Articles | Volume 5, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1287-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1287-2024
Research article
 | 
17 Oct 2024
Research article |  | 17 Oct 2024

The impact of synoptic storm likelihood on European subseasonal forecast uncertainty and their modulation by the stratosphere

Philip Rupp, Jonas Spaeth, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Dominik Büeler, Michael Sprenger, and Thomas Birner

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Cited articles

Afargan-Gerstman, H. and Domeisen, D. I.: Pacific modulation of the North Atlantic storm track response to sudden stratospheric warming events, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL085007, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085007, 2020. a
Afargan-Gerstman, H., Büeler, D., Wulff, C. O., Sprenger, M., and Domeisen, D. I. V.: Stratospheric influence on the winter North Atlantic storm track in subseasonal reforecasts, Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-231-2024, 2024. a, b, c
Baldwin, M. P. and Dunkerton, T. J.: Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes, Science, 294, 581–584, 2001. a
Baldwin, M. P., Stephenson, D. B., Thompson, D. W., Dunkerton, T. J., Charlton, A. J., and O'Neill, A.: Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weather forecasts, Science, 301, 636–640, 2003. a
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Short summary
We quantify the occurrence of strong synoptic storms as contributing about 20 % to the uncertainty of subseasonal geopotential height forecasts over northern Europe. We further show that North Atlantic storms are less frequent, weaker and shifted southward following sudden stratospheric warming events, leading to a reduction in northern European forecast uncertainty.
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