Articles | Volume 5, issue 1
Research article
28 Feb 2024
Research article |  | 28 Feb 2024

European summer weather linked to North Atlantic freshwater anomalies in preceding years

Marilena Oltmanns, N. Penny Holliday, James Screen, Ben I. Moat, Simon A. Josey, D. Gwyn Evans, and Sheldon Bacon

Data sets

Merged Hadley-OI sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration data set D. Shea et al.

lobal Ocean Gridded L4 Sea Surface Heights And Derived Variables Reprocessed 1993 Ongoing Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service

ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1979 to present H. Hersbach et al.

Short summary
The melting of land ice and sea ice leads to freshwater input into the ocean. Based on observations, we show that stronger freshwater anomalies in the subpolar North Atlantic in winter are followed by warmer and drier weather over Europe in summer. The identified link indicates an enhanced predictability of European summer weather at least a winter in advance. It further suggests that warmer and drier summers over Europe can become more frequent under increased freshwater fluxes in the future.