Articles | Volume 4, issue 4
Research article
09 Oct 2023
Research article |  | 09 Oct 2023

Predictable decadal forcing of the North Atlantic jet speed by sub-polar North Atlantic sea surface temperatures

Kristian Strommen, Tim Woollings, Paolo Davini, Paolo Ruggieri, and Isla R. Simpson

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Cited articles

Athanasiadis, P. J., Yeager, S., Kwon, Y.-O., Bellucci, A., Smith, D. W., and Tibaldi, S.: Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the NAO, NPJ Clim. Atmos. Sci., 3, 1–10, 2020. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Baker, H. S., Woollings, T., and Mbengue, C.: Eddy-driven jet sensitivity to diabatic heating in an idealized GCM, J. Climate, 30, 6413–6431, 2017. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Baker, H. S., Woollings, T., Forest, C. E., and Allen, M. R.: The linear sensitivity of the North Atlantic Oscillation and eddy-driven jet to SSTs, J. Climate, 32, 6491–6511, 2019. a, b
Barrier, N., Cassou, C., Deshayes, J., and Treguier, A.-M.: Response of North Atlantic Ocean circulation to atmospheric weather regimes, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 44, 179–201, 2014. a
Bellomo, K., Murphy, L. N., Cane, M. A., Clement, A. C., and Polvani, L. M.: Historical forcings as main drivers of the Atlantic multidecadal variability in the CESM large ensemble, Clim. Dynam., 50, 3687–3698, 2018. a
Short summary
We present evidence which strongly suggests that decadal variations in the intensity of the North Atlantic winter jet stream can be predicted by current forecast models but that decadal variations in its position appear to be unpredictable. It is argued that this skill at predicting jet intensity originates from the slow, predictable variability in sea surface temperatures in the sub-polar North Atlantic.