Articles | Volume 5, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-895-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-895-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Large-ensemble assessment of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex morphology and disruptions
Faculty of Physics and Earth System Sciences, Leipzig Institute for Meteorology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
now at: Institute of Meteorology and Climatology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Vienna, Austria
Maurice Öhlert
Faculty of Physics and Earth System Sciences, Leipzig Institute for Meteorology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
Roland Eichinger
Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Department of Atmospheric Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
Christoph Jacobi
Faculty of Physics and Earth System Sciences, Leipzig Institute for Meteorology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
Related authors
Yunqian Zhu, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Valentina Aquila, Elizabeth Asher, Ewa M. Bednarz, Slimane Bekki, Christoph Brühl, Amy H. Butler, Parker Case, Simon Chabrillat, Gabriel Chiodo, Margot Clyne, Peter R. Colarco, Sandip Dhomse, Lola Falletti, Eric Fleming, Ben Johnson, Andrin Jörimann, Mahesh Kovilakam, Gerbrand Koren, Ales Kuchar, Nicolas Lebas, Qing Liang, Cheng-Cheng Liu, Graham Mann, Michael Manyin, Marion Marchand, Olaf Morgenstern, Paul Newman, Luke D. Oman, Freja F. Østerstrøm, Yifeng Peng, David Plummer, Ilaria Quaglia, William Randel, Samuel Rémy, Takashi Sekiya, Stephen Steenrod, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Rei Ueyama, Daniele Visioni, Xinyue Wang, Shingo Watanabe, Yousuke Yamashita, Pengfei Yu, Wandi Yu, Jun Zhang, and Zhihong Zhuo
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 5487–5512, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5487-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5487-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To understand the climate impact of the 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption, we developed a climate model–observation comparison project. The paper describes the protocols and models that participate in the experiments. We designed several experiments to achieve our goals of this activity: (1) to evaluate the climate model performance and (2) to understand the Earth system responses to this eruption.
Ales Kuchar, Gunter Stober, Dimitry Pokhotelov, Huixin Liu, Han-Li Liu, Manfred Ern, Damian Murphy, Diego Janches, Tracy Moffat-Griffin, Nicholas Mitchell, and Christoph Jacobi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2827, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2827, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Annales Geophysicae (ANGEO).
Short summary
Short summary
We studied how the healing of the Antarctic ozone layer is affecting winds high above the South Pole. Using ground-based radar, satellite data, and computer models, we found that winds in the upper atmosphere have become stronger over the past two decades. These changes appear to be linked to shifts in the lower atmosphere caused by ozone recovery. Our results show that human efforts to repair the ozone layer are also influencing climate patterns far above Earth’s surface.
Christoph Jacobi, Khalil Karami, Ales Kuchar, Manfred Ern, Toralf Renkwitz, Ralph Latteck, and Jorge L. Chau
Adv. Radio Sci., 23, 21–31, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-23-21-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-23-21-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Half-hourly mean winds have been obtained using ground-based low-frequency and very high frequency radio observations of the mesopause region at Collm, Germany, since 1984. Long-term changes of wind variances, which are proxies for short-period atmospheric gravity waves, have been analysed. Gravity wave amplitudes increase with time in winter, but mainly decrease in summer. The trends are consistent with mean wind changes according to wave theory.
Ales Kuchar, Timofei Sukhodolov, Gabriel Chiodo, Andrin Jörimann, Jessica Kult-Herdin, Eugene Rozanov, and Harald H. Rieder
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3623–3634, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3623-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3623-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In January 2022, the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcano erupted, sending massive amounts of water vapour into the atmosphere. This event had a significant impact on stratospheric and lower-mesospheric chemical composition. Two years later, stratospheric conditions were disturbed during so-called sudden stratospheric warmings. Here we simulate a novel pathway by which this water-rich eruption may have contributed to conditions during these events and consequently impacted the surface climate.
Christoph Jacobi, Ales Kuchar, Toralf Renkwitz, and Juliana Jaen
Adv. Radio Sci., 21, 111–121, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-21-111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-21-111-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Middle atmosphere long-term changes show the signature of climate change. We analyse 43 years of mesopause region horizontal winds obtained at two sites in Germany. We observe mainly positive trends of the zonal prevailing wind throughout the year, while the meridional winds tend to decrease in magnitude in both summer and winter. Furthermore, there is a change in long-term trends around the late 1990s, which is most clearly visible in summer winds.
Juliana Jaen, Toralf Renkwitz, Huixin Liu, Christoph Jacobi, Robin Wing, Aleš Kuchař, Masaki Tsutsumi, Njål Gulbrandsen, and Jorge L. Chau
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14871–14887, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14871-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14871-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Investigation of winds is important to understand atmospheric dynamics. In the summer mesosphere and lower thermosphere, there are three main wind flows: the mesospheric westward, the mesopause southward (equatorward), and the lower-thermospheric eastward wind. Combining almost 2 decades of measurements from different radars, we study the trend, their interannual oscillations, and the effects of the geomagnetic activity over these wind maxima.
Roland Eichinger, Sebastian Rhode, Hella Garny, Peter Preusse, Petr Pisoft, Aleš Kuchař, Patrick Jöckel, Astrid Kerkweg, and Bastian Kern
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5561–5583, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5561-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5561-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The columnar approach of gravity wave (GW) schemes results in dynamical model biases, but parallel decomposition makes horizontal GW propagation computationally unfeasible. In the global model EMAC, we approximate it by GW redistribution at one altitude using tailor-made redistribution maps generated with a ray tracer. More spread-out GW drag helps reconcile the model with observations and close the 60°S GW gap. Polar vortex dynamics are improved, enhancing climate model credibility.
Gunter Stober, Alan Liu, Alexander Kozlovsky, Zishun Qiao, Ales Kuchar, Christoph Jacobi, Chris Meek, Diego Janches, Guiping Liu, Masaki Tsutsumi, Njål Gulbrandsen, Satonori Nozawa, Mark Lester, Evgenia Belova, Johan Kero, and Nicholas Mitchell
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 5769–5792, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5769-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5769-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Precise and accurate measurements of vertical winds at the mesosphere and lower thermosphere are rare. Although meteor radars have been used for decades to observe horizontal winds, their ability to derive reliable vertical wind measurements was always questioned. In this article, we provide mathematical concepts to retrieve mathematically and physically consistent solutions, which are compared to the state-of-the-art non-hydrostatic model UA-ICON.
Ales Kuchar, Petr Sacha, Roland Eichinger, Christoph Jacobi, Petr Pisoft, and Harald Rieder
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-474, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-474, 2022
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
We focus on the impact of small-scale orographic gravity waves (OGWs) above the Himalayas. The interaction of GWs with the large-scale circulation in the stratosphere is not still well understood and can have implications on climate projections. We use a chemistry-climate model to show that these strong OGW events are associated with anomalously increased upward planetary-scale waves and in turn affect the circumpolar circulation and have the potential to alter ozone variability as well.
Gunter Stober, Ales Kuchar, Dimitry Pokhotelov, Huixin Liu, Han-Li Liu, Hauke Schmidt, Christoph Jacobi, Kathrin Baumgarten, Peter Brown, Diego Janches, Damian Murphy, Alexander Kozlovsky, Mark Lester, Evgenia Belova, Johan Kero, and Nicholas Mitchell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13855–13902, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13855-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13855-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Little is known about the climate change of wind systems in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere at the edge of space at altitudes from 70–110 km. Meteor radars represent a well-accepted remote sensing technique to measure winds at these altitudes. Here we present a state-of-the-art climatological interhemispheric comparison using continuous and long-lasting observations from worldwide distributed meteor radars from the Arctic to the Antarctic and sophisticated general circulation models.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Eugene Rozanov, Ales Kuchar, William Ball, Pavle Arsenovic, Ellis Remsberg, Patrick Jöckel, Markus Kunze, David A. Plummer, Andrea Stenke, Daniel Marsh, Doug Kinnison, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 201–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-201-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-201-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The solar signal in the mesospheric H2O and CO was extracted from the CCMI-1 model simulations and satellite observations using multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis. MLR analysis shows a pronounced and statistically robust solar signal in both H2O and CO. The model results show a general agreement with observations reproducing a negative/positive solar signal in H2O/CO. The pattern of the solar signal varies among the considered models, reflecting some differences in the model setup.
Ales Kuchar, Petr Sacha, Roland Eichinger, Christoph Jacobi, Petr Pisoft, and Harald E. Rieder
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 481–495, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-481-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-481-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Our study focuses on the impact of topographic structures such as the Himalayas and Rocky Mountains, so-called orographic gravity-wave hotspots. These hotspots play an important role in the dynamics of the middle atmosphere, in particular in the lower stratosphere. We study intermittency and zonally asymmetric character of these hotspots and their effects on the upper stratosphere and mesosphere using a new detection method in various modeling and observational datasets.
Yunqian Zhu, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Valentina Aquila, Elizabeth Asher, Ewa M. Bednarz, Slimane Bekki, Christoph Brühl, Amy H. Butler, Parker Case, Simon Chabrillat, Gabriel Chiodo, Margot Clyne, Peter R. Colarco, Sandip Dhomse, Lola Falletti, Eric Fleming, Ben Johnson, Andrin Jörimann, Mahesh Kovilakam, Gerbrand Koren, Ales Kuchar, Nicolas Lebas, Qing Liang, Cheng-Cheng Liu, Graham Mann, Michael Manyin, Marion Marchand, Olaf Morgenstern, Paul Newman, Luke D. Oman, Freja F. Østerstrøm, Yifeng Peng, David Plummer, Ilaria Quaglia, William Randel, Samuel Rémy, Takashi Sekiya, Stephen Steenrod, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Rei Ueyama, Daniele Visioni, Xinyue Wang, Shingo Watanabe, Yousuke Yamashita, Pengfei Yu, Wandi Yu, Jun Zhang, and Zhihong Zhuo
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 5487–5512, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5487-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5487-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To understand the climate impact of the 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption, we developed a climate model–observation comparison project. The paper describes the protocols and models that participate in the experiments. We designed several experiments to achieve our goals of this activity: (1) to evaluate the climate model performance and (2) to understand the Earth system responses to this eruption.
Guochun Shi, Hanli Liu, Masaki Tsutsumi, Njål Gulbrandsen, Alexander Kozlovsky, Dimitry Pokhotelov, Mark Lester, Christoph Jacobi, Kun Wu, and Gunter Stober
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 9403–9430, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9403-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9403-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Concerns about climate change are growing due to its widespread impacts, including rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and disruptions to ecosystems. To address these challenges, urgent global action is needed to monitor the distribution of trace gases and understand their effects on the atmosphere.
Sina Mehrdad, Sajedeh Marjani, Dörthe Handorf, and Christoph Jacobi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3612, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3612, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
We studied how strong wind disturbances caused by mountains can disturb the polar vortex, a large pool of cold air high above the North Pole. Using simulations, we boosted these wind disturbances over the Himalayas, North America, and East Asia. We found they can shift, weaken, and mix the vortex in different ways depending on the region. This helps explain how mountains influence the upper atmosphere and improve forecasts of extreme cold weather at the surface.
Ales Kuchar, Gunter Stober, Dimitry Pokhotelov, Huixin Liu, Han-Li Liu, Manfred Ern, Damian Murphy, Diego Janches, Tracy Moffat-Griffin, Nicholas Mitchell, and Christoph Jacobi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2827, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2827, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Annales Geophysicae (ANGEO).
Short summary
Short summary
We studied how the healing of the Antarctic ozone layer is affecting winds high above the South Pole. Using ground-based radar, satellite data, and computer models, we found that winds in the upper atmosphere have become stronger over the past two decades. These changes appear to be linked to shifts in the lower atmosphere caused by ozone recovery. Our results show that human efforts to repair the ozone layer are also influencing climate patterns far above Earth’s surface.
Sarah Vervalcke, Quentin Errera, Simon Chabrillat, Marc Op de beeck, Thomas Reddmann, Gabriele Stiller, Roland Eichinger, and Emmanuel Mahieu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3597, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3597, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents three simulations of atmospheric chemistry with the BASCOE model, driven by different meteorological data sets. These simulations include newly implemented SF6 chemistry, useful for stratospheric transport studies. Results compare well with satellite observations. The lifetime of six trace gases is computed and agrees with the literature, but SF6 shows larger sensitivity to the choice of meteorology. The lifetime of SF6 ranges from 1900 to 2600 years.
Arthur Gauthier, Claudia Borries, Alexander Kozlovsky, Diego Janches, Peter Brown, Denis Vida, Christoph Jacobi, Damian Murphy, Masaki Tsutsumi, Njål Gulbrandsen, Satonori Nozawa, Mark Lester, Johan Kero, Nicholas Mitchell, Tracy Moffat-Griffin, and Gunter Stober
Ann. Geophys., 43, 427–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-43-427-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-43-427-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study focuses on a TIMED Doppler Interferometer (TIDI)–meteor radar (MR) comparison of zonal and meridional winds and their dependence on local time and latitude. The correlation calculation between TIDI wind measurements and MR winds shows good agreement. A TIDI–MR seasonal comparison and analysis of the altitude–latitude dependence for winds are performed. TIDI reproduces the mean circulation well when compared with MRs and may be a useful lower boundary for general circulation models.
Sina Mehrdad, Sajedeh Marjani, Dörthe Handorf, and Christoph Jacobi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3005, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3005, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Wind flowing over mountains creates wave-like patterns aloft that can influence the atmosphere higher up in the stratosphere and mesosphere. In this study, we intensified these waves over specific regions like the Himalayas and Rocky Mountains and examined the resulting climate effects. We found that this can shift global wind patterns and even impact extreme events near the poles, showing how small regional changes in stratospheric wind patterns can influence the broader climate system.
J. Federico Conte, Jorge L. Chau, Toralf Renkwitz, Ralph Latteck, Masaki Tsutsumi, Christoph Jacobi, Njål Gulbrandsen, and Satonori Nozawa
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1996, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1996, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Analysis of 10 years of continuous measurements provided MMARIA/SIMONe Norway and MMARIA/SIMONe Germany reveals that the divergent and vortical motions in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere exchange the dominant role depending on the height and the time of the year. At summer mesopause altitudes over middle latitudes, the horizontal divergence and the relative vorticity contribute approximately the same, indicating an energetic balance between mesoscale divergent and vortical motions.
Christoph Jacobi, Khalil Karami, Ales Kuchar, Manfred Ern, Toralf Renkwitz, Ralph Latteck, and Jorge L. Chau
Adv. Radio Sci., 23, 21–31, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-23-21-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-23-21-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Half-hourly mean winds have been obtained using ground-based low-frequency and very high frequency radio observations of the mesopause region at Collm, Germany, since 1984. Long-term changes of wind variances, which are proxies for short-period atmospheric gravity waves, have been analysed. Gravity wave amplitudes increase with time in winter, but mainly decrease in summer. The trends are consistent with mean wind changes according to wave theory.
Ales Kuchar, Timofei Sukhodolov, Gabriel Chiodo, Andrin Jörimann, Jessica Kult-Herdin, Eugene Rozanov, and Harald H. Rieder
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3623–3634, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3623-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3623-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In January 2022, the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcano erupted, sending massive amounts of water vapour into the atmosphere. This event had a significant impact on stratospheric and lower-mesospheric chemical composition. Two years later, stratospheric conditions were disturbed during so-called sudden stratospheric warmings. Here we simulate a novel pathway by which this water-rich eruption may have contributed to conditions during these events and consequently impacted the surface climate.
Sina Mehrdad, Dörthe Handorf, Ines Höschel, Khalil Karami, Johannes Quaas, Sudhakar Dipu, and Christoph Jacobi
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1223–1268, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1223-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1223-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study introduces a novel deep learning (DL) approach to analyze how regional radiative forcing in Europe impacts the Arctic climate. By integrating atmospheric poleward energy transport with DL-based clustering of atmospheric patterns and attributing anomalies to specific clusters, our method reveals crucial, nuanced interactions within the climate system, enhancing our understanding of intricate climate dynamics.
Gunter Stober, Sharon L. Vadas, Erich Becker, Alan Liu, Alexander Kozlovsky, Diego Janches, Zishun Qiao, Witali Krochin, Guochun Shi, Wen Yi, Jie Zeng, Peter Brown, Denis Vida, Neil Hindley, Christoph Jacobi, Damian Murphy, Ricardo Buriti, Vania Andrioli, Paulo Batista, John Marino, Scott Palo, Denise Thorsen, Masaki Tsutsumi, Njål Gulbrandsen, Satonori Nozawa, Mark Lester, Kathrin Baumgarten, Johan Kero, Evgenia Belova, Nicholas Mitchell, Tracy Moffat-Griffin, and Na Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4851–4873, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4851-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4851-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
On 15 January 2022, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha‘apai volcano exploded in a vigorous eruption, causing many atmospheric phenomena reaching from the surface up to space. In this study, we investigate how the mesospheric winds were affected by the volcanogenic gravity waves and estimated their propagation direction and speed. The interplay between model and observations permits us to gain new insights into the vertical coupling through atmospheric gravity waves.
Hella Garny, Roland Eichinger, Johannes C. Laube, Eric A. Ray, Gabriele P. Stiller, Harald Bönisch, Laura Saunders, and Marianna Linz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4193–4215, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4193-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4193-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Transport circulation in the stratosphere is important for the distribution of tracers, but its strength is hard to measure. Mean transport times can be inferred from observations of trace gases with certain properties, such as sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). However, this gas has a chemical sink in the high atmosphere, which can lead to substantial biases in inferred transport times. In this paper we present a method to correct mean transport times derived from SF6 for the effects of chemical sinks.
Christoph Jacobi, Ales Kuchar, Toralf Renkwitz, and Juliana Jaen
Adv. Radio Sci., 21, 111–121, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-21-111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-21-111-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Middle atmosphere long-term changes show the signature of climate change. We analyse 43 years of mesopause region horizontal winds obtained at two sites in Germany. We observe mainly positive trends of the zonal prevailing wind throughout the year, while the meridional winds tend to decrease in magnitude in both summer and winter. Furthermore, there is a change in long-term trends around the late 1990s, which is most clearly visible in summer winds.
Juliana Jaen, Toralf Renkwitz, Huixin Liu, Christoph Jacobi, Robin Wing, Aleš Kuchař, Masaki Tsutsumi, Njål Gulbrandsen, and Jorge L. Chau
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14871–14887, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14871-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14871-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Investigation of winds is important to understand atmospheric dynamics. In the summer mesosphere and lower thermosphere, there are three main wind flows: the mesospheric westward, the mesopause southward (equatorward), and the lower-thermospheric eastward wind. Combining almost 2 decades of measurements from different radars, we study the trend, their interannual oscillations, and the effects of the geomagnetic activity over these wind maxima.
Roland Eichinger, Sebastian Rhode, Hella Garny, Peter Preusse, Petr Pisoft, Aleš Kuchař, Patrick Jöckel, Astrid Kerkweg, and Bastian Kern
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5561–5583, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5561-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5561-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The columnar approach of gravity wave (GW) schemes results in dynamical model biases, but parallel decomposition makes horizontal GW propagation computationally unfeasible. In the global model EMAC, we approximate it by GW redistribution at one altitude using tailor-made redistribution maps generated with a ray tracer. More spread-out GW drag helps reconcile the model with observations and close the 60°S GW gap. Polar vortex dynamics are improved, enhancing climate model credibility.
Olivia Linke, Johannes Quaas, Finja Baumer, Sebastian Becker, Jan Chylik, Sandro Dahlke, André Ehrlich, Dörthe Handorf, Christoph Jacobi, Heike Kalesse-Los, Luca Lelli, Sina Mehrdad, Roel A. J. Neggers, Johannes Riebold, Pablo Saavedra Garfias, Niklas Schnierstein, Matthew D. Shupe, Chris Smith, Gunnar Spreen, Baptiste Verneuil, Kameswara S. Vinjamuri, Marco Vountas, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9963–9992, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9963-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9963-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Lapse rate feedback (LRF) is a major driver of the Arctic amplification (AA) of climate change. It arises because the warming is stronger at the surface than aloft. Several processes can affect the LRF in the Arctic, such as the omnipresent temperature inversion. Here, we compare multimodel climate simulations to Arctic-based observations from a large research consortium to broaden our understanding of these processes, find synergy among them, and constrain the Arctic LRF and AA.
Khalil Karami, Rolando Garcia, Christoph Jacobi, Jadwiga H. Richter, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3799–3818, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3799-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3799-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Alongside mitigation and adaptation efforts, stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI) is increasingly considered a third pillar to combat dangerous climate change. We investigate the teleconnection between the quasi-biennial oscillation in the equatorial stratosphere and the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex under a warmer climate and an SAI scenario. We show that the Holton–Tan relationship weakens under both scenarios and discuss the physical mechanisms responsible for such changes.
Christoph Jacobi, Kanykei Kandieva, and Christina Arras
Adv. Radio Sci., 20, 85–92, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-20-85-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-20-85-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Sporadic E (Es) layers are thin regions of accumulated ions in the lower ionosphere. They can be observed by disturbances of GNSS links between low-Earth orbiting satellites and GNSS satellites. Es layers are influenced by neutral atmospheric tides and show the coupling between the neutral atmosphere and the ionosphere. Here we analyse migrating (sun-synchronous) and non-migrating tidal components in Es. The main signatures are migrating Es, but nonmigrating components are found as well.
Gerhard Georg Bruno Schmidtke, Raimund Brunner, and Christoph Jacobi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-139, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-139, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
The instrument records annual changes in Spectral Outgoing Radiation from 200–1100 nm, with 60 photomultiplier tubes simultaneously providing spectrometer and photometer data. Using Total Solar Irradiance data with a stability of 0.01 Wm-2 per year to recalibrate the established instruments, stable data of ~0.1 Wm-2 over a solar cycle period is expected. Determination of the changes in the global green Earth coverage and mapping will also assess the impact of climate engineering actions.
Gunter Stober, Alan Liu, Alexander Kozlovsky, Zishun Qiao, Ales Kuchar, Christoph Jacobi, Chris Meek, Diego Janches, Guiping Liu, Masaki Tsutsumi, Njål Gulbrandsen, Satonori Nozawa, Mark Lester, Evgenia Belova, Johan Kero, and Nicholas Mitchell
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 5769–5792, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5769-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5769-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Precise and accurate measurements of vertical winds at the mesosphere and lower thermosphere are rare. Although meteor radars have been used for decades to observe horizontal winds, their ability to derive reliable vertical wind measurements was always questioned. In this article, we provide mathematical concepts to retrieve mathematically and physically consistent solutions, which are compared to the state-of-the-art non-hydrostatic model UA-ICON.
Ales Kuchar, Petr Sacha, Roland Eichinger, Christoph Jacobi, Petr Pisoft, and Harald Rieder
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-474, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-474, 2022
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
We focus on the impact of small-scale orographic gravity waves (OGWs) above the Himalayas. The interaction of GWs with the large-scale circulation in the stratosphere is not still well understood and can have implications on climate projections. We use a chemistry-climate model to show that these strong OGW events are associated with anomalously increased upward planetary-scale waves and in turn affect the circumpolar circulation and have the potential to alter ozone variability as well.
Sumanta Sarkhel, Gunter Stober, Jorge L. Chau, Steven M. Smith, Christoph Jacobi, Subarna Mondal, Martin G. Mlynczak, and James M. Russell III
Ann. Geophys., 40, 179–190, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-40-179-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-40-179-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A rare gravity wave event was observed on the night of 25 April 2017 over northern Germany. An all-sky airglow imager recorded an upward-propagating wave at different altitudes in mesosphere with a prominent wave front above 91 km and faintly observed below. Based on wind and satellite-borne temperature profiles close to the event location, we have found the presence of a leaky thermal duct layer in 85–91 km. The appearance of this duct layer caused the wave amplitudes to diminish below 91 km.
Sheena Loeffel, Roland Eichinger, Hella Garny, Thomas Reddmann, Frauke Fritsch, Stefan Versick, Gabriele Stiller, and Florian Haenel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1175–1193, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1175-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1175-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
SF6-derived trends of stratospheric AoA from observations and model simulations disagree in sign. SF6 experiences chemical degradation, which we explicitly integrate in a global climate model. In our simulations, the AoA trend changes sign when SF6 sinks are considered; thus, the process has the potential to reconcile simulated with observed AoA trends. We show that the positive AoA trend is due to the SF6 sinks themselves and provide a first approach for a correction to account for SF6 loss.
Juliana Jaen, Toralf Renkwitz, Jorge L. Chau, Maosheng He, Peter Hoffmann, Yosuke Yamazaki, Christoph Jacobi, Masaki Tsutsumi, Vivien Matthias, and Chris Hall
Ann. Geophys., 40, 23–35, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-40-23-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-40-23-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To study long-term trends in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (70–100 km), we established two summer length definitions and analyzed the variability over the years (2004–2020). After the analysis, we found significant trends in the summer beginning of one definition. Furthermore, we were able to extend one of the time series up to 31 years and obtained evidence of non-uniform trends and periodicities similar to those known for the quasi-biennial oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation.
Christoph Jacobi, Friederike Lilienthal, Dmitry Korotyshkin, Evgeny Merzlyakov, and Gunter Stober
Adv. Radio Sci., 19, 185–193, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-19-185-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-19-185-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We compare winds and tidal amplitudes in the upper mesosphere/lower thermosphere region for cases with disturbed and undisturbed geomagnetic conditions. The zonal winds in both the mesosphere and lower thermosphere tend to be weaker during disturbed conditions. The summer equatorward meridional wind jet is weaker for disturbed geomagnetic conditions. The effect of geomagnetic variability on tidal amplitudes, except for the semidiurnal tide, is relatively small.
Gunter Stober, Ales Kuchar, Dimitry Pokhotelov, Huixin Liu, Han-Li Liu, Hauke Schmidt, Christoph Jacobi, Kathrin Baumgarten, Peter Brown, Diego Janches, Damian Murphy, Alexander Kozlovsky, Mark Lester, Evgenia Belova, Johan Kero, and Nicholas Mitchell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13855–13902, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13855-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13855-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Little is known about the climate change of wind systems in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere at the edge of space at altitudes from 70–110 km. Meteor radars represent a well-accepted remote sensing technique to measure winds at these altitudes. Here we present a state-of-the-art climatological interhemispheric comparison using continuous and long-lasting observations from worldwide distributed meteor radars from the Arctic to the Antarctic and sophisticated general circulation models.
Rajesh Vaishnav, Christoph Jacobi, Jens Berdermann, Mihail Codrescu, and Erik Schmölter
Ann. Geophys., 39, 641–655, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-641-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-641-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the role of eddy diffusion in the delayed ionospheric response against solar flux changes in the solar rotation period using the CTIPe model. The study confirms that eddy diffusion is an important factor affecting the delay of the total electron content. An increase in eddy diffusion leads to faster transport processes and an increased loss rate, resulting in a decrease in the ionospheric delay.
Simone Dietmüller, Hella Garny, Roland Eichinger, and William T. Ball
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6811–6837, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6811-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6811-2021, 2021
Rajesh Vaishnav, Erik Schmölter, Christoph Jacobi, Jens Berdermann, and Mihail Codrescu
Ann. Geophys., 39, 341–355, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-341-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-341-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the delayed ionospheric response using the observed and CTIPe-model-simulated TEC against the solar EUV flux. The ionospheric delay estimated using model-simulated TEC is in good agreement with the delay estimated for observed TEC. The study confirms the model's capabilities to reproduce the delayed ionospheric response against the solar EUV flux. Results also indicate that the average delay is higher in the Northern Hemisphere as compared to the Southern Hemisphere.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Eugene Rozanov, Ales Kuchar, William Ball, Pavle Arsenovic, Ellis Remsberg, Patrick Jöckel, Markus Kunze, David A. Plummer, Andrea Stenke, Daniel Marsh, Doug Kinnison, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 201–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-201-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-201-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The solar signal in the mesospheric H2O and CO was extracted from the CCMI-1 model simulations and satellite observations using multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis. MLR analysis shows a pronounced and statistically robust solar signal in both H2O and CO. The model results show a general agreement with observations reproducing a negative/positive solar signal in H2O/CO. The pattern of the solar signal varies among the considered models, reflecting some differences in the model setup.
Harikrishnan Charuvil Asokan, Jorge L. Chau, Raffaele Marino, Juha Vierinen, Fabio Vargas, Juan Miguel Urco, Matthias Clahsen, and Christoph Jacobi
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-974, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-974, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
This paper explores the dynamics of gravity waves and turbulence present in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region. We utilized two different techniques on meteor radar observations and simulations to obtain power spectra at different horizontal scales. The techniques are applied to a special campaign conducted in northern Germany in November 2018. The study revealed the dominance of large-scale structures with horizontal scales larger than 500 km during the campaign period.
Ales Kuchar, Petr Sacha, Roland Eichinger, Christoph Jacobi, Petr Pisoft, and Harald E. Rieder
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 481–495, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-481-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-481-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Our study focuses on the impact of topographic structures such as the Himalayas and Rocky Mountains, so-called orographic gravity-wave hotspots. These hotspots play an important role in the dynamics of the middle atmosphere, in particular in the lower stratosphere. We study intermittency and zonally asymmetric character of these hotspots and their effects on the upper stratosphere and mesosphere using a new detection method in various modeling and observational datasets.
Cited articles
Ayarzagüena, B., Polvani, L. M., Langematz, U., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, S., Butchart, N., Dameris, M., Deushi, M., Hardiman, S. C., Jöckel, P., Klekociuk, A., Marchand, M., Michou, M., Morgenstern, O., O'Connor, F. M., Oman, L. D., Plummer, D. A., Revell, L., Rozanov, E., Saint-Martin, D., Scinocca, J., Stenke, A., Stone, K., Yamashita, Y., Yoshida, K., and Zeng, G.: No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11277–11287, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018, 2018. a, b
Ayarzagüena, B., Charlton-Perez, A. J., Butler, A. H., Hitchcock, P., Simpson, I. R., Polvani, L. M., Butchart, N., Gerber, E. P., Gray, L., Hassler, B., Lin, P., Lott, F., Manzini, E., Mizuta, R., Orbe, C., Osprey, S., Saint-Martin, D., Sigmond, M., Taguchi, M., Volodin, E. M., and Watanabe, S.: Uncertainty in the response of sudden stratospheric warmings and stratosphere-troposphere coupling to quadrupled CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2019JD032345, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032345, 2020. a
Baldwin, M., Gray, L., Dunkerton, T., Hamilton, K., Haynes, P., Randel, W. J., Holton, J. R., Alexander, M., Hirota, I., Horinouchi, T., Jones, D. B. A., Kinnersley, J. S., Marquardt, C., Sato, K., and Takahashi, M.: The quasi-biennial oscillation, Rev. Geophys., 39, 179–229, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999RG000073, 2001. a
Baldwin, M. P. and Dunkerton, T. J.: Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes, Science, 294, 581–584, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1063315, 2001. a
Baldwin, M. P., Ayarzagüena, B., Birner, T., Butchart, N., Butler, A. H., Charlton-Perez, A. J., Domeisen, D. I. V., Garfinkel, C. I., Garny, H., Gerber, E. P., Hegglin, M. I., Langematz, U., and Pedatella, N. M.: Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, Rev. Geophys., 59, e2020RG000708, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000708, 2021. a, b
Blanusa, M. L., López-Zurita, C. J., and Rasp, S.: Internal variability plays a dominant role in global climate projections of temperature and precipitation extremes, Clim. Dynam., 61, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06664-3, 2023. a
Bothe, O., Jungclaus, J. H., Zanchettin, D., and Zorita, E.: Climate of the last millennium: ensemble consistency of simulations and reconstructions, Clim. Past, 9, 1089–1110, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1089-2013, 2013. a
Boucher, O., Servonnat, J., Albright, A. L., Aumont, O., Balkanski, Y., Bastrikov, V., Bekki, S., Bonnet, R., Bony, S., Bopp, L., Braconnot, P. Brockmann, P., Cadule, P., Caubel, A., Cheruy, F., Codron, F., Cozic, A., Cugnet, D., D'Andrea, F., Davini, P., de Lavergne, C., Denvil, S., Deshayes, J., Devilliers, M., Ducharne, A., Dufresne, J.-L., Dupont, E., Éthé, C., Fairhead, L., Falletti, L., Flavoni, S., Foujols, M.-A., Gardoll, S., Gastineau, G., Ghattas, J., Grandpeix, J.-Y., Guenet, B., Guez, L. E., Guilyardi, E., Guimberteau, M., Hauglustaine, D., Hourdin, F., Idelkadi, A., Joussaume, S., Kageyama, M., Khodri, M., Krinner, G., Lebas, N., Levavasseur, G., Lévy, C., Li, L., Lott, F., Lurton, T., Luyssaert, S., Madec, G., Madeleine, J.-B., Maignan, F., Marchand, M., Marti, O., Mellul, L., Meurdesoif, Y., Mignot, J., Musat, I., Ottlé, C., Peylin, P., Planton, Y., Polcher, J., Rio, C., Rochetin, N., Rousset, C., Sepulchre, P., Sima, A., Swingedouw, D., Thiéblemont, R., Traore, A. K., Vancoppenolle, M., Vial, J., Vialard, J., Viovy, N., and Vuichard, N.: Presentation and evaluation of the IPSL-CM6A-LR climate model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS002010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002010, 2020. a
Butler, A. H., Sjoberg, J. P., Seidel, D. J., and Rosenlof, K. H.: A sudden stratospheric warming compendium, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 63–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-63-2017, 2017. a
Charlton, A. J. and Polvani, L. M.: A new look at stratospheric sudden warmings. Part I: Climatology and modeling benchmarks, J. Climate, 20, 449–469, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3996.1, 2007. a, b, c
Charlton-Perez, A. J., Baldwin, M. P., Birner, T., Black, R. X., Butler, A. H., Calvo, N., Davis, N. A., Gerber, E. P., Gillett, N., Hardiman, S., Kim, J. Krüger, K., Lee, Y.-Y., Manzini, E., McDaniel, B. A., Polvani, L., Reichler, T., Shaw, T. A., Sigmond, M., Son, S.-W., Toohey, M., Wilcox, L., Yoden, S., Christiansen, B., Lott, F., Shindell, D., Yukimoto, S., and Watanabe, S.: On the lack of stratospheric dynamical variability in low-top versions of the CMIP5 models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 2494–2505, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50125, 2013. a
Christiansen, B.: The blessing of dimensionality for the analysis of climate data, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 409–422, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-409-2021, 2021. a
Cohen, N. Y., Gerber, E. P., and Bühler, O.: What Drives the Brewer–Dobson Circulation?, J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 3837–3855, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-14-0021.1, 2014. a
Danabasoglu, G., Lamarque, J.-F., Bacmeister, J., Bailey, D., DuVivier, A., Edwards, J., Emmons, L., Fasullo, J., Garcia, R., Gettelman, A., Hannay, C., Holland, M. M., Large, W. G., Lauritzen, P. H., Lawrence, D. M., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Lindsay, K., Lipscomb, W. H., Mills, M. J., Neale, R., Oleson, K. W., Otto-Bliesner, B., Phillips, A. S., Sacks, W., Tilmes, S., van Kampenhout, L., Vertenstein, M., Bertini, A., Dennis, J., Deser, C., Fischer, C., Fox-Kemper, B., Kay, J. E., Kinnison, D., Kushner, P. J., Larson, V. E., Long, M. C., Mickelson, S., Moore, J. K., Nienhouse, E., Polvani, L., Rasch, P. J., and Strand, W. G.: The community earth system model version 2 (CESM2), J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS001916, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001916, 2020. a
Deser, C., Lehner, F., Rodgers, K. B., Ault, T., Delworth, T. L., DiNezio, P. N., Fiore, A., Frankignoul, C., Fyfe, J. C., Horton, D. E., Kay, J. E. Knutti, R., Lovenduski, N. S., Marotzke, J., McKinnon, K. A., Minobe, S., Randerson, J., Screen, J. A., Simpson, I. R., and Ting, M.: Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects, Nat. Clim. Change, 10, 277–286, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0731-2, 2020. a, b, c, d
Donner, L. J., Wyman, B. L., Hemler, R. S., Horowitz, L. W., Ming, Y., Zhao, M., Golaz, J.-C., Ginoux, P., Lin, S.-J., Schwarzkopf, M. D., Austin, J. Alaka, G., Cooke, W. F., Delworth, T. L., Freidenreich, S. M., Gordon, C. T., Griffies, S. M., Held, I. M., Hurlin, W. J., Klein, S. A., Knutson, T. R., Langenhorst, A. R., Lee, H.-C., Lin, Y., Magi, B. I., Malyshev, S. L., Milly, P. C. D., Naik, V., Nath, M. J., Pincus, R., Ploshay, J. J., Ramaswamy, V., Seman, C. J., Shevliakova, E., Sirutis, J. J., Stern, W. F., Stouffer, R. J., Wilson, R. J., Winton, M., Wittenberg, A. T., and Zeng, F.: The dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component AM3 of the GFDL global coupled model CM3, J. Climate, 24, 3484–3519, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3964.1, 2011. a
Eichinger, R., Rhode, S., Garny, H., Preusse, P., Pisoft, P., Kuchař, A., Jöckel, P., Kerkweg, A., and Kern, B.: Emulating lateral gravity wave propagation in a global chemistry–climate model (EMAC v2.55.2) through horizontal flux redistribution, Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5561–5583, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5561-2023, 2023. a
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a
Gerber, E., Martineau, P., Ayarzaguena, B., Barriopedro, D., Bracegirdle, T., Butler, A., Calvo, N., Hardiman, S., Hitchcock, P., Iza, M., Langematz, U., Lu H., Marshall, M., Orr, A., Palmeiro, F. M., Son, S.-W., and Taguchi, M.: Extratropical stratosphere–troposphere coupling, SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) Final Report, https://doi.org/10.17874/800dee57d13, 2022. a
Haase, S. and Matthes, K.: The importance of interactive chemistry for stratosphere–troposphere coupling, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 3417–3432, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3417-2019, 2019. a
Hamill, T. M.: Interpretation of rank histograms for verifying ensemble forecasts, Mon. Weather Rev., 129, 550–560, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<0550:IORHFV>2.0.CO;2, 2001. a, b
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a, b
Hitchcock, P. and Simpson, I. R.: The Downward Influence of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings, J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 3856–3876, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-14-0012.1, 2014. a
Hoffmann, L. and Spang, R.: An assessment of tropopause characteristics of the ERA5 and ERA-Interim meteorological reanalyses, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4019–4046, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4019-2022, 2022. a
Holton, J. R.: The Dynamics of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, Annu. Rev. Earth Pl. Sc., 8, 169–190, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ea.08.050180.001125, 1980. a
Holton, J. R. and Tan, H.-C.: The influence of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation on the global circulation at 50 mb, J. Atmos. Sci., 37, 2200–2208, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1980)037<2200:TIOTEQ>2.0.CO;2, 1980. a
Hájková, D. and Šácha, P.: Parameterized orographic gravity wave drag and dynamical effects in CMIP6 models, Clim. Dynam., 62, 2259–2284, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-07021-0, 2023. a
Jolliffe, I. T. and Primo, C.: Evaluating rank histograms using decompositions of the chi-square test statistic, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 2133–2139, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007MWR2219.1, 2008. a
Jucker, M., Reichler, T., and Waugh, D. W.: How frequent are Antarctic sudden stratospheric warmings in present and future climate?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL093215, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093215, 2021. a
Karami, K., Mehrdad, S., and Jacobi, C.: Response of the resolved planetary wave activity and amplitude to turned off gravity waves in the UA-ICON general circulation model, J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phy., 241, 105967, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2022.105967, 2022. a
Karami, K., Borchert, S., Eichinger, R., Jacobi, C., Kuchar, A., Mehrdad, S., Pisoft, P., and Sacha, P.: The Climatology of Elevated Stratopause Events in the UA-ICON Model and the Contribution of Gravity Waves, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 128, e2022JD037907, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037907, 2023. a
King, A. D., Butler, A. H., Jucker, M., Earl, N. O., and Rudeva, I.: Observed relationships between sudden stratospheric warmings and European climate extremes, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 13943–13961, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030480, 2019. a
Kirchmeier-Young, M. C., Zwiers, F. W., and Gillett, N. P.: Attribution of extreme events in Arctic sea ice extent, J. Climate, 30, 553–571, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0412.1, 2017. a
Kuchar, A.: Accompanying data to “On the reliability of large ensembles simulating the Northern Hemispheric winter stratospheric polar vortex”, Mendeley Data [data set], https://doi.org/10.17632/d6yg8ncppg.1, 2023. a
Kuchar, A. and Öhlert, M.: VACILT/reliability_LE: Fourth release of our code repository related to reliability of large ensembles, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10620326, 2024. a, b
Kuchar, A., Sacha, P., Eichinger, R., Jacobi, C., Pisoft, P., and Rieder, H.: On the impact of Himalaya-induced gravity waves on the polar vortex, Rossby wave activity and ozone, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-474, 2022. a
Langematz, U., Meul, S., Grunow, K., Romanowsky, E., Oberländer, S., Abalichin, J., and Kubin, A.: Future Arctic temperature and ozone: The role of stratospheric composition changes, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 2092–2112, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021100, 2014. a
Lawrence, Z. D., Perlwitz, J., Butler, A. H., Manney, G. L., Newman, P. A., Lee, S. H., and Nash, E. R.: The remarkably strong Arctic stratospheric polar vortex of winter 2020: Links to record-breaking Arctic oscillation and ozone loss, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2020JD033271, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033271, 2020. a
Manzini, E., Karpechko, A. Y., Anstey, J., Baldwin, M., Black, R., Cagnazzo, C., Calvo, N., Charlton-Perez, A., Christiansen, B., Davini, P., Gerber, E., Giorgetta, M., Gray, L., Hardiman, S. C., Lee, Y.-Y., Marsh, D. R., McDaniel, B. A., Purich, A., Scaife, A. A., Shindell, D., Son, S.-W., Watanabe, S., and Zappa, G.: Northern winter climate change: Assessment of uncertainty in CMIP5 projections related to stratosphere-troposphere coupling, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 7979–7998, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021403, 2014. a, b
Matthewman, N. J. and Esler, J. G.: Stratospheric Sudden Warmings as Self-Tuning Resonances. Part I: Vortex Splitting Events, J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 2481–2504, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-11-07.1, 2011. a
Maycock, A. C. and Hitchcock, P.: Do split and displacement sudden stratospheric warmings have different annular mode signatures?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 10943–10951, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066754, 2015. a
Mitchell, D. M., Charlton-Perez, A. J., and Gray, L. J.: Characterizing the Variability and Extremes of the Stratospheric Polar Vortices Using 2D Moment Analysis, J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 1194–1213, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAS3555.1, 2011. a, b, c
Mitchell, D. M., Gray, L. J., Anstey, J., Baldwin, M. P., and Charlton-Perez, A. J.: The influence of stratospheric vortex displacements and splits on surface climate, J. Climate, 26, 2668–2682, 2013. a
Morgenstern, O., Kinnison, D. E., Mills, M., Michou, M., Horowitz, L. W., Lin, P., Deushi, M., Yoshida, K., O’Connor, F. M., Tang, Y., Abraham, N. L., Keeble, J., Dennison, F., Rozanov, E., Egorova, T., Sukhodolov, T., and Zeng, G.: Comparison of Arctic and Antarctic Stratospheric Climates in Chemistry Versus No-Chemistry Climate Models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 127, e2022JD037123, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037123, 2022. a
Müller, W. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Mauritsen, T., Baehr, J., Bittner, M., Budich, R., Bunzel, F., Esch, M., Ghosh, R., Haak, H., Ilyina, T., Kleine, T., Kornblueh, L., Li, H., Modali, K., Notz, D., Pohlmann, H., Roeckner, E., Stemmler, I., Tian, F., and Marotzke, J.: A higher-resolution version of the max planck institute earth system model (MPI-ESM1. 2-HR), J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 10, 1383–1413, 2018. a
Oehrlein, J., Chiodo, G., and Polvani, L. M.: The effect of interactive ozone chemistry on weak and strong stratospheric polar vortex events, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10531–10544, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10531-2020, 2020. a
Olonscheck, D., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Milinski, S., Beobide-Arsuaga, G., Baehr, J., Fröb, F., Ilyina, T., Kadow, C., Krieger, D., Li, H., Marotzke, J., Plésiat, ., Schupfner, M., Wachsmann, F., Wallberg, L., Wieners, K.-H., and Brune, S.: The New Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble With CMIP6 Forcing and High-Frequency Model Output, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 15, e2023MS003790, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS003790, 2023. a
Rao, J. and Garfinkel, C. I.: CMIP5/6 models project little change in the statistical characteristics of sudden stratospheric warmings in the 21st century, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 034024, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd4fe, 2021. a, b, c
Rao, J., Garfinkel, C. I., and White, I. P.: How does the quasi-biennial oscillation affect the boreal winter tropospheric circulation in CMIP5/6 models?, J. Climate, 33, 8975–8996, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0024.1, 2020. a
Richter, J. H., Anstey, J. A., Butchart, N., Kawatani, Y., Meehl, G. A., Osprey, S., and Simpson, I. R.: Progress in simulating the quasi-biennial oscillation in CMIP models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2019JD032362, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032362, 2020. a
Rieder, H. E., Chiodo, G., Fritzer, J., Wienerroither, C., and Polvani, L. M.: Is interactive ozone chemistry important to represent polar cap stratospheric temperature variability in Earth-System Models?, Environ. Res. Lett., 14, 044026, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab07ff, 2019. a
Scaife, A. A., Spangehl, T., Fereday, D. R., Cubasch, U., Langematz, U., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, S., Braesicke, P., Butchart, N., Chipperfield, M. P., Gettelman, A., Hardiman, S. C., Michou, M., Rozanov, E., and Shepherd, T. G.: Climate change projections and stratosphere–troposphere interaction, Clim. Dynam., 38, 2089–2097, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1080-7, 2012. a
Sellar, A. A., Jones, C. G., Mulcahy, J. P., Tang, Y., Yool, A., Wiltshire, A., O'connor, F. M., Stringer, M., Hill, R., Palmieri, J., Woodward, S., de Mora, L., Kuhlbrodt, T., Rumbold, S. T., Kelley, D. I., Ellis, R., Johnson, C. E., Walton, J., Abraham, N. L., Andrews, M. B., Andrews, T., Archibald, A. T., Berthou, S., Burke, E., Blockley, E., Carslaw, K., Dalvi, M., Edwards, J., Folberth, G. A., Gedney, N., Griffiths, P. T., Harper, A. B., Hendry, M. A., Hewitt, A. J., Johnson, B., Jones, A., Jones, C. D., Keeble, J., Liddicoat, S., Morgenstern, O., Parker, R. J., Predoi, V., Robertson, E., Siahaan, A., Smith, R. S., Swaminathan, R., Woodhouse, M. T., Zeng, G., and Zerroukat, M.: UKESM1: Description and evaluation of the UK Earth System Model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 4513–4558, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001739, 2019. a
Shiogama, H., Tatebe, H., Hayashi, M., Abe, M., Arai, M., Koyama, H., Imada, Y., Kosaka, Y., Ogura, T., and Watanabe, M.: MIROC6 Large Ensemble (MIROC6-LE): experimental design and initial analyses, Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1107–1124, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1107-2023, 2023. a
Sigmond, M. and Shepherd, T. G.: Compensation between Resolved Wave Driving and Parameterized Orographic Gravity Wave Driving of the Brewer–Dobson Circulation and Its Response to Climate Change, J. Climate, 27, 5601–5610, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00644.1, 2014. a
Sigmond, M., Anstey, J., Arora, V., Digby, R., Gillett, N., Kharin, V., Merryfield, W., Reader, C., Scinocca, J., Swart, N., Virgin, J., Abraham, C., Cole, J., Lambert, N., Lee, W.-S., Liang, Y., Malinina, E., Rieger, L., von Salzen, K., Seiler, C., Seinen, C., Shao, A., Sospedra-Alfonso, R., Wang, L., and Yang, D.: Improvements in the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM) through systematic model analysis: CanESM5.0 and CanESM5.1, Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6553–6591, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6553-2023, 2023. a
Simpson, I. R., Hitchcock, P., Seager, R., Wu, Y., and Callaghan, P.: The downward influence of uncertainty in the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex response to climate change, J. Climate, 31, 6371–6391, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0041.1, 2018. a
Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Milinski, S., and Maher, N.: Exploiting large ensembles for a better yet simpler climate model evaluation, Clim. Dynam., 57, 2557–2580, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05821-w, 2021. a
Swart, N. C., Cole, J. N. S., Kharin, V. V., Lazare, M., Scinocca, J. F., Gillett, N. P., Anstey, J., Arora, V., Christian, J. R., Hanna, S., Jiao, Y., Lee, W. G., Majaess, F., Saenko, O. A., Seiler, C., Seinen, C., Shao, A., Sigmond, M., Solheim, L., von Salzen, K., Yang, D., and Winter, B.: The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5.0.3), Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4823–4873, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4823-2019, 2019. a
Tatebe, H., Ogura, T., Nitta, T., Komuro, Y., Ogochi, K., Takemura, T., Sudo, K., Sekiguchi, M., Abe, M., Saito, F., Chikira, M., Watanabe, S., Mori, M., Hirota, N., Kawatani, Y., Mochizuki, T., Yoshimura, K., Takata, K., O'ishi, R., Yamazaki, D., Suzuki, T., Kurogi, M., Kataoka, T., Watanabe, M., and Kimoto, M.: Description and basic evaluation of simulated mean state, internal variability, and climate sensitivity in MIROC6, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2727–2765, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2727-2019, 2019. a
Thompson, D. W., Baldwin, M. P., and Wallace, J. M.: Stratospheric connection to Northern Hemisphere wintertime weather: Implications for prediction, J. Climate, 15, 1421–1428, 2002. a
Vokhmyanin, M., Asikainen, T., Salminen, A., and Mursula, K.: Long-Term Prediction of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings With Geomagnetic and Solar Activity, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 128, e2022JD037337, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037337, 2023. a
Voldoire, A., Saint-Martin, D., Sénési, S., Decharme, B., Alias, A., Chevallier, M., Colin, J., Guérémy, J.-F., Michou, M., Moine, M.-P., Nabat, P., Roehrig, R., Salas y Mélia, D., Séférian, R., Valcke, S., Beau, I., Belamari, S., Berthet, S., Cassou, C., Cattiaux, J., Deshayes, J., Douville, H., Ethé, C., Franchistéguy, L., Geoffroy, O., Lévy, C., Madec, G., Meurdesoif, Y., Msadek, R., Ribes, A., Sanchez-Gomez, E., Terray, L., and Waldman, R.: Evaluation of CMIP6 deck experiments with CNRM-CM6-1, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 2177–2213, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001683, 2019. a, b
Volodin, E. and Gritsun, A.: Simulation of observed climate changes in 1850–2014 with climate model INM-CM5, Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1235–1242, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1235-2018, 2018. a
Zappa, G. and Shepherd, T. G.: Storylines of atmospheric circulation change for European regional climate impact assessment, J. Climate, 30, 6561–6577, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0807.1, 2017. a
Short summary
Exploring the polar vortex's impact on climate, the study evaluates model simulations against the ERA5 reanalysis data. Revelations about model discrepancies in simulating disruptive stratospheric warmings and vortex behavior highlight the need for refined model simulations of past climate. By enhancing our understanding of these dynamics, the research contributes to more reliable climate projections of the polar vortex with the impact on surface climate.
Exploring the polar vortex's impact on climate, the study evaluates model simulations against...