Articles | Volume 4, issue 1
Review article
 | Highlight paper
18 Jan 2023
Review article | Highlight paper |  | 18 Jan 2023

Reconciling conflicting evidence for the cause of the observed early 21st century Eurasian cooling

Stephen Outten, Camille Li, Martin P. King, Lingling Suo, Peter Y. F. Siew, Hoffman Cheung, Richard Davy, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Tore Furevik, Shengping He, Erica Madonna, Stefan Sobolowski, Thomas Spengler, and Tim Woollings


Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on wcd-2022-32', Judah Cohen, 08 Jul 2022
  • CC1: 'Comment on wcd-2022-32', Dehai Luo, 14 Jul 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on CC1', Stephen Outten, 29 Aug 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on wcd-2022-32', Anonymous Referee #2, 14 Jul 2022
  • RC3: 'Comment on wcd-2022-32', Anonymous Referee #3, 20 Jul 2022
  • AC1: 'Final Author Comments on wcd-2022-32', Stephen Outten, 26 Aug 2022

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
AR by Stephen Outten on behalf of the Authors (11 Oct 2022)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (26 Oct 2022) by Thomas Birner
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (10 Nov 2022)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (17 Nov 2022) by Thomas Birner
AR by Stephen Outten on behalf of the Authors (24 Nov 2022)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (29 Nov 2022) by Thomas Birner
AR by Stephen Outten on behalf of the Authors (14 Dec 2022)
Executive editor
This paper analyses the extensive scientific debate around the potential influence of Arctic warming and sea ice loss on recent cooling trends over the Eurasian continent. It provides a novel, holistic perspective on this debate that goes beyond a simple yes or no answer to the question whether a causal link exists between these two phenomena. As such, it has the potential to bring together seemingly diverging portrayals existing in the literature.
Short summary
Strong disagreement exists in the scientific community over the role of Arctic sea ice in shaping wintertime Eurasian cooling. The observed Eurasian cooling can arise naturally without sea-ice loss but is expected to be a rare event. We propose a framework that incorporates sea-ice retreat and natural variability as contributing factors. A helpful analogy is of a dice roll that may result in cooling, warming, or anything in between, with sea-ice loss acting to load the dice in favour of cooling.