Articles | Volume 5, issue 1
Research article
12 Mar 2024
Research article |  | 12 Mar 2024

Increasing frequency and lengthening season of western disturbances are linked to increasing strength and delayed northward migration of the subtropical jet

Kieran M. R. Hunt

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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
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Cited articles

Abish, B., Joseph, P. V., and Johannessen, O. M.: Climate change in the subtropical jetstream during 1950–2009, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 32, 140–148, 2015. a, b
Ahmad, I. and Sadiq, N.: Spatio-Temporal analysis of Western Disturbances over Pakistan, Nucleus, 49, 329–338, 2012. a
Ahmed, M., Das, B., Lotus, S., and Ali, M.: A study on frequency of western disturbances and precipitation trends over Jammu & Kashmir, India: 1980–2019, Mausam, 73, 283–294, 2022. a
Archer, D. R. and Fowler, H. J.: Spatial and temporal variations in precipitation in the Upper Indus Basin, global teleconnections and hydrological implications, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 8, 47–61,, 2004. a
Associated Press: Record monsoon rains have killed more than 100 people in northern India over two weeks –, (last access: 31 July 2023), 2023. a, b
Short summary
This study investigates changes in weather systems that bring winter precipitation to south Asia. We find that these systems, known as western disturbances, are occurring more frequently and lasting longer into the summer months. This shift is leading to devastating floods, as happened recently in north India. By analysing 70 years of weather data, we trace this change to shifts in major air currents known as the subtropical jet. Due to climate change, such events are becoming more frequent.