European summer weather linked to North Atlantic  freshwater anomalies in preceding years

Oltmanns, Marilena; Holliday, N. Penny; Screen, James; Moat, Ben I.; Josey, Simon A.; Evans, D. Gwyn; Bacon, Sheldon

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-109-2024

Articles | Volume 5, issue 1

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-109-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-109-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 5, issue 1

Research article

|

28 Feb 2024

Research article |

| 28 Feb 2024

European summer weather linked to North Atlantic freshwater anomalies in preceding years

Marilena Oltmanns, N. Penny Holliday, James Screen, Ben I. Moat, Simon A. Josey, D. Gwyn Evans, and Sheldon Bacon

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-109-2024-supplement

Data sets

Merged Hadley-OI sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration data set D. Shea et al. https://doi.org/10.5065/r33v-sv91

lobal Ocean Gridded L4 Sea Surface Heights And Derived Variables Reprocessed 1993 Ongoing Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00148

ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1979 to present H. Hersbach et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47

Short summary

The melting of land ice and sea ice leads to freshwater input into the ocean. Based on observations, we show that stronger freshwater anomalies in the subpolar North Atlantic in winter are followed by warmer and drier weather over Europe in summer. The identified link indicates an enhanced predictability of European summer weather at least a winter in advance. It further suggests that warmer and drier summers over Europe can become more frequent under increased freshwater fluxes in the future.