Articles | Volume 4, issue 4
Research article
09 Oct 2023
Research article |  | 09 Oct 2023

Predictable decadal forcing of the North Atlantic jet speed by sub-polar North Atlantic sea surface temperatures

Kristian Strommen, Tim Woollings, Paolo Davini, Paolo Ruggieri, and Isla R. Simpson

Data sets

Initialised seasonal forecast of the 20th Century A. Weisheimer and C. O'Reilly

Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble Project S. Yeager

Short summary
We present evidence which strongly suggests that decadal variations in the intensity of the North Atlantic winter jet stream can be predicted by current forecast models but that decadal variations in its position appear to be unpredictable. It is argued that this skill at predicting jet intensity originates from the slow, predictable variability in sea surface temperatures in the sub-polar North Atlantic.