Articles | Volume 5, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-345-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-345-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Increasing frequency and lengthening season of western disturbances are linked to increasing strength and delayed northward migration of the subtropical jet
Kieran M. R. Hunt
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
National Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, University of Reading, Reading, UK
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Cited
18 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Synoptic and large‐scale drivers of extreme precipitation events in the Himalayas P. Bharati et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70308
- Complex network reveals propagation and moisture dynamics of Indian monsoon precipitation extremes A. Raghuvanshi & A. Agarwal https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07924-0
- Western disturbances and climate variability: a review of recent developments K. Hunt et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-43-2025
- Discerning the dynamics of urbanization-climate change-flood risk nexus in densely populated urban mega cities: An appraisal of efficient flood management through spatiotemporal and geostatistical rainfall analysis and hydrodynamic modeling R. Deopa et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175882
- Cloud microphysics sensitivity and predictability of a multi-day extreme rainfall event over the Indian Himalayas in convective-permitting simulations R. Saini et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-026-01169-0
- Temperature-sensitive changes in precipitation phases over two distinct glacierized basins of the North-Western Himalayas S. Kumar et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106691
- Shifting Rainfall Patterns and Associated Hydroclimatic Risk Across the Northwestern Himalayas: A Multi-Decadal Perspective S. Guleria https://doi.org/10.1007/s44393-025-00009-5
- Unfolding extreme rainfall events characteristics over the North-West Himalayan region based on recent GPM-IMERGV7 remotely sensed observations S. Biswas et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.132823
- Early winter precipitation variability over Pakistan and associated ENSO teleconnections R. Najeeb et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-026-06406-5
- How Does a Typical Lightning Flash Estimated Thunder Day Look Like Over the Indian Region in the Period 2019–2023? P. Vaidya et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70165
- Splitting track(s) of Western disturbance(s) . Pooja & A. Dimri https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08054-x
- Projected climate change and its influence on watershed hydrology: A case study of Suketi watershed, Himachal Pradesh M. Upadhyay et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2026.104401
- Seasonal predictability of winter PM 2.5 pollution severity in India through a strong pollution–extratropical storm connection Y. Xie et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aee4549
- Local experiences and observations of climate change in the Dho-Tarap Valley of Upper Dolpa, Nepal J. Poudel et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/00187259.2025.2468975
- High-altitude peat archives of PFAS and MeHg in Northern Pakistan: vertical distribution, source apportionment and environmental implications R. Mansoor et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10653-026-03477-1
- Will landscape responses reduce glacier sensitivity to climate change in High Mountain Asia? S. Harrison et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4113-2025
- Projected evolution of flood hazards under global warming in the Jhelum and Chenab River Basins of Pakistan: An integrated modeling approach A. Mubeen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100566
- Multi-platform observational monitoring of western disturbance -induced extreme precipitation over central india S. Arya et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-026-01138-7
18 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Synoptic and large‐scale drivers of extreme precipitation events in the Himalayas P. Bharati et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70308
- Complex network reveals propagation and moisture dynamics of Indian monsoon precipitation extremes A. Raghuvanshi & A. Agarwal https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07924-0
- Western disturbances and climate variability: a review of recent developments K. Hunt et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-43-2025
- Discerning the dynamics of urbanization-climate change-flood risk nexus in densely populated urban mega cities: An appraisal of efficient flood management through spatiotemporal and geostatistical rainfall analysis and hydrodynamic modeling R. Deopa et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175882
- Cloud microphysics sensitivity and predictability of a multi-day extreme rainfall event over the Indian Himalayas in convective-permitting simulations R. Saini et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-026-01169-0
- Temperature-sensitive changes in precipitation phases over two distinct glacierized basins of the North-Western Himalayas S. Kumar et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106691
- Shifting Rainfall Patterns and Associated Hydroclimatic Risk Across the Northwestern Himalayas: A Multi-Decadal Perspective S. Guleria https://doi.org/10.1007/s44393-025-00009-5
- Unfolding extreme rainfall events characteristics over the North-West Himalayan region based on recent GPM-IMERGV7 remotely sensed observations S. Biswas et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.132823
- Early winter precipitation variability over Pakistan and associated ENSO teleconnections R. Najeeb et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-026-06406-5
- How Does a Typical Lightning Flash Estimated Thunder Day Look Like Over the Indian Region in the Period 2019–2023? P. Vaidya et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70165
- Splitting track(s) of Western disturbance(s) . Pooja & A. Dimri https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08054-x
- Projected climate change and its influence on watershed hydrology: A case study of Suketi watershed, Himachal Pradesh M. Upadhyay et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2026.104401
- Seasonal predictability of winter PM 2.5 pollution severity in India through a strong pollution–extratropical storm connection Y. Xie et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aee4549
- Local experiences and observations of climate change in the Dho-Tarap Valley of Upper Dolpa, Nepal J. Poudel et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/00187259.2025.2468975
- High-altitude peat archives of PFAS and MeHg in Northern Pakistan: vertical distribution, source apportionment and environmental implications R. Mansoor et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10653-026-03477-1
- Will landscape responses reduce glacier sensitivity to climate change in High Mountain Asia? S. Harrison et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4113-2025
- Projected evolution of flood hazards under global warming in the Jhelum and Chenab River Basins of Pakistan: An integrated modeling approach A. Mubeen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100566
- Multi-platform observational monitoring of western disturbance -induced extreme precipitation over central india S. Arya et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-026-01138-7
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 13 Oct 2026
Short summary
This study investigates changes in weather systems that bring winter precipitation to south Asia. We find that these systems, known as western disturbances, are occurring more frequently and lasting longer into the summer months. This shift is leading to devastating floods, as happened recently in north India. By analysing 70 years of weather data, we trace this change to shifts in major air currents known as the subtropical jet. Due to climate change, such events are becoming more frequent.
This study investigates changes in weather systems that bring winter precipitation to south...