Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 5, issue 4
Articles | Volume 5, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1287-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1287-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 5, issue 4
Research article
 | 
17 Oct 2024
Research article |  | 17 Oct 2024

The impact of synoptic storm likelihood on European subseasonal forecast uncertainty and their modulation by the stratosphere

Philip Rupp, Jonas Spaeth, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Dominik Büeler, Michael Sprenger, and Thomas Birner

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Latest update: 03 Nov 2025
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Short summary
We quantify the occurrence of strong synoptic storms as contributing about 20 % to the uncertainty of subseasonal geopotential height forecasts over northern Europe. We further show that North Atlantic storms are less frequent, weaker and shifted southward following sudden stratospheric warming events, leading to a reduction in northern European forecast uncertainty.
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