Articles | Volume 5, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-895-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-895-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
10 Jul 2024
Research article |
| 10 Jul 2024
| 10 Jul 2024
Large-ensemble assessment of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex morphology and disruptions
Faculty of Physics and Earth System Sciences, Leipzig Institute for Meteorology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
now at: Institute of Meteorology and Climatology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Vienna, Austria
Maurice Öhlert
Faculty of Physics and Earth System Sciences, Leipzig Institute for Meteorology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
Roland Eichinger
Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Department of Atmospheric Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
Christoph Jacobi
Faculty of Physics and Earth System Sciences, Leipzig Institute for Meteorology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
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In January 2022, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano erupted, sending massive amount of water vapor into the atmosphere. This event had a significant impact on stratospheric and lower mesosphere chemical composition. A year later stratospheric conditions have been disturbed during so-called Sudden Stratospheric. Here we simulate a novel pathway by which the water-rich eruption such as HT may have contributed to conditions during these events and consequently impacted surface climate.
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The columnar approach of gravity wave (GW) schemes results in dynamical model biases, but parallel decomposition makes horizontal GW propagation computationally unfeasible. In the global model EMAC, we approximate it by GW redistribution at one altitude using tailor-made redistribution maps generated with a ray tracer. More spread-out GW drag helps reconcile the model with observations and close the 60°S GW gap. Polar vortex dynamics are improved, enhancing climate model credibility.
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We focus on the impact of small-scale orographic gravity waves (OGWs) above the Himalayas. The interaction of GWs with the large-scale circulation in the stratosphere is not still well understood and can have implications on climate projections. We use a chemistry-climate model to show that these strong OGW events are associated with anomalously increased upward planetary-scale waves and in turn affect the circumpolar circulation and have the potential to alter ozone variability as well.
Gunter Stober, Ales Kuchar, Dimitry Pokhotelov, Huixin Liu, Han-Li Liu, Hauke Schmidt, Christoph Jacobi, Kathrin Baumgarten, Peter Brown, Diego Janches, Damian Murphy, Alexander Kozlovsky, Mark Lester, Evgenia Belova, Johan Kero, and Nicholas Mitchell
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Little is known about the climate change of wind systems in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere at the edge of space at altitudes from 70–110 km. Meteor radars represent a well-accepted remote sensing technique to measure winds at these altitudes. Here we present a state-of-the-art climatological interhemispheric comparison using continuous and long-lasting observations from worldwide distributed meteor radars from the Arctic to the Antarctic and sophisticated general circulation models.
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In January 2022, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano erupted, sending massive amount of water vapor into the atmosphere. This event had a significant impact on stratospheric and lower mesosphere chemical composition. A year later stratospheric conditions have been disturbed during so-called Sudden Stratospheric. Here we simulate a novel pathway by which the water-rich eruption such as HT may have contributed to conditions during these events and consequently impacted surface climate.
Gunter Stober, Sharon L. Vadas, Erich Becker, Alan Liu, Alexander Kozlovsky, Diego Janches, Zishun Qiao, Witali Krochin, Guochun Shi, Wen Yi, Jie Zeng, Peter Brown, Denis Vida, Neil Hindley, Christoph Jacobi, Damian Murphy, Ricardo Buriti, Vania Andrioli, Paulo Batista, John Marino, Scott Palo, Denise Thorsen, Masaki Tsutsumi, Njål Gulbrandsen, Satonori Nozawa, Mark Lester, Kathrin Baumgarten, Johan Kero, Evgenia Belova, Nicholas Mitchell, Tracy Moffat-Griffin, and Na Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4851–4873, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4851-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4851-2024, 2024
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On 15 January 2022, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha‘apai volcano exploded in a vigorous eruption, causing many atmospheric phenomena reaching from the surface up to space. In this study, we investigate how the mesospheric winds were affected by the volcanogenic gravity waves and estimated their propagation direction and speed. The interplay between model and observations permits us to gain new insights into the vertical coupling through atmospheric gravity waves.
Hella Garny, Roland Eichinger, Johannes C. Laube, Eric A. Ray, Gabriele P. Stiller, Harald Bönisch, Laura Saunders, and Marianna Linz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4193–4215, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4193-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4193-2024, 2024
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Transport circulation in the stratosphere is important for the distribution of tracers, but its strength is hard to measure. Mean transport times can be inferred from observations of trace gases with certain properties, such as sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). However, this gas has a chemical sink in the high atmosphere, which can lead to substantial biases in inferred transport times. In this paper we present a method to correct mean transport times derived from SF6 for the effects of chemical sinks.
Christoph Jacobi, Ales Kuchar, Toralf Renkwitz, and Juliana Jaen
Adv. Radio Sci., 21, 111–121, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-21-111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-21-111-2023, 2023
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Juliana Jaen, Toralf Renkwitz, Huixin Liu, Christoph Jacobi, Robin Wing, Aleš Kuchař, Masaki Tsutsumi, Njål Gulbrandsen, and Jorge L. Chau
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14871–14887, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14871-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14871-2023, 2023
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Roland Eichinger, Sebastian Rhode, Hella Garny, Peter Preusse, Petr Pisoft, Aleš Kuchař, Patrick Jöckel, Astrid Kerkweg, and Bastian Kern
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Olivia Linke, Johannes Quaas, Finja Baumer, Sebastian Becker, Jan Chylik, Sandro Dahlke, André Ehrlich, Dörthe Handorf, Christoph Jacobi, Heike Kalesse-Los, Luca Lelli, Sina Mehrdad, Roel A. J. Neggers, Johannes Riebold, Pablo Saavedra Garfias, Niklas Schnierstein, Matthew D. Shupe, Chris Smith, Gunnar Spreen, Baptiste Verneuil, Kameswara S. Vinjamuri, Marco Vountas, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9963–9992, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9963-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9963-2023, 2023
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Lapse rate feedback (LRF) is a major driver of the Arctic amplification (AA) of climate change. It arises because the warming is stronger at the surface than aloft. Several processes can affect the LRF in the Arctic, such as the omnipresent temperature inversion. Here, we compare multimodel climate simulations to Arctic-based observations from a large research consortium to broaden our understanding of these processes, find synergy among them, and constrain the Arctic LRF and AA.
Khalil Karami, Rolando Garcia, Christoph Jacobi, Jadwiga H. Richter, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3799–3818, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3799-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3799-2023, 2023
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Christoph Jacobi, Kanykei Kandieva, and Christina Arras
Adv. Radio Sci., 20, 85–92, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-20-85-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-20-85-2023, 2023
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Sporadic E (Es) layers are thin regions of accumulated ions in the lower ionosphere. They can be observed by disturbances of GNSS links between low-Earth orbiting satellites and GNSS satellites. Es layers are influenced by neutral atmospheric tides and show the coupling between the neutral atmosphere and the ionosphere. Here we analyse migrating (sun-synchronous) and non-migrating tidal components in Es. The main signatures are migrating Es, but nonmigrating components are found as well.
Gerhard Georg Bruno Schmidtke, Raimund Brunner, and Christoph Jacobi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-139, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-139, 2023
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The instrument records annual changes in Spectral Outgoing Radiation from 200–1100 nm, with 60 photomultiplier tubes simultaneously providing spectrometer and photometer data. Using Total Solar Irradiance data with a stability of 0.01 Wm-2 per year to recalibrate the established instruments, stable data of ~0.1 Wm-2 over a solar cycle period is expected. Determination of the changes in the global green Earth coverage and mapping will also assess the impact of climate engineering actions.
Gunter Stober, Alan Liu, Alexander Kozlovsky, Zishun Qiao, Ales Kuchar, Christoph Jacobi, Chris Meek, Diego Janches, Guiping Liu, Masaki Tsutsumi, Njål Gulbrandsen, Satonori Nozawa, Mark Lester, Evgenia Belova, Johan Kero, and Nicholas Mitchell
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 5769–5792, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5769-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5769-2022, 2022
Short summary
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Precise and accurate measurements of vertical winds at the mesosphere and lower thermosphere are rare. Although meteor radars have been used for decades to observe horizontal winds, their ability to derive reliable vertical wind measurements was always questioned. In this article, we provide mathematical concepts to retrieve mathematically and physically consistent solutions, which are compared to the state-of-the-art non-hydrostatic model UA-ICON.
Ales Kuchar, Petr Sacha, Roland Eichinger, Christoph Jacobi, Petr Pisoft, and Harald Rieder
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-474, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-474, 2022
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
We focus on the impact of small-scale orographic gravity waves (OGWs) above the Himalayas. The interaction of GWs with the large-scale circulation in the stratosphere is not still well understood and can have implications on climate projections. We use a chemistry-climate model to show that these strong OGW events are associated with anomalously increased upward planetary-scale waves and in turn affect the circumpolar circulation and have the potential to alter ozone variability as well.
Sumanta Sarkhel, Gunter Stober, Jorge L. Chau, Steven M. Smith, Christoph Jacobi, Subarna Mondal, Martin G. Mlynczak, and James M. Russell III
Ann. Geophys., 40, 179–190, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-40-179-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-40-179-2022, 2022
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A rare gravity wave event was observed on the night of 25 April 2017 over northern Germany. An all-sky airglow imager recorded an upward-propagating wave at different altitudes in mesosphere with a prominent wave front above 91 km and faintly observed below. Based on wind and satellite-borne temperature profiles close to the event location, we have found the presence of a leaky thermal duct layer in 85–91 km. The appearance of this duct layer caused the wave amplitudes to diminish below 91 km.
Sheena Loeffel, Roland Eichinger, Hella Garny, Thomas Reddmann, Frauke Fritsch, Stefan Versick, Gabriele Stiller, and Florian Haenel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1175–1193, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1175-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1175-2022, 2022
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SF6-derived trends of stratospheric AoA from observations and model simulations disagree in sign. SF6 experiences chemical degradation, which we explicitly integrate in a global climate model. In our simulations, the AoA trend changes sign when SF6 sinks are considered; thus, the process has the potential to reconcile simulated with observed AoA trends. We show that the positive AoA trend is due to the SF6 sinks themselves and provide a first approach for a correction to account for SF6 loss.
Juliana Jaen, Toralf Renkwitz, Jorge L. Chau, Maosheng He, Peter Hoffmann, Yosuke Yamazaki, Christoph Jacobi, Masaki Tsutsumi, Vivien Matthias, and Chris Hall
Ann. Geophys., 40, 23–35, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-40-23-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-40-23-2022, 2022
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To study long-term trends in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (70–100 km), we established two summer length definitions and analyzed the variability over the years (2004–2020). After the analysis, we found significant trends in the summer beginning of one definition. Furthermore, we were able to extend one of the time series up to 31 years and obtained evidence of non-uniform trends and periodicities similar to those known for the quasi-biennial oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation.
Christoph Jacobi, Friederike Lilienthal, Dmitry Korotyshkin, Evgeny Merzlyakov, and Gunter Stober
Adv. Radio Sci., 19, 185–193, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-19-185-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-19-185-2021, 2021
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We compare winds and tidal amplitudes in the upper mesosphere/lower thermosphere region for cases with disturbed and undisturbed geomagnetic conditions. The zonal winds in both the mesosphere and lower thermosphere tend to be weaker during disturbed conditions. The summer equatorward meridional wind jet is weaker for disturbed geomagnetic conditions. The effect of geomagnetic variability on tidal amplitudes, except for the semidiurnal tide, is relatively small.
Gunter Stober, Ales Kuchar, Dimitry Pokhotelov, Huixin Liu, Han-Li Liu, Hauke Schmidt, Christoph Jacobi, Kathrin Baumgarten, Peter Brown, Diego Janches, Damian Murphy, Alexander Kozlovsky, Mark Lester, Evgenia Belova, Johan Kero, and Nicholas Mitchell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13855–13902, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13855-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13855-2021, 2021
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Little is known about the climate change of wind systems in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere at the edge of space at altitudes from 70–110 km. Meteor radars represent a well-accepted remote sensing technique to measure winds at these altitudes. Here we present a state-of-the-art climatological interhemispheric comparison using continuous and long-lasting observations from worldwide distributed meteor radars from the Arctic to the Antarctic and sophisticated general circulation models.
Rajesh Vaishnav, Christoph Jacobi, Jens Berdermann, Mihail Codrescu, and Erik Schmölter
Ann. Geophys., 39, 641–655, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-641-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-641-2021, 2021
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We investigate the role of eddy diffusion in the delayed ionospheric response against solar flux changes in the solar rotation period using the CTIPe model. The study confirms that eddy diffusion is an important factor affecting the delay of the total electron content. An increase in eddy diffusion leads to faster transport processes and an increased loss rate, resulting in a decrease in the ionospheric delay.
Simone Dietmüller, Hella Garny, Roland Eichinger, and William T. Ball
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6811–6837, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6811-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6811-2021, 2021
Rajesh Vaishnav, Erik Schmölter, Christoph Jacobi, Jens Berdermann, and Mihail Codrescu
Ann. Geophys., 39, 341–355, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-341-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-341-2021, 2021
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We investigate the delayed ionospheric response using the observed and CTIPe-model-simulated TEC against the solar EUV flux. The ionospheric delay estimated using model-simulated TEC is in good agreement with the delay estimated for observed TEC. The study confirms the model's capabilities to reproduce the delayed ionospheric response against the solar EUV flux. Results also indicate that the average delay is higher in the Northern Hemisphere as compared to the Southern Hemisphere.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Eugene Rozanov, Ales Kuchar, William Ball, Pavle Arsenovic, Ellis Remsberg, Patrick Jöckel, Markus Kunze, David A. Plummer, Andrea Stenke, Daniel Marsh, Doug Kinnison, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 201–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-201-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-201-2021, 2021
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The solar signal in the mesospheric H2O and CO was extracted from the CCMI-1 model simulations and satellite observations using multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis. MLR analysis shows a pronounced and statistically robust solar signal in both H2O and CO. The model results show a general agreement with observations reproducing a negative/positive solar signal in H2O/CO. The pattern of the solar signal varies among the considered models, reflecting some differences in the model setup.
Harikrishnan Charuvil Asokan, Jorge L. Chau, Raffaele Marino, Juha Vierinen, Fabio Vargas, Juan Miguel Urco, Matthias Clahsen, and Christoph Jacobi
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-974, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-974, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
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This paper explores the dynamics of gravity waves and turbulence present in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region. We utilized two different techniques on meteor radar observations and simulations to obtain power spectra at different horizontal scales. The techniques are applied to a special campaign conducted in northern Germany in November 2018. The study revealed the dominance of large-scale structures with horizontal scales larger than 500 km during the campaign period.
Ales Kuchar, Petr Sacha, Roland Eichinger, Christoph Jacobi, Petr Pisoft, and Harald E. Rieder
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 481–495, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-481-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-481-2020, 2020
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Our study focuses on the impact of topographic structures such as the Himalayas and Rocky Mountains, so-called orographic gravity-wave hotspots. These hotspots play an important role in the dynamics of the middle atmosphere, in particular in the lower stratosphere. We study intermittency and zonally asymmetric character of these hotspots and their effects on the upper stratosphere and mesosphere using a new detection method in various modeling and observational datasets.
Frauke Fritsch, Hella Garny, Andreas Engel, Harald Bönisch, and Roland Eichinger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8709–8725, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8709-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8709-2020, 2020
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We test two methods to derive age of air as a diagnostic of the Brewer–Dobson circulation from non-linear increasing trace gases such as SF6 using a chemistry-climate model and observations. Both the model and the observations show systematic variation of the age of air trend dependent on the chosen assumptions that are required when deriving age of air from measurements. This provides insight into the differences in age of air trends of observations and models.
Christoph Geißler, Christoph Jacobi, and Friederike Lilienthal
Ann. Geophys., 38, 527–544, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-527-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-527-2020, 2020
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This is an extensive model study to analyze the migrating quarterdiurnal solar tide (QDT) and its forcing mechanisms in the middle atmosphere. We first show a climatology of the QDT amplitudes and examine the contribution of the different forcing mechanisms, including direct solar, nonlinear and gravity wave forcing, on the QDT amplitude. We then investigate the destructive interference between the individual forcing mechanisms.
Friederike Lilienthal, Erdal Yiğit, Nadja Samtleben, and Christoph Jacobi
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-339, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-339, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
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Gravity waves are a small-scale but prominent dynamical feature in the Earth's atmosphere. Here, we use a mechanistic nonlinear general circulation model and implement a modern whole atmosphere gravity wave parameterization. We study the response of the atmosphere on several phase speed spectra. We find a large influence of fast travelling waves on the background dynamics in the thermosphere and also a strong dependence of the amplitude of the terdiurnal solar tide, indicating wave interactions.
Erik Schmölter, Jens Berdermann, Norbert Jakowski, and Christoph Jacobi
Ann. Geophys., 38, 149–162, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-149-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-149-2020, 2020
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This study correlates ionospheric parameters with the integrated solar radiation for an analysis of the delayed ionospheric response in order to confirm previous studies on the delay and to further specify variations of the delay (seasonal and spatial). Results also indicate the dependence on the geomagnetic activity as well as on the 11-year solar cycle. The results are important for the understanding of ionospheric processes and could be used for the validation of ionospheric models.
Stefan Lossow, Charlotta Högberg, Farahnaz Khosrawi, Gabriele P. Stiller, Ralf Bauer, Kaley A. Walker, Sylvia Kellmann, Andrea Linden, Michael Kiefer, Norbert Glatthor, Thomas von Clarmann, Donal P. Murtagh, Jörg Steinwagner, Thomas Röckmann, and Roland Eichinger
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 287–308, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-287-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-287-2020, 2020
Nadja Samtleben, Aleš Kuchař, Petr Šácha, Petr Pišoft, and Christoph Jacobi
Ann. Geophys., 38, 95–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-95-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-95-2020, 2020
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The additional transfer of momentum and energy induced by locally breaking gravity wave hotspots in the lower stratosphere may lead to a destabilization of the polar vortex, which is strongly dependent on the position of the hotspot. The simulations with a global circulation model show that hotspots located above Eurasia cause a total decrease in the stationary planetary wave (SPW) activity, while the impact of hotspots located in North America mostly increase the SPW activity.
Rajesh Vaishnav, Christoph Jacobi, and Jens Berdermann
Ann. Geophys., 37, 1141–1159, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-37-1141-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-37-1141-2019, 2019
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We investigate the ionospheric response to the temporal and spatial dynamics of the solar activity using total electron content (TEC) maps and multiple solar proxies. The maximum correlation at a 16–32-d timescale is observed between the He-II, Mg-II, and F30 with respect to global mean TEC, with an effective time delay of about 1 d. The most suitable proxy to represent the solar activity at the timescales of 16–32 d and 32–64 d is He-II.
Friederike Lilienthal and Christoph Jacobi
Ann. Geophys., 37, 943–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-37-943-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-37-943-2019, 2019
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We analyzed the forcing mechanisms of the migrating terdiurnal solar tide in the middle atmosphere, focusing the impact on the zonal mean circulation. We show that the primary solar forcing is the most dominant one but secondary wave–wave interactions also contribute in the lower thermosphere region. We further demonstrate that small-scale gravity waves can strongly and irregularly influence the amplitude of the terdiurnal tide as well as the background circulation in the thermosphere.
Christoph Jacobi and Christina Arras
Adv. Radio Sci., 17, 213–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-17-213-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-17-213-2019, 2019
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We analyze tidal phases and related wind shear in the mesosphere and
lower thermosphere as observed by a meteor radar. The wind shear phases are compared with those of sporadic E occurrence rates, which were derived from GPS radio occultation observations. We find good correspondence between radar derived wind shear and sporadic E phases for the semidiurnal, terdiurnal, and quarterdiurnal tidal components, but not for the diurnal tide.
Nadja Samtleben, Christoph Jacobi, Petr Pišoft, Petr Šácha, and Aleš Kuchař
Ann. Geophys., 37, 507–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-37-507-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-37-507-2019, 2019
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Simulations of locally breaking gravity wave hot spots in the stratosphere show a suppression of wave propagation at midlatitudes, which is partly compensated for by additional wave propagation through the polar region. This leads to a displacement of the polar vortex towards lower latitudes. The effect is highly dependent on the position of the artificial gravity wave forcing. It is strongest (weakest) for hot spots at lower to middle latitudes (higher latitudes).
Petr Šácha, Roland Eichinger, Hella Garny, Petr Pišoft, Simone Dietmüller, Laura de la Torre, David A. Plummer, Patrick Jöckel, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Neal Butchart, and Juan A. Añel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7627–7647, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7627-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7627-2019, 2019
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Climate models robustly project a Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) acceleration in the course of climate change. Analyzing mean age of stratospheric air (AoA) from a subset of climate projection simulations, we find a remarkable agreement in simulating the largest AoA trends in the extratropical stratosphere. This is shown to be related with the upward shift of the circulation, resulting in a so-called stratospheric shrinkage, which could be one of the so-far-omitted BDC acceleration drivers.
Christoph Jacobi, Christina Arras, Christoph Geißler, and Friederike Lilienthal
Ann. Geophys., 37, 273–288, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-37-273-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-37-273-2019, 2019
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Sporadic E (Es) layers in the Earth's ionosphere are produced by ion convergence due to vertical wind shear in the presence of a horizontal component of the Earth's magnetic field. We present analyses of the 6 h tidal signatures in ES occurrence rates derived from GPS radio observations. Times of maxima in ES agree well with those of negative wind shear obtained from radar observation. The global distribution of ES amplitudes agrees with wind shear amplitudes from numerical modeling.
Daniel Mewes and Christoph Jacobi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 3927–3937, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3927-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3927-2019, 2019
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Horizontal moist static energy (MSE) transport patterns were extracted from reanalysis data using an artificial neuronal network for the winter months. The results show that during the last 30 years transport pathways that favour MSE transport through the North Atlantic are getting more frequent. This North Atlantic pathway is connected to positive temperature anomalies over the central Arctic, which implies a connection between Arctic amplification and the change in horizontal heat transport.
Roland Eichinger, Simone Dietmüller, Hella Garny, Petr Šácha, Thomas Birner, Harald Bönisch, Giovanni Pitari, Daniele Visioni, Andrea Stenke, Eugene Rozanov, Laura Revell, David A. Plummer, Patrick Jöckel, Luke Oman, Makoto Deushi, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando Garcia, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Kane Adam Stone, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 921–940, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-921-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-921-2019, 2019
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To shed more light upon the changes in stratospheric circulation in the 21st century, climate projection simulations of 10 state-of-the-art global climate models, spanning from 1960 to 2100, are analyzed. The study shows that in addition to changes in transport, mixing also plays an important role in stratospheric circulation and that the properties of mixing vary over time. Furthermore, the influence of mixing is quantified and a dynamical framework is provided to understand the changes.
Sven Wilhelm, Gunter Stober, Vivien Matthias, Christoph Jacobi, and Damian J. Murphy
Ann. Geophys., 37, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-37-1-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-37-1-2019, 2019
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This study shows that the mesospheric winds are affected by an expansion–shrinking of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere that takes place due to changes in the intensity of the solar radiation, which affects the density within the atmosphere. On seasonal timescales, an increase in the neutral density occurs together with a decrease in the eastward-directed zonal wind. Further, even after removing the seasonal and the 11-year solar cycle variations, we show a connection between them.
Friederike Lilienthal, Christoph Jacobi, and Christoph Geißler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15725–15742, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15725-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15725-2018, 2018
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The terdiurnal solar tide is an atmospheric wave, owing to the daily variation of solar heating with a period of 8 h. Here, we present model simulations of this tide and investigate the relative importance of possible forcing mechanisms because they are still under debate. These are, besides direct solar heating, nonlinear interactions between other tides and gravity wave–tide interactions. As a result, solar heating is most important and nonlinear effects partly counteract this forcing.
Christoph Jacobi, Christoph Geißler, Friederike Lilienthal, and Amelie Krug
Adv. Radio Sci., 16, 141–147, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-16-141-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-16-141-2018, 2018
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The possible sources of the quarterdiurnal tide (QDT) in the middle atmosphere are still under discussion. Therefore, meteor radar winds were analyzed with respect to non-linear interaction, which probably plays a role in winter, but to a lesser degree in summer. Numerical model experiments lead to the conclusion that, although non-linear tidal interaction is indeed one source of the QDT, the major source is direct solar forcing of the 6-hr tidal components.
Erik Schmölter, Jens Berdermann, Norbert Jakowski, Christoph Jacobi, and Rajesh Vaishnav
Adv. Radio Sci., 16, 149–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-16-149-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-16-149-2018, 2018
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Physical and chemical processes in the ionosphere are driven by complex interactions with the solar radiation. The ionospheric plasma is in particular sensitive to solar variations with a time delay between one and two days.
Here we present preliminary results of the ionospheric delay based on a comprehensive and reliable database consisting of GNSS TEC Maps and EUV spectral flux data.
Rajesh Vaishnav, Christoph Jacobi, Jens Berdermann, Erik Schmölter, and Mihail Codrescu
Adv. Radio Sci., 16, 157–165, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-16-157-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-16-157-2018, 2018
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We investigate the ionospheric response to solar Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) variations using different solar proxies and IGS TEC maps. An ionospheric delay in GTEC is observed at the 27 days solar rotation period with the time scale of about ~ 1–2 days. Here we present preliminary results from the CTIPe model simulations which qualitatively reproduce the observed ~1-2 days delay in GTEC, which is might be due to vertical transport processes.
Gunter Stober, Jorge L. Chau, Juha Vierinen, Christoph Jacobi, and Sven Wilhelm
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 4891–4907, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-4891-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-4891-2018, 2018
Sabine Wüst, Thomas Offenwanger, Carsten Schmidt, Michael Bittner, Christoph Jacobi, Gunter Stober, Jeng-Hwa Yee, Martin G. Mlynczak, and James M. Russell III
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 2937–2947, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2937-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2937-2018, 2018
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OH*-spectrometer measurements allow the analysis of gravity wave ground-based periods, but spatial information cannot necessarily be deduced. We combine the approach of Wachter at al. (2015) in order to derive horizontal wavelengths (but based on only one OH* spectrometer) with additional information about wind and temperature and compute vertical wavelengths. Knowledge of these parameters is a precondition for the calculation of further information such as the wave group velocity.
Simone Dietmüller, Roland Eichinger, Hella Garny, Thomas Birner, Harald Boenisch, Giovanni Pitari, Eva Mancini, Daniele Visioni, Andrea Stenke, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, David A. Plummer, John Scinocca, Patrick Jöckel, Luke Oman, Makoto Deushi, Shibata Kiyotaka, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando Garcia, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Kane Adam Stone, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6699–6720, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6699-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6699-2018, 2018
Roland Eichinger, Gary Shaffer, Nelson Albarrán, Maisa Rojas, and Fabrice Lambert
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3481–3498, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3481-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3481-2017, 2017
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We reformulate the land biosphere of the reduced-complexity DCESS model by introducing three vegetation types and relating their latitudinal borders to global temperature change. This enhancement yields more realistic estimates of biosphere carbon cycling for cold conditions like the Last Glacial Maximum. As a first application we conduct transient simulations across the last glacial termination to estimate the importance of different processes on temperature, pCO2 and carbon isotope ratios.
Christoph Jacobi, Tatiana Ermakova, Daniel Mewes, and Alexander I. Pogoreltsev
Adv. Radio Sci., 15, 199–206, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-15-199-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-15-199-2017, 2017
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There is continuous interest in coupling processes between the lower and middle atmosphere. Here we analyse midlatitude winds measured by radar at 82–97 km and find that especially in February they are positively correlated with El Niño. The signal is strong for the upper altitudes accessible to the radar, but weakens below. The observations can be qualitatively reproduced by numerical experiments using a mechanistic global circulation model.
Friederike Lilienthal, Christoph Jacobi, Torsten Schmidt, Alejandro de la Torre, and Peter Alexander
Ann. Geophys., 35, 785–798, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-35-785-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-35-785-2017, 2017
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Gravity waves (GWs) are one of the most important dynamical features of the middle atmosphere that extends from the tropopause to the lower thermosphere. They originate from the troposphere and propagate upward. Here, we show the impact of the horizontal GW distribution in the lower atmosphere on the dynamics of the middle atmosphere using a global circulation model. As a result, we find that non-zonal GW structures can force additional stationary planetary waves.
Gunter Stober, Vivien Matthias, Christoph Jacobi, Sven Wilhelm, Josef Höffner, and Jorge L. Chau
Ann. Geophys., 35, 711–720, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-35-711-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-35-711-2017, 2017
Petr Šácha, Friederike Lilienthal, Christoph Jacobi, and Petr Pišoft
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15755–15775, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15755-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15755-2016, 2016
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With a mechanistic model for the middle and upper atmosphere we performed sensitivity simulations to study a possible impact of a localized GW breaking hotspot in the eastern Asia–northern Pacific region and also the possible influence of the spatial distribution of gravity wave activity on the middle atmospheric circulation and transport. We show implications for polar vortex stability, in situ PW generation and longitudinal variability and strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation.
William T. Ball, Aleš Kuchař, Eugene V. Rozanov, Johannes Staehelin, Fiona Tummon, Anne K. Smith, Timofei Sukhodolov, Andrea Stenke, Laura Revell, Ancelin Coulon, Werner Schmutz, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15485–15500, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15485-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15485-2016, 2016
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We find monthly, mid-latitude temperature changes above 40 km are related to ozone and temperature variations throughout the middle atmosphere. We develop an index to represent this atmospheric variability. In statistical analysis, the index can account for up to 60 % of variability in tropical temperature and ozone above 27 km. The uncertainties can be reduced by up to 35 % and 20 % in temperature and ozone, respectively. This index is an important tool to quantify current and future ozone recovery.
Ch. Jacobi, N. Samtleben, and G. Stober
Adv. Radio Sci., 14, 169–174, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-14-169-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-14-169-2016, 2016
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VHF meteor radar observations of mesosphere/lower thermosphere daily temperatures have been performed at Collm, Germany. The data have been analyzed with respect to long-period oscillations at time scales of 2 to 30 days. The results reveal that oscillations with periods of up to 6 days are more frequently observed during summer, while those with longer periods have larger amplitudes during winter. The results are comparable with analyses from radar wind measurements.
Christoph Jacobi, Norbert Jakowski, Gerhard Schmidtke, and Thomas N. Woods
Adv. Radio Sci., 14, 175–180, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-14-175-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-14-175-2016, 2016
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The ionospheric response to solar extreme ultraviolet variability is shown by simple proxies based on Solar Dynamics Observatory/Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment solar spectra. The daily proxies are compared with global mean total electron content. At time scales of the solar rotation up to about 40 days there is a time lag between EUV and TEC variability of about one day, with a tendency to increase for longer time scales.
Roland Eichinger, Gary Shaffer, Nelson Albarrán, Maisa Rojas, and Fabrice Lambert
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2015-190, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2015-190, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We apply the DCESS ESM to assess the process of Southern Ocean deep water upwelling as to whether it can explain the climate change between 17.5 and 14.5 kaBP. From a glacial climate state, which was generated under the guidance of proxy data records, transient climate simulations are conducted to analyse the impact of various parameters. This approach can explain parts but not all of the observed atmospheric variations in temperatures, carbon dioxide and carbon isotopes across that period.
P. Šácha, A. Kuchař, C. Jacobi, and P. Pišoft
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 13097–13112, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13097-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13097-2015, 2015
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In this study, we present a discovery of an internal gravity wave activity and breaking hotspot collocated with an area of anomalously low annual cycle amplitude and specific dynamics in the stratosphere over the Northeastern Pacific/Eastern Asia coastal region. The reasons why this particular IGW activity hotspot was not discovered before nor the specific dynamics of this region pointed out are discussed together with possible consequences on the middle atmospheric dynamics and transport.
F. Lilienthal and Ch. Jacobi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9917–9927, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9917-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9917-2015, 2015
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The quasi 2-day wave (QTDW), one of the most striking features in the mesosphere/lower thermosphere, is analyzed using meteor radar measurements at Collm (51°N, 13°E) during 2004-2014. The QTDW has periods lasting between 43 and 52h during strong summer bursts, and weaker enhancements are found during winter. A correlation between QTDW amplitudes and wind shear suggests baroclinic instability to be a likely forcing mechanism.
R. Eichinger, P. Jöckel, and S. Lossow
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7003–7015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7003-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7003-2015, 2015
A. Kuchar, P. Sacha, J. Miksovsky, and P. Pisoft
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 6879–6895, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6879-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6879-2015, 2015
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We have studied the solar cycle manifestation in the latest generation of the reanalysed data sets by the means of both linear and nonlinear attribution analyses. The study is supplemented by the discussion of the dynamical implications.
R. Eichinger, P. Jöckel, S. Brinkop, M. Werner, and S. Lossow
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5537–5555, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5537-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5537-2015, 2015
G. Schmidtke, Ch. Jacobi, B. Nikutowski, and Ch. Erhardt
Adv. Radio Sci., 12, 251–260, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-12-251-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-12-251-2014, 2014
F. Lilienthal and Ch. Jacobi
Adv. Radio Sci., 12, 205–210, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-12-205-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-12-205-2014, 2014
Ch. Jacobi
Adv. Radio Sci., 12, 161–165, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-12-161-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-12-161-2014, 2014
R. Eichinger and P. Jöckel
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1573–1582, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1573-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1573-2014, 2014
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Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Erika Coppola, Tommaso Alberti, Mathieu Vrac, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Marion Saint Lu, Andreia N. S. Hisi, Patrick Brockmann, Stavros Dafis, Gianmarco Mengaldo, and Robert Vautard
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 959–983, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024, 2024
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We introduce ClimaMeter, a tool offering real-time insights into extreme-weather events. Our tool unveils how climate change and natural variability affect these events, affecting communities worldwide. Our research equips policymakers and the public with essential knowledge, fostering informed decisions and enhancing climate resilience. We analysed two distinct events, showcasing ClimaMeter's global relevance.
Michael P. Byrne, William R. Boos, and Shineng Hu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 763–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-763-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-763-2024, 2024
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In this study we investigate why climate change is amplified in mountain regions, a phenomenon known as elevation-dependent warming (EDW). We examine EDW using observations and models and assess the roles of radiative forcing vs. internal variability in driving the historical signal. Using a forcing–feedback framework we also quantify for the first time the processes driving EDW on large scales. Our results have important implications for understanding future climate change in mountain regions.
Lisa Schielicke, Yidan Li, Jerome Schyns, Aaron Sperschneider, Jose Pablo Solano Marchini, and Christoph Peter Gatzen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 703–710, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-703-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-703-2024, 2024
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We present course contents and results of a 2-week educational block course with a focus on Cloud Model 1 (CM1) and 3D visualization. Through hands-on experience, students gained skills in setting up and customizing the model and visualizing its output in 3D. The research aimed to bridge the gap between classroom learning and practical applications, fostering a deeper understanding of convective processes and preparing students for future careers in the field.
Jonathan E. Martin and Taylor Norton
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 875–886, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-875-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-875-2023, 2023
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The polar and subtropical jets are important weather-producing features and influential governors of regional climate. This study considers trends in the waviness of the two jets in Southern Hemisphere winter using three data sets and reveals three important results: (1) the waviness of both jets has increased since about 1960, (2) only the maximum speed of the subtropical jet has increased, and (3) both the polar and subtropical jets have been shifting poleward over the last several decades.
Sonika Shahi, Jakob Abermann, Tiago Silva, Kirsty Langley, Signe Hillerup Larsen, Mikhail Mastepanov, and Wolfgang Schöner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 747–771, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-747-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-747-2023, 2023
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This study highlights how the sea ice variability in the Greenland Sea affects the terrestrial climate and the surface mass changes of peripheral glaciers of the Zackenberg region (ZR), Northeast Greenland, combining model output and observations. Our results show that the temporal evolution of sea ice influences the climate anomaly magnitude in the ZR. We also found that the changing temperature and precipitation patterns due to sea ice variability can affect the surface mass of the ice cap.
Georgios Fragkoulidis
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1381–1398, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1381-2022, 2022
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Assessing the seasonal distributions of local Rossby wave packet (RWP) amplitude, phase, and phase speed on reanalysis data of the 1979–2019 period reveals that patterns of robust trends emerge and vary substantially between seasons and regions. While an absence of covariance is evident between RWP amplitude and phase speed at decadal scales, the frequency of DJF large-amplitude quasi-stationary RWPs increases in several areas of the N Pacific and N America during 1999–2019.
Michael A. Barnes, Thando Ndarana, Michael Sprenger, and Willem A. Landman
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1291–1309, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1291-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1291-2022, 2022
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Stratospheric air can intrude into the troposphere and is associated with cyclonic development throughout the atmosphere. Through a highly idealized systematic approach, the effect that different intrusion characteristics have on surface cyclogenetic forcing is investigated. The proximity of stratospheric intrusions to the surface is shown to be the main factor in surface cyclogenetic forcing, whilst its width is an additional contributing factor.
Carlos Calvo-Sancho, Javier Díaz-Fernández, Yago Martín, Pedro Bolgiani, Mariano Sastre, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, Daniel Santos-Muñoz, José Ignacio Farrán, and María Luisa Martín
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1021–1036, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1021-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1021-2022, 2022
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Supercells are among the most complex and dangerous severe convective storms due to their associated phenomena (lightning, strong winds, large hail, flash floods, or tornadoes). In this survey we study the supercell synoptic configurations and convective environments in Spain using the atmospheric reanalysis ERA5. Supercells are grouped into hail (greater than 5 cm) and non-hail events in order to compare and analyze the two events. The results reveal statistically significant differences.
Adrian J. Simmons
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 777–809, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-777-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-777-2022, 2022
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This study of changes in temperature and wind since 1979 met its twin aims of (i) increasing confidence in some findings of the latest IPCC assessment and (ii) identifying changes that had received little or no previous attention. It reports a small overall intensification and shift in position of the North Atlantic jet stream and associated storms, and a strengthening of tropical upper-level easterlies. Increases in low-level winds over tropical and southern hemispheric oceans are confirmed.
Monika Feldmann, Urs Germann, Marco Gabella, and Alexis Berne
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1225–1244, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1225-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1225-2021, 2021
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Mesocyclones are the rotating updraught of supercell thunderstorms that present a particularly hazardous subset of thunderstorms. A first-time characterisation of the spatiotemporal occurrence of mesocyclones in the Alpine region is presented, using 5 years of Swiss operational radar data. We investigate parallels to hailstorms, particularly the influence of large-scale flow, daily cycles and terrain. Improving understanding of mesocyclones is valuable for risk assessment and warning purposes.
Dalton K. Sasaki, Carolina B. Gramcianinov, Belmiro Castro, and Marcelo Dottori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1149–1166, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1149-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1149-2021, 2021
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Extratropical cyclones are relevant in the western South Atlantic and influence the climate of ocean surface wave. Propagating atmospheric features from the South Pacific to the South Atlantic are relevant to the cyclones and waves, and its intensified westerlies lead to more cyclones and, as a consequence, to higher wave heights. The opposite happens with its weakening. These features are similar to the so-called Pacific South American patterns and present periods between 30 and 180 d.
Laurent Terray
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 971–989, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-971-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-971-2021, 2021
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Attribution of the causes of extreme temperature events has become active research due to the wide-ranging impacts of recent heat waves and cold spells. Here we show that a purely observational approach based on atmospheric circulation analogues and resampling provides a robust quantification of the various dynamic and thermodynamic contributions to specific extreme temperature events. The approach can easily be integrated in the toolbox of any real-time extreme event attribution system.
Claudia Christine Stephan and Alexis Mariaccia
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 359–372, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-359-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-359-2021, 2021
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Vertical motion on horizontal scales of a few hundred kilometers can influence cloud properties. This motion is difficult to measure directly but can be inferred from the area-averaged mass divergence. The latter can be derived from horizontal wind measurements at the area’s perimeter. This study derives vertical properties of area-averaged divergence from an extensive network of atmospheric soundings and proposes an explanation for the variation of divergence magnitudes with area size.
José J. Hernández Ayala and Rafael Méndez-Tejeda
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 745–757, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-745-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-745-2020, 2020
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This study focused on exploring if off-season tropical cyclones, those that develop outside of the peak months, have been increasing over time in the Atlantic Ocean and Pacific Ocean basins and if that higher frequency could be explained by climate variability or change. We found that off-season tropical cyclones are exhibiting an increase in total numbers by decade in the North Atlantic and East Pacific ocean basins and that climate change explained much of the increasing trends over time.
Cited articles
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Charlton, A. J. and Polvani, L. M.: A new look at stratospheric sudden warmings. Part I: Climatology and modeling benchmarks, J. Climate, 20, 449–469, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3996.1, 2007. a, b, c
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Christiansen, B.: The blessing of dimensionality for the analysis of climate data, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 409–422, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-409-2021, 2021. a
Cohen, N. Y., Gerber, E. P., and Bühler, O.: What Drives the Brewer–Dobson Circulation?, J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 3837–3855, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-14-0021.1, 2014. a
Danabasoglu, G., Lamarque, J.-F., Bacmeister, J., Bailey, D., DuVivier, A., Edwards, J., Emmons, L., Fasullo, J., Garcia, R., Gettelman, A., Hannay, C., Holland, M. M., Large, W. G., Lauritzen, P. H., Lawrence, D. M., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Lindsay, K., Lipscomb, W. H., Mills, M. J., Neale, R., Oleson, K. W., Otto-Bliesner, B., Phillips, A. S., Sacks, W., Tilmes, S., van Kampenhout, L., Vertenstein, M., Bertini, A., Dennis, J., Deser, C., Fischer, C., Fox-Kemper, B., Kay, J. E., Kinnison, D., Kushner, P. J., Larson, V. E., Long, M. C., Mickelson, S., Moore, J. K., Nienhouse, E., Polvani, L., Rasch, P. J., and Strand, W. G.: The community earth system model version 2 (CESM2), J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS001916, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001916, 2020. a
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Donner, L. J., Wyman, B. L., Hemler, R. S., Horowitz, L. W., Ming, Y., Zhao, M., Golaz, J.-C., Ginoux, P., Lin, S.-J., Schwarzkopf, M. D., Austin, J. Alaka, G., Cooke, W. F., Delworth, T. L., Freidenreich, S. M., Gordon, C. T., Griffies, S. M., Held, I. M., Hurlin, W. J., Klein, S. A., Knutson, T. R., Langenhorst, A. R., Lee, H.-C., Lin, Y., Magi, B. I., Malyshev, S. L., Milly, P. C. D., Naik, V., Nath, M. J., Pincus, R., Ploshay, J. J., Ramaswamy, V., Seman, C. J., Shevliakova, E., Sirutis, J. J., Stern, W. F., Stouffer, R. J., Wilson, R. J., Winton, M., Wittenberg, A. T., and Zeng, F.: The dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component AM3 of the GFDL global coupled model CM3, J. Climate, 24, 3484–3519, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3964.1, 2011. a
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Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a
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Haase, S. and Matthes, K.: The importance of interactive chemistry for stratosphere–troposphere coupling, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 3417–3432, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3417-2019, 2019. a
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Karami, K., Mehrdad, S., and Jacobi, C.: Response of the resolved planetary wave activity and amplitude to turned off gravity waves in the UA-ICON general circulation model, J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phy., 241, 105967, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2022.105967, 2022. a
Karami, K., Borchert, S., Eichinger, R., Jacobi, C., Kuchar, A., Mehrdad, S., Pisoft, P., and Sacha, P.: The Climatology of Elevated Stratopause Events in the UA-ICON Model and the Contribution of Gravity Waves, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 128, e2022JD037907, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037907, 2023. a
King, A. D., Butler, A. H., Jucker, M., Earl, N. O., and Rudeva, I.: Observed relationships between sudden stratospheric warmings and European climate extremes, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 13943–13961, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030480, 2019. a
Kirchmeier-Young, M. C., Zwiers, F. W., and Gillett, N. P.: Attribution of extreme events in Arctic sea ice extent, J. Climate, 30, 553–571, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0412.1, 2017. a
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Kuchar, A. and Öhlert, M.: VACILT/reliability_LE: Fourth release of our code repository related to reliability of large ensembles, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10620326, 2024. a, b
Kuchar, A., Sacha, P., Eichinger, R., Jacobi, C., Pisoft, P., and Rieder, H.: On the impact of Himalaya-induced gravity waves on the polar vortex, Rossby wave activity and ozone, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-474, 2022. a
Langematz, U., Meul, S., Grunow, K., Romanowsky, E., Oberländer, S., Abalichin, J., and Kubin, A.: Future Arctic temperature and ozone: The role of stratospheric composition changes, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 2092–2112, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021100, 2014. a
Lawrence, Z. D., Perlwitz, J., Butler, A. H., Manney, G. L., Newman, P. A., Lee, S. H., and Nash, E. R.: The remarkably strong Arctic stratospheric polar vortex of winter 2020: Links to record-breaking Arctic oscillation and ozone loss, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2020JD033271, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033271, 2020. a
Manzini, E., Karpechko, A. Y., Anstey, J., Baldwin, M., Black, R., Cagnazzo, C., Calvo, N., Charlton-Perez, A., Christiansen, B., Davini, P., Gerber, E., Giorgetta, M., Gray, L., Hardiman, S. C., Lee, Y.-Y., Marsh, D. R., McDaniel, B. A., Purich, A., Scaife, A. A., Shindell, D., Son, S.-W., Watanabe, S., and Zappa, G.: Northern winter climate change: Assessment of uncertainty in CMIP5 projections related to stratosphere-troposphere coupling, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 7979–7998, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021403, 2014. a, b
Matthewman, N. J. and Esler, J. G.: Stratospheric Sudden Warmings as Self-Tuning Resonances. Part I: Vortex Splitting Events, J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 2481–2504, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-11-07.1, 2011. a
Maycock, A. C. and Hitchcock, P.: Do split and displacement sudden stratospheric warmings have different annular mode signatures?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 10943–10951, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066754, 2015. a
Mitchell, D. M., Charlton-Perez, A. J., and Gray, L. J.: Characterizing the Variability and Extremes of the Stratospheric Polar Vortices Using 2D Moment Analysis, J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 1194–1213, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAS3555.1, 2011. a, b, c
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Short summary
Exploring the polar vortex's impact on climate, the study evaluates model simulations against the ERA5 reanalysis data. Revelations about model discrepancies in simulating disruptive stratospheric warmings and vortex behavior highlight the need for refined model simulations of past climate. By enhancing our understanding of these dynamics, the research contributes to more reliable climate projections of the polar vortex with the impact on surface climate.
Exploring the polar vortex's impact on climate, the study evaluates model simulations against...
