheric state on North Atlantic weather regimes, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 144, 1140–1151, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3280, 2018. a
Charney, J. G. and Drazin, P. G.: Propagation of planetary-scale disturbances from the lower into the upper atmosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 66, 83–109, https://doi.org/10.1029/JZ066i001p00083, 1961. a
Chwat, D., Garfinkel, C. I., Chen, W., and Rao, J.: Which Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events Are Most Predictable?, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 127, e2022JD037521, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037521, 2022. a
Cohen, J. and Jones, J.: Tropospheric precursors and stratospheric warmings, J. Climate, 24, 6562–6572, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4160.1, 2011. a, b
Cohen, J., Zhang, X., Francis, J., Jung, T., Kwok, R., Overland, J., Ballinger, T. J., Bhatt, U. S., Chen, H. W., Coumou, D., Feldstein, S., Gu, H., Handorf, D., Henderson, G., Ionita, M., Kretschmer, M., Laliberte, F., Lee, S., Linderholm, H. W., Maslowski, W., Peings, Y., Pfeiffer, K., Rigor, I., Semmler, T., Stroeve, J., Taylor, P. C., Vavrus, S., Vihma, T., Wang, S., Wendisch, M., Wu, Y., and Yoon, J.: Divergent consensuses on Arctic amplification influence on midlatitude severe winter weather, Nat. Clim. Change, 10, 20–29, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0662-y, 2020. a
Crasemann, B., Handorf, D., Jaiser, R., Dethloff, K., Nakamura, T., Ukita, J., and Yamazaki, K.: Can preferred atmospheric circulation patterns over the North-Atlantic-Eurasian region be associated with arctic sea ice loss?, Polar Sci., 14, 9–20, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polar.2017.09.002, 2017. a, b
Domeisen, D. I., Garfinkel, C. I., and Butler, A. H.: The teleconnection of El Niño Southern Oscillation to the stratosphere, Rev. Geophys., 57, 5–47, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018RG000596, 2019. a
Domeisen, D. I. V., Butler, A. H., Charlton-Perez, A. J., Ayarzagüena, B., Baldwin, M. P., Dunn-Sigouin, E., Furtado, J. C., Garfinkel, C. I., Hitchcock, P., Karpechko, A. Y., Kim, H., Knight, J., Lang, A. L., Lim, E.-P., Marshall, A., Roff, G., Schwartz, C., Simpson, I. R., Son, S.-W., and Taguchi, M.: The role of the stratosphere in subseasonal to seasonal prediction: 2. Predictability arising from stratosphere-troposphere coupling, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2019JD030923, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030920, 2020a. a, b
Domeisen, D. I. V., Butler, A. H., Charlton-Perez, A. J., Ayarzagüena, B., Baldwin, M. P., Dunn-Sigouin, E., Furtado, J. C., Garfinkel, C. I., Hitchcock, P., Karpechko, A. Y., Kim, H., Knight, J., Lang, A. L., Lim, E.-P., Marshall, A., Roff, G., Schwartz, C., Simpson, I. R., Son, S.-W., and Taguchi, M.: The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 1. Predictability of the Stratosphere, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2019JD030920, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030920, 2020b. a, b
Durack, P. J. and Taylor, K. E.: PCMDI AMIP SST and sea-ice boundary conditions version 1.1.4, ESGF, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/input4MIPs.2204, 2018. a
Garfinkel, C. I., Hartmann, D. L., and Sassi, F.: Tropospheric precursors of anomalous Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortices, J. Climate, 23, 3282–3299, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3010.1, 2010. a, b, c, d
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47, 2023. a
Hollander, M., Wolfe, D. A., and Chicken, E.: Nonparametric statistical methods, in: vol. 751, John Wiley & Sons, https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119196037, 2014. a
Hoshi, K., Ukita, J., Honda, M., Nakamura, T., Yamazaki, K., Miyoshi, Y., and Jaiser, R.: Weak stratospheric polar vortex events modulated by the Arctic sea-ice loss, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 858–869, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029222, 2019. a
Ineson, S. and Scaife, A. A.: The role of the stratosphere in the European climate response to El Niño, Nat. Geosci., 2, 32–36, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo381, 2009. a, b
Jaiser, R., Nakamura, T., Handorf, D., Dethloff, K., Ukita, J., and Yamazaki, K.: Atmospheric winter response to Arctic sea ice changes in reanalysis data and model simulations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 7564–7577, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024679, 2016. a, b
Jaiser, R., Akperov, M., Timazhev, A., Romanowsky, E., Handorf, D., and Mokhov, I.: Linkages between Arctic and Mid-Latitude Weather and Climate: Unraveling the Impact of Changing Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperatures during Winter, Meteorol. Z., 32, 173–194, https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2023/1154, 2023. a
Jucker, M.: mjucker/aostools: v2.3.2, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4588067, 2021. a
Karpechko, A. Y.: Predictability of sudden stratospheric warmings in the ECMWF extended-range forecast system, Mon. Weather Rev., 146, 1063–1075, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0317.1, 2018. a
Köhler, R.: Seasonal climatology with the atmosphere model ICON-NWP, DOKU at DKRZ [data st], https://hdl.handle.net/21.14106/c815f7268f7156a7d7cd59099f6413db2f263943 (last accessed: 4 December 2023), 2023. a
Köhler, R., Handorf, D., Jaiser, R., Dethloff, K., Zängl, G., Majewski, D., and Rex, M.: Improved Circulation in the Northern Hemisphere by Adjusting Gravity Wave Drag Parameterizations in Seasonal Experiments With ICON-NWP, Earth Space Sci., 8, e2021EA001676, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EA001676, 2021. a, b, c, d, e, f
Kretschmer, M., Runge, J., and Coumou, D.: Early prediction of extreme stratospheric polar vortex states based on causal precursors, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 8592–8600, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074696, 2017. a
Matsuno, T.: A dynamical model of the stratospheric sudden warming, J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 1479–1494, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1971)028<1479:ADMOTS>2.0.CO;2, 1971. a, b, c
MPI: ICON: Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Weather and Climate Model, https://code.mpimet.mpg.de/projects/iconpublic (last access: 5 December 2023), 2023. a
Overland, J. E., Dethloff, K., Francis, J. A., Hall, R. J., Hanna, E., Kim, S.-J., Screen, J. A., Shepherd, T. G., and Vihma, T.: Nonlinear response of mid-latitude weather to the changing Arctic, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 992–999, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3121, 2016. a
Polvani, L. M. and Waugh, D. W.: Upward wave activity flux as a precursor to extreme stratospheric events and subsequent anomalous surface weather regimes, J. Climate, 17, 3548–3554, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<3548:UWAFAA>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a
Scaife, A. A., Karpechko, A. Y., Baldwin, M. P., Brookshaw, A., Butler, A. H., Eade, R., Gordon, M., MacLachlan, C., Martin, N., Dunstone, N., and Smith, R.: Seasonal winter forecasts and the stratosphere, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 17, 51–56, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.598, 2016. a
Siew, P. Y. F., Li, C., Sobolowski, S. P., and King, M. P.: Intermittency of Arctic–mid-latitude teleconnections: stratospheric pathway between autumn sea ice and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation, Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 261–275, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-261-2020, 2020. a
Smith, K. L. and Kushner, P. J.: Linear interference and the initiation of extratropical stratosphere-troposphere interactions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, D13107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017587, 2012. a, b
Wald, A.: Tests of statistical hypotheses concerning several parameters when the number of observations is large, Trans. Am. Math. Soc., 54, 426–482, 1943. a
Wallace, J. M. and Gutzler, D. S.: Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter, Mon. Weather Rev., 109, 784–812, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1991)004<0517:TPATPA>2.0.CO;2, 1981. a
Zängl, G., Reinert, D., Rípodas, P., and Baldauf, M.: The ICON (ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic) modelling framework of DWD and MPI-M: Description of the non-hydrostatic dynamical core, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 141, 563–579, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2378, 2015. a, b
Short summary
This study explores the local mechanisms of troposphere–stratosphere coupling on seasonal timescales during extended winter in the Northern Hemisphere. The detected tropospheric precursor regions exhibit very distinct mechanisms of coupling to the stratosphere, thus highlighting the importance of the time- and zonally resolved picture. Moreover, this study demonstrates that the ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic atmosphere model (ICON) can realistically reproduce troposphere–stratosphere coupling.
This study explores the local mechanisms of troposphere–stratosphere coupling on seasonal...
