Stratospheric influence on the winter North Atlantic storm track in subseasonal reforecasts

Afargan-Gerstman, Hilla; Büeler, Dominik; Wulff, C. Ole; Sprenger, Michael; Domeisen, Daniela I. V.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-231-2024

Articles | Volume 5, issue 1

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-231-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-231-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 5, issue 1

Research article

|

19 Feb 2024

Research article |

| 19 Feb 2024

Stratospheric influence on the winter North Atlantic storm track in subseasonal reforecasts

Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Dominik Büeler, C. Ole Wulff, Michael Sprenger, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen

Data sets

The subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project database (https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/s2s) F. Vitart et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0017.1

ERA5 hourly data on pressure levels from 1940 to present H. Hersbach et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.bd0915c6

Model code and software

Scientific processing and analysis tools for studying the stratospheric downward impact in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts and ERA5 reanalysis H. Afargan-Gerstman https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10076816

Short summary

The stratosphere is a layer of Earth's atmosphere found above the weather systems. Changes in the stratosphere can affect the winds and the storm tracks in the North Atlantic region for a relatively long time, lasting for several weeks and even months. We show that the stratosphere can be important for weather forecasts beyond 1 week, but more work is needed to improve the accuracy of these forecasts for 3–4 weeks.