Predictable decadal forcing of the North Atlantic jet speed  by sub-polar North Atlantic sea surface temperatures

Strommen, Kristian; Woollings, Tim; Davini, Paolo; Ruggieri, Paolo; Simpson, Isla R.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-853-2023

Articles | Volume 4, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-853-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-853-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 4, issue 4

Research article

|

09 Oct 2023

Research article |

| 09 Oct 2023

Predictable decadal forcing of the North Atlantic jet speed by sub-polar North Atlantic sea surface temperatures

Kristian Strommen, Tim Woollings, Paolo Davini, Paolo Ruggieri, and Isla R. Simpson

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-853-2023-supplement

Data sets

Initialised seasonal forecast of the 20th Century A. Weisheimer and C. O'Reilly https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/6e1c3df49f644a0f812818080bed5e45

Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble Project S. Yeager https://doi.org/10.5065/D6DR2T8H

Short summary

We present evidence which strongly suggests that decadal variations in the intensity of the North Atlantic winter jet stream can be predicted by current forecast models but that decadal variations in its position appear to be unpredictable. It is argued that this skill at predicting jet intensity originates from the slow, predictable variability in sea surface temperatures in the sub-polar North Atlantic.