Weather and Climate Dynamics
Weather and Climate Dynamics
WCD
Articles | Volume 6, issue 3
Articles | Volume 6, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1027-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1027-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 6, issue 3
Research article
 | 
29 Sep 2025
Research article |  | 29 Sep 2025

How relevant are frequency changes of weather regimes for understanding climate change signals in surface precipitation in the North Atlantic–European sector? A conceptual analysis with CESM1 large ensemble simulations

Luise J. Fischer, David N. Bresch, Dominik Büeler, Christian M. Grams, Robin Noyelle, Matthias Röthlisberger, and Heini Wernli

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Short summary
Atmospheric flows over the North Atlantic can be meaningfully classified into weather regimes, and climate simulations suggest that the regime frequencies might change in the future. We provide a quantitative framework that helps assess whether these regime frequency changes are relevant to understanding climate change signals in precipitation. At least in our example application, in most regions, regime frequency changes explain little of the projected precipitation changes.
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