Articles | Volume 4, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-95-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-95-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review article
| Highlight paper
| 
18 Jan 2023
Review article | Highlight paper |
| 18 Jan 2023
| 18 Jan 2023
Reconciling conflicting evidence for the cause of the observed early 21st century Eurasian cooling
Climate Dynamics and Prediction, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Camille Li
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Martin P. King
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Climate & Environment, NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Lingling Suo
Climate Dynamics and Prediction, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Peter Y. F. Siew
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Hoffman Cheung
School of Atmospheric Sciences & Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai, China
Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, China
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Richard Davy
Climate Dynamics and Prediction, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Etienne Dunn-Sigouin
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Tore Furevik
Climate Dynamics and Prediction, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Shengping He
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Erica Madonna
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Stefan Sobolowski
Climate & Environment, NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Thomas Spengler
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Tim Woollings
Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
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Cited
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change? S. Sippel et al. 10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024
- Response of winter climate and extreme weather to projected Arctic sea-ice loss in very large-ensemble climate model simulations K. Ye et al. 10.1038/s41612-023-00562-5
- From peak to plummet: impending decline of the warm Arctic-cold continents phenomenon Y. Hong et al. 10.1038/s41612-024-00611-7
- Diagnosing observed extratropical stationary wave changes in boreal winter W. Sun & L. Wang 10.1088/1748-9326/acfb99
- Warm Arctic-cold Eurasia pattern driven by atmospheric blocking in models and observations Z. Kaufman et al. 10.1088/2752-5295/ad1f40
- Arctic climate response to European radiative forcing: a deep learning study on circulation pattern changes S. Mehrdad et al. 10.5194/wcd-5-1223-2024
- Arctic Warming and Eurasian Cooling: Weakening and Reemergence X. Xu et al. 10.1029/2023GL105180
- Evaluating Causal Arctic‐Midlatitude Teleconnections in CMIP6 E. Galytska et al. 10.1029/2022JD037978
- Interdecadal variability of the warm Arctic-cold Eurasia: synergetic modulation by the Arctic Oscillation and Barents sea ice Y. Luo et al. 10.1007/s00382-024-07286-z
- Circulation responses to surface heating and implications for polar amplification P. Siew et al. 10.5194/wcd-5-985-2024
- When and How Can the Stratosphere Modify the Midlatitude Cold Air Outbreaks in Northern Winter: An Isentropic Meridional Mass Circulation View Y. Yu et al. 10.1029/2023JD038601
- Modulation of the impact of winter-mean warm Arctic-cold Eurasia pattern on Eurasian cold extremes by the subseasonal variability S. Wang et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad2caf
- Decadal prediction skill for Eurasian surface air temperature in CMIP6 models Y. Huang et al. 10.1016/j.aosl.2023.100377
- Relative Impacts of Sea Ice Loss and Atmospheric Internal Variability on the Winter Arctic to East Asian Surface Air Temperature Based on Large-Ensemble Simulations with NorESM2 S. He et al. 10.1007/s00376-023-3006-9
- The linkage between autumn Barents-Kara sea ice and European cold winter extremes D. Cai et al. 10.3389/fclim.2024.1345763
- CMIP6 near-term and long-term projections of Eurasian winter cooling trend and cold extremes X. Xu et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7307
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change? S. Sippel et al. 10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024
- Response of winter climate and extreme weather to projected Arctic sea-ice loss in very large-ensemble climate model simulations K. Ye et al. 10.1038/s41612-023-00562-5
- From peak to plummet: impending decline of the warm Arctic-cold continents phenomenon Y. Hong et al. 10.1038/s41612-024-00611-7
- Diagnosing observed extratropical stationary wave changes in boreal winter W. Sun & L. Wang 10.1088/1748-9326/acfb99
- Warm Arctic-cold Eurasia pattern driven by atmospheric blocking in models and observations Z. Kaufman et al. 10.1088/2752-5295/ad1f40
- Arctic climate response to European radiative forcing: a deep learning study on circulation pattern changes S. Mehrdad et al. 10.5194/wcd-5-1223-2024
- Arctic Warming and Eurasian Cooling: Weakening and Reemergence X. Xu et al. 10.1029/2023GL105180
- Evaluating Causal Arctic‐Midlatitude Teleconnections in CMIP6 E. Galytska et al. 10.1029/2022JD037978
- Interdecadal variability of the warm Arctic-cold Eurasia: synergetic modulation by the Arctic Oscillation and Barents sea ice Y. Luo et al. 10.1007/s00382-024-07286-z
- Circulation responses to surface heating and implications for polar amplification P. Siew et al. 10.5194/wcd-5-985-2024
- When and How Can the Stratosphere Modify the Midlatitude Cold Air Outbreaks in Northern Winter: An Isentropic Meridional Mass Circulation View Y. Yu et al. 10.1029/2023JD038601
- Modulation of the impact of winter-mean warm Arctic-cold Eurasia pattern on Eurasian cold extremes by the subseasonal variability S. Wang et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad2caf
- Decadal prediction skill for Eurasian surface air temperature in CMIP6 models Y. Huang et al. 10.1016/j.aosl.2023.100377
- Relative Impacts of Sea Ice Loss and Atmospheric Internal Variability on the Winter Arctic to East Asian Surface Air Temperature Based on Large-Ensemble Simulations with NorESM2 S. He et al. 10.1007/s00376-023-3006-9
- The linkage between autumn Barents-Kara sea ice and European cold winter extremes D. Cai et al. 10.3389/fclim.2024.1345763
- CMIP6 near-term and long-term projections of Eurasian winter cooling trend and cold extremes X. Xu et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7307
Latest update: 18 Nov 2024
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Executive editor
This paper analyses the extensive scientific debate around the potential influence of Arctic warming and sea ice loss on recent cooling trends over the Eurasian continent. It provides a novel, holistic perspective on this debate that goes beyond a simple yes or no answer to the question whether a causal link exists between these two phenomena. As such, it has the potential to bring together seemingly diverging portrayals existing in the literature.
This paper analyses the extensive scientific debate around the potential influence of Arctic...
Short summary
Strong disagreement exists in the scientific community over the role of Arctic sea ice in shaping wintertime Eurasian cooling. The observed Eurasian cooling can arise naturally without sea-ice loss but is expected to be a rare event. We propose a framework that incorporates sea-ice retreat and natural variability as contributing factors. A helpful analogy is of a dice roll that may result in cooling, warming, or anything in between, with sea-ice loss acting to load the dice in favour of cooling.
Strong disagreement exists in the scientific community over the role of Arctic sea ice in...
