Articles | Volume 5, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-231-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-231-2024
Research article
 | 
19 Feb 2024
Research article |  | 19 Feb 2024

Stratospheric influence on the winter North Atlantic storm track in subseasonal reforecasts

Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Dominik Büeler, C. Ole Wulff, Michael Sprenger, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen

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Cited articles

Afargan-Gerstman, H.: Scientific processing and analysis tools for studying the stratospheric downward impact in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts and ERA5 reanalysis, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10076816, 2023.  a
Afargan-Gerstman, H. and Domeisen, D. I. V.: Pacific modulation of the North Atlantic storm track response to sudden stratospheric warming events, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL085007, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085007, 2020. a, b, c
Afargan-Gerstman, H., Jiménez-Esteve, B., and Domeisen, D. I.: On the Relative Importance of Stratospheric and Tropospheric Drivers for the North Atlantic Jet Response to Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events, J. Climate, 35, 2851–2865, 2022. a
Ayarzagüena, B., Barriopedro, D., Perez, J. M. G., Abalos, M., de la Camara, A., Herrera, R. G., Calvo, N., and Ordóñez, C.: Stratospheric Connection to the Abrupt End of the 2016/2017 Iberian Drought, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 12639–12646, 2018. a
Baldwin, M. P. and Dunkerton, T. J.: Propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 104, 30937–30946, 1999. a
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Short summary
The stratosphere is a layer of Earth's atmosphere found above the weather systems. Changes in the stratosphere can affect the winds and the storm tracks in the North Atlantic region for a relatively long time, lasting for several weeks and even months. We show that the stratosphere can be important for weather forecasts beyond 1 week, but more work is needed to improve the accuracy of these forecasts for 3–4 weeks.
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